MLB DFS Picks
Projections are algorithmically generated. If anything looks off, let us know in Discord.
Our MLB DFS value picks compare each player's projected fantasy output to their DraftKings or FanDuel salary. Positive-value players are priced below their projection, giving you salary relief to fit premium plays elsewhere in your lineup. Picks update after confirmed lineups are released.
Focus on players with positive value scores — they are priced below their projected output, giving you salary flexibility to stack premium plays at other positions.
📊 DFS Value Picks
Ranked by Projection vs. Salary
TEX · P
COL · P
CWS · P
See all 29 value plays
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Unlock DFS Picks Free →| Player | Pos | Projection | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JACK LEITER
TEX |
P | 11.6 | -5.09 | Proj: 11.6 pts · 23.8% opp K% |
|
TOMOYUKI SUGANO
COL |
P | 4.2 | -5.62 | Proj: 4.2 pts · 16.0% opp K% |
|
ANTHONY KAY
CWS |
P | 4.2 | -6.33 | Proj: 4.2 pts · 17.2% opp K% |
See all 29 value playsStart your free 7-day trial to unlock all 29 value plays Unlock DFS Picks Free → | ||||
MLB DFS Projections & Value Picks
Our MLB DFS value picks are ranked by the difference between a player's projected DraftKings points and their expected output based on salary (plus/minus). A positive value score means the player is priced below their projection — these are the plays that provide salary relief in your lineup construction.
Position-by-Position Picks
For detailed DraftKings and FanDuel picks broken down by position, use the platform-specific links above. Each position page ranks players by projected points per dollar of salary.
Pitcher DFS Strategy
For pitcher-specific analysis, visit our CSW Analysis page which tracks Called Strike + Whiff rate — the strongest predictor of strikeout performance in daily fantasy baseball.
Data Source & Methodology
DFS projections powered by MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant, salaries from DraftKings and FanDuel, lineups confirmed via MLB Stats API. Updated daily by 11am ET.
Disclaimer
All projections on this page are generated algorithmically based on statistical models, season averages, and projected playing time. These projections are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
The algorithm may not reflect recent injuries, lineup changes, rest days, or other factors that affect outcomes. Lines and odds change frequently — always confirm current numbers with your sportsbook before placing any wagers.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. You assume all risk associated with any wagers you place. Only bet with money you can afford to lose.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does DFS value mean in baseball?
- DFS value (also called plus/minus) measures the difference between a player's projected fantasy points and what their salary 'should' produce based on the expected points-per-dollar ratio. A player projected for 35 DraftKings points at a $5,000 salary has strong value if the league average for $5,000 players produces only 28 points. Positive value (+7 in this case) means the player is underpriced.
- How are MLB DFS projections calculated?
- Our MLB DFS projections are built from MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data adjusted for today's starting lineup, opposing pitcher quality (wOBA allowed, K rate), park factor, batting order position, and platoon splits (ISO vs. LHP vs. RHP). Pitchers are projected using K/9 rate and opponent strikeout tendency. Projections are updated daily after lineup confirmation.
- What salary range has the best value in MLB DFS?
- Mid-tier hitters ($3,500-$5,500 on DraftKings) typically offer the best value in MLB DFS because ownership is lower and the ceiling relative to salary is highest. Stars ($6,000+) are owned by 30-40% of lineups in large tournaments, crushing upside. True budget plays (under $3,000) usually have ceiling limitations. Building around 2-3 mid-tier value plays while spending up at pitcher is a winning tournament structure.