How is FTA's NBA ownership accuracy measured?

For every settled DraftKings and FanDuel slate, FTA compares the ownership percentage it showed on the NBA DFS ownership page at slate lock against the real, measured percentage of tournament lineups that rostered that player. The gap between those two numbers, averaged across every graded player, is the mean absolute error (MAE) shown on this page and shaded on the calendar below, day by day.

What counts as FTA's projection?

The ownership percentage FTA projected for that player at slate lock — never revised afterward. FTA grades the exact number it served whenever that capture is available, and the model's own pre-lock prediction for any older graded slate, so this page shows the full track record rather than only the slates settled since that capture began.

How often does this ownership accuracy page update?

Whenever FTA ingests new settled contest results. There's no fixed daily schedule — a newly graded slate's numbers roll into the calendar and averages shown here as soon as its results are processed.

Can I see tonight's NBA ownership projections instead of past accuracy?

Yes — NBA DFS ownership projections tonight covers live, pre-lock numbers for the current slate. This page only covers slates that have already been played and settled.

NBA DFS Ownership Accuracy

See how close FTA's NBA DraftKings and FanDuel ownership projections come to real tournament ownership, slate by slate.

See tonight's NBA ownership projections →

25 graded days this season

Headline accuracy (classic slates)

3.2 points avg error

16,957 players graded

This page grades FTA's own NBA ownership projections against what the field actually did once each settled DraftKings and FanDuel slate locked — real measured error, not a claim.

FTA's ownership projections are built for large-field GPP tournaments. Actual ownership can differ significantly from contest to contest (field size, entry fee, contest type), so a projection can be accurate for the big tournaments and still miss in a smaller or different contest.

DraftKings · Classic

3.2 pts avg error · 7,900 players graded
DraftKings · Showdown (FLEX/UTIL)

5.6 pts avg error · 2,591 players graded
DraftKings · Showdown (Captain/MVP)

2.0 pts avg error · 1,676 players graded
FanDuel · Classic

3.2 pts avg error · 9,057 players graded
FanDuel · Showdown (FLEX/UTIL)

7.7 pts avg error · 1,686 players graded
FanDuel · Showdown (Captain/MVP)

2.9 pts avg error · 939 players graded

Weekly accuracy trend (classic slates) NBA's weekly average error, on classic slates.

Day-by-day accuracy calendar (classic slates)

Shade and number show that day's average error across every graded NBA classic slate. Pick a day to see its slates.

November 2026

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Biggest hits & misses: last settled NBA slate

DraftKings showdown slate, November 14, 2026.

Closest calls

Biggest misses

How accurate are FTA's NBA DFS ownership projections?

Over the last 30 days, FTA's NBA DraftKings/FanDuel ownership projections, on classic slates, were within 3.2 points of the field's real ownership on average, across 16,957 graded player projections.

On single-game showdown slates, where ownership concentrates on a handful of players, the error was 4.9 points.

See NBA DFS ownership projections tonight →

See NBA ownership history by past slate →

Methodology: "Projected" is the ownership percentage FTA showed on NBA's DFS ownership page at slate lock, never revised afterward. "Actual" is the measured share of real tournament lineups that rostered a player, from ingested contest results. FTA calls this gap the average error throughout this page — statisticians know it as MAE (mean absolute error).

Frequently Asked Questions

How is FTA's NBA ownership accuracy measured?: For every settled DraftKings and FanDuel slate, FTA compares the ownership percentage it showed on the NBA DFS ownership page at slate lock against the real, measured percentage of tournament lineups that rostered that player. The gap between those two numbers, averaged across every graded player, is the mean absolute error (MAE) shown on this page and shaded on the calendar below, day by day.
Why can actual ownership differ from your projections?: FTA's ownership projections are built for large-field GPP tournaments. Actual ownership can differ significantly from contest to contest (field size, entry fee, contest type), so a projection can be accurate for the big tournaments and still miss in a smaller or different contest.
What counts as FTA's projection?: The ownership percentage FTA projected for that player at slate lock — never revised afterward. FTA grades the exact number it served whenever that capture is available, and the model's own pre-lock prediction for any older graded slate, so this page shows the full track record rather than only the slates settled since that capture began.
How often does this ownership accuracy page update?: Whenever FTA ingests new settled contest results. There's no fixed daily schedule — a newly graded slate's numbers roll into the calendar and averages shown here as soon as its results are processed.
Can I see tonight's NBA ownership projections instead of past accuracy?: Yes — NBA DFS ownership projections tonight covers live, pre-lock numbers for the current slate. This page only covers slates that have already been played and settled.