NHL DFS Sims

What is a DFS sim?

A DFS sim plays out tonight's NHL slate thousands of times. Each run draws a score for every skater and goalie from his projection, ceiling and floor, lets linemates, power-play units and each goalie and his opponents move together, and then builds the best lineup the salary cap allows. Count how often each player lands in that lineup and you have a win-equity read that one projection can't give you.

Optimal %

The share of simulated slates in which the player lands in the single highest-scoring lineup.

Leverage

Optimal % minus projected ownership, in percentage points. A positive number means the sims like him more than the field will roster him.

Boom %

How often the player reaches the high end of his range, a big night for his salary.

Bust %

How often the player lands in the low end of his range, a night that sinks a lineup.

Std Dev

How widely his simulated scores spread around his average. A larger number means a swingier night.

Ceiling / Floor

The high and low ends of his simulated scores, taken from the same runs.

Preview

The free 25-slate snapshot taken each morning at 9 AM ET, shown to everyone.

How FTA runs Sims

FTA simulates each slate 2,000 times. Every player's score is drawn from his projection, with a spread set by his ceiling and floor.

Players in the same game are correlated. Linemates and a power-play unit tend to score together, and a goalie has a good night when the opposing skaters don't, so those players rise and fall together in the same simulated slate.

Sims refresh at a few set points rather than all day: a morning run, one about two hours before puck drop, one just before the lock window as lines settle, and one more if the starting goalies change, then freeze at lock. Every number reflects the data as of the run time shown on the page.

Sims vs an optimizer

An optimizer takes one set of projections and returns the highest-projected roster. Sims ask a different question: across many possible versions of the night, who shows up in the best lineup most often? Use Sims to decide which players deserve exposure, then run those plays through the optimizer to build the lineups. Start with the NHL DFS lineup optimizer .

How to use Optimal % and Leverage

1. Pick your contest type. In a tournament (GPP) you want players who win often and are rostered less. In a cash game you want steady scorers and a starting goalie, so favor a high Optimal % and a low Bust %.
2. Find the core by position. Read the Optimal % in each position card. The centers, wingers and defensemen at the top of the list, and the goalie with the best number, are the players who show up in the best lineup most often.
3. Check Leverage for the contrarian angle. A positive Leverage means the sims like a player more than the field will roster him. After a late lineup change, a skater who moves up to a top line or the first power-play unit can show a large gap before ownership catches up.
4. Build with the optimizer. Take your favorite plays into the lineup optimizer, set your exposure, and stack linemates from the same line or power-play unit. Then press Run contest sim on the optimizer's Lineups tab to see how your lineups would finish against a tournament or cash field.

Run Sims with your own AI

Annual + AI/MCP members can ask Claude or ChatGPT, through FTA's MCP connector, to pull Sims results and to simulate up to 10 of their own lineups against a tournament or cash field. Optimizer members get the same simulation from the Run contest sim button on the Lineups tab.