How is FTA's NHL ownership accuracy measured?

For every settled DraftKings and FanDuel slate, FTA compares the ownership percentage it showed on the NHL DFS ownership page at slate lock against the real, measured percentage of tournament lineups that rostered that player. The gap between those two numbers, averaged across every graded player, is the mean absolute error (MAE) shown on this page and shaded on the calendar below, day by day.

What counts as FTA's projection?

The ownership percentage FTA projected for that player at slate lock — never revised afterward. FTA grades the exact number it served whenever that capture is available, and the model's own pre-lock prediction for any older graded slate, so this page shows the full track record rather than only the slates settled since that capture began.

How often does this ownership accuracy page update?

Whenever FTA ingests new settled contest results. There's no fixed daily schedule — a newly graded slate's numbers roll into the calendar and averages shown here as soon as its results are processed.

Can I see tonight's NHL ownership projections instead of past accuracy?

Yes — NHL DFS ownership projections tonight covers live, pre-lock numbers for the current slate. This page only covers slates that have already been played and settled.

NHL DFS Ownership Accuracy

See how close FTA's NHL DraftKings and FanDuel ownership projections come to real tournament ownership, slate by slate.

See tonight's NHL ownership projections →

41 graded days this season

Headline accuracy (classic slates)

2.4 points avg error

18,194 players graded

This page grades FTA's own NHL ownership projections against what the field actually did once each settled DraftKings and FanDuel slate locked — real measured error, not a claim.

FTA's ownership projections are built for large-field GPP tournaments. Actual ownership can differ significantly from contest to contest (field size, entry fee, contest type), so a projection can be accurate for the big tournaments and still miss in a smaller or different contest.

DraftKings · Classic

2.4 pts avg error · 12,054 players graded
DraftKings · Showdown (FLEX/UTIL)

3.6 pts avg error · 2,819 players graded
DraftKings · Showdown (Captain/MVP)

2.5 pts avg error · 1,617 players graded
FanDuel · Classic

2.6 pts avg error · 6,140 players graded
FanDuel · Showdown (FLEX/UTIL)

7.1 pts avg error · 601 players graded
FanDuel · Showdown (Captain/MVP)

4.9 pts avg error · 240 players graded

Weekly accuracy trend (classic slates) NHL's weekly average error, on classic slates.

Day-by-day accuracy calendar (classic slates)

Shade and number show that day's average error across every graded NHL classic slate. Pick a day to see its slates.

November 2026

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Biggest hits & misses: last settled NHL slate

DraftKings showdown slate, November 12, 2026.

Closest calls

Biggest misses

How accurate are FTA's NHL DFS ownership projections?

Over the last 30 days, FTA's NHL DraftKings/FanDuel ownership projections, on classic slates, were within 2.4 points of the field's real ownership on average, across 18,194 graded player projections.

On single-game showdown slates, where ownership concentrates on a handful of players, the error was 3.7 points.

See NHL DFS ownership projections tonight →

See NHL ownership history by past slate →

Methodology: "Projected" is the ownership percentage FTA showed on NHL's DFS ownership page at slate lock, never revised afterward. "Actual" is the measured share of real tournament lineups that rostered a player, from ingested contest results. FTA calls this gap the average error throughout this page — statisticians know it as MAE (mean absolute error).

Frequently Asked Questions

How is FTA's NHL ownership accuracy measured?: For every settled DraftKings and FanDuel slate, FTA compares the ownership percentage it showed on the NHL DFS ownership page at slate lock against the real, measured percentage of tournament lineups that rostered that player. The gap between those two numbers, averaged across every graded player, is the mean absolute error (MAE) shown on this page and shaded on the calendar below, day by day.
Why can actual ownership differ from your projections?: FTA's ownership projections are built for large-field GPP tournaments. Actual ownership can differ significantly from contest to contest (field size, entry fee, contest type), so a projection can be accurate for the big tournaments and still miss in a smaller or different contest.
What counts as FTA's projection?: The ownership percentage FTA projected for that player at slate lock — never revised afterward. FTA grades the exact number it served whenever that capture is available, and the model's own pre-lock prediction for any older graded slate, so this page shows the full track record rather than only the slates settled since that capture began.
How often does this ownership accuracy page update?: Whenever FTA ingests new settled contest results. There's no fixed daily schedule — a newly graded slate's numbers roll into the calendar and averages shown here as soon as its results are processed.
Can I see tonight's NHL ownership projections instead of past accuracy?: Yes — NHL DFS ownership projections tonight covers live, pre-lock numbers for the current slate. This page only covers slates that have already been played and settled.