Home Run Props Today
Projections are algorithmically generated. If anything looks off, let us know in Discord.
Some lineups are not yet confirmed
Wait for confirmed lineups before placing bets — projections may change once official lineups are posted. (20 of 20 teams unconfirmed)
Top Home Run Props
103 players
See all 103 home run props
Start your free 7-day trial to unlock all 103 home run props
Unlock Home Run Props Free →
Disclaimer
All projections on this page are generated algorithmically based on statistical models, season averages, and projected playing time. These projections are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
The algorithm may not reflect recent injuries, lineup changes, rest days, or other factors that affect outcomes. Lines and odds change frequently — always confirm current numbers with your sportsbook before placing any wagers.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. You assume all risk associated with any wagers you place. Only bet with money you can afford to lose.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org
MLB Home Run Props Today
Our home run prop page shows live sportsbook odds alongside FTA projected HR probability and expected value (EV). A positive EV means our model thinks the prop is priced better than it should be.
Understanding HR Prop Odds
Positive odds (e.g., +300) indicate the profit on a $100 bet. Negative odds (e.g., -500) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. Lower absolute odds on the over side mean the sportsbook considers a home run more likely for that player.
+200
Strong HR Candidate
(33% implied probability)
+350
Average HR Odds
(22% implied probability)
+600
Long Shot
(14% implied probability)
Pitcher Matchup & Batting Order
Handedness splits are critical for MLB home run props. Most hitters show significant ISO differences against left-handed vs. right-handed pitching — always check the split that matches today's opposing starter. Batting order position matters because players hitting 1-4 get roughly one extra plate appearance per game compared to the 7-9 spots, which directly increases home run probability.
When to Bet MLB Home Run Props
Wait for lineup confirmation before placing any HR prop — a batter dropping from 2nd to 7th in the order changes his expected plate appearances and overall value. Target games in hitter-friendly parks (park factor above 1.05) where wind is blowing out to center or left field. Compare lines across sportsbooks to find the best number.
Data Source & Methodology
Lines and odds sourced from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars via the Ball Don't Lie API. Data refreshes throughout the day as lines move.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is Isolated Power (ISO) in baseball?
- Isolated Power (ISO) measures a batter's raw power by calculating extra-base hit production beyond singles. The formula is: ISO = Slugging Percentage - Batting Average. A .200+ ISO is considered excellent; .150-.200 is above average. We split ISO by opposing pitcher handedness (ISO vs. LHP and ISO vs. RHP) to match today's specific matchup.
- How does park factor affect home run props?
- Park factor measures how a stadium affects home run rates relative to a neutral environment. A park factor of 1.10 means 10% more home runs are hit there than average. Coors Field (Colorado) has the highest park factor in MLB; Oracle Park (San Francisco) and Petco Park (San Diego) suppress home runs significantly. Today's park factor in our rankings also incorporates weather and wind conditions.
- What batting order position is best for home run props?
- Cleanup hitters (4th) and 3-hole hitters get the most RBI opportunities, but leadoff and 2-hole hitters see the most plate appearances per game. For home run props, we favor hitters batting 2nd through 5th — they combine plate appearances with protection in the lineup, maximizing the number of at-bats in favorable counts. We penalize hitters batting 7th or lower due to fewer opportunities.