Home Run Props Today
Ready to Take Your DFS Game to the Next Level?
Join FTA+ today and get access to our premium lineup optimizer, ownership projections, advanced NBA player analytics, prop betting projections, and more.
Sign Up Today →Check back when the MLB season is underway.
How We Rank Home Run Props Today
Our home run prop rankings use Isolated Power (ISO) — a measure of a batter's raw power — split by the opposing pitcher's handedness (left vs. right). A batter with a .250+ ISO against right-handed pitchers in a hitter-friendly park is a strong HR prop candidate. Each prop is scored by combining ISO, park factor, and batting order into a single composite ranking.
Understanding ISO and Park Factor
ISO (Isolated Power) measures extra-base hit ability by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. League-average ISO is around .150 — anything above .200 indicates above-average power, and .250+ is elite. Park factor adjusts for how each stadium affects home run rates: a factor above 1.0 favors hitters, below 1.0 favors pitchers. Coors Field, Great American Ball Park, and Yankee Stadium consistently grade above 1.05, while Oracle Park and Petco Park suppress home runs. We use today's park factor which accounts for weather and wind conditions.
Pitcher Matchup and Batting Order
Handedness splits are critical for MLB home run props. Most hitters show significant ISO differences against left-handed vs. right-handed pitching — always check the split that matches today's opposing starter. Batting order position matters because players hitting 1-4 get roughly one extra plate appearance per game compared to the 7-9 spots, which directly increases home run probability. Our rankings weight top-of-the-order hitters accordingly.
When to Bet MLB Home Run Props
Wait for lineup confirmation before placing any HR prop — a batter dropping from 2nd to 7th in the order changes his expected plate appearances and overall value. Target games in hitter-friendly parks (park factor above 1.05) where wind is blowing out to center or left field. Avoid pitchers with high ground-ball rates, as they suppress fly balls and limit home run upside. Upgrade to FTA+ to unlock the full ranked list with composite scores.