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NFL DFS Sims

Free Optimal %, Leverage and Boom/Bust from thousands of simulated DraftKings & FanDuel lineups.

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281 DraftKings & 0 FanDuel players simulated

Updated 12:52 AM ET

NFL Sims preview for the Week 10 Main slate (DraftKings), updated 12:52 AM ET: the top plays by Optimal % in the 25-slate preview are Emmett Johnson (52.0%, -11.0 pp leverage), Josh Allen (28.0%, +16.2 pp leverage), Bijan Robinson (28.0%, -1.8 pp leverage).

Preview: 25 simulated slates, snapshot from 12:52 AM ET. FTA+ members see the live 2,000-slate run, refreshed through the day as projections change, more often in the final hours before lock.

Unlock the live 2,000-slate Sims

QB

21 players

RB

72 players

WR

100 players

TE

68 players

DST

20 players

Go beyond the preview

Live-precision Leverage, Top Stacks and the sortable table are for FTA+ members.

Unlock the live 2,000-slate Sims Run these plays in the optimizer

Check projected ownership See today's free optimal lineup

Who do the Sims like on DraftKings this week?

Josh Allen leads quarterbacks at 28.0% Optimal%, +16.2 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Tyler Shough is next at 16.0%, then Cam Ward at 8.0%.

Emmett Johnson leads running backs at 52.0% Optimal%, -11.0 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Bijan Robinson is next at 28.0%, then Kyren Williams at 28.0%.

Drake London leads wide receivers at 28.0% Optimal%, +9.6 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Tetairoa McMillan is next at 24.0%, then Ceedee Lamb at 20.0%.

Colby Parkinson leads tight ends at 24.0% Optimal%, +8.3 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Brock Bowers is next at 16.0%, then Harold Fannin at 16.0%.

Buffalo Bills leads defense/special teams units at 16.0% Optimal%, +12.0 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Indianapolis Colts is next at 16.0%, then Green Bay Packers at 12.0%.

DFS sims run thousands of simulated slates to see how often each player's lineup actually wins, not just how many points he's projected to score, so a cheap player with swing-game upside can show real win equity even on a modest average projection.

Optimal % is how often a player lands in the single highest-scoring lineup across every simulated slate. Leverage weighs that rate against his projected ownership, so a positive number flags a player the field is likely to under-roster relative to how often he actually wins.

Want the raw projections and ownership the sims are built from? See NFL DFS projections and NFL ownership projections, see today's free optimal NFL lineup, or build your own with the NFL DFS lineup optimizer.

What is a DFS sim?

A DFS sim plays out a slate thousands of times. Each run draws a score for every player from his projection, lets a quarterback and his pass catchers rise and fall together, and then builds the best lineup the salary cap allows. Count how often each player lands in that lineup and you get a read on tournament value that a weekly projection can't give you.

Optimal %
The share of simulated slates in which the player lands in the single highest-scoring lineup.
Leverage
Optimal % minus projected ownership, in percentage points. A positive number means the sims like him more than the field will roster him.
Boom %
How often the player reaches the high end of his range, a big week for his position.
Bust %
How often the player lands in the low end of his range, a week that sinks a lineup.
Std Dev
How widely his simulated scores spread around his average. A larger number means a swingier week.
Ceiling / Floor
The high and low ends of his simulated scores, taken from the same runs.
Preview
The free 25-slate snapshot taken each morning at 9 AM ET, shown to everyone.

How FTA runs Sims

FTA simulates each slate 2,000 times. Every player's score is drawn from his projection, with a spread set by his ceiling and floor.

Players in the same game are correlated. A quarterback's big game lifts his receivers, and a shootout lifts both offenses, so those players tend to boom or bust together in the same simulated slate.

Each simulated slate is solved for its best lineup, and the results are tallied per player. Sims rerun through the day as projections change, more often in the final hours before kickoff, then freeze at lock. Every number reflects the data as of the run time shown on the page.

Sims vs an optimizer

An optimizer takes one set of projections and returns the highest-projected roster. Sims ask a different question: across many possible versions of the week, who shows up in the best lineup most often? Use Sims to decide which players deserve exposure, then run those plays through the optimizer to build the lineups. Start with the NFL DFS lineup optimizer or see today's free optimal NFL lineup.

How to use Optimal % and Leverage

  1. Pick your contest type. In a large-field tournament (GPP) you need players who win often and are rostered less. In a cash game you want steady scorers, so lean on a high Optimal % and a low Bust %.
  2. Find the core by position. Read the Optimal % in each position card. The quarterback and running back at the top of the list are the players who show up in the best lineup most often.
  3. Check Leverage for the contrarian angle. A positive Leverage means the sims like a player more than the field will roster him. At wide receiver and tight end, where ownership is spread thin, that gap is often the biggest.
  4. Build with the optimizer. Carry your favorite plays into the lineup optimizer, set your exposure, and stack the quarterback with his pass catchers.

Run Sims with your own AI

Annual + AI/MCP members can pull Sims results into Claude or ChatGPT through FTA's MCP connector today. A lineup-sim tool for the connector is coming soon.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a DFS sim?

A DFS sim plays out an NFL slate thousands of times. Each run draws a score for every player from his projection, ceiling and floor, lets a quarterback and his pass catchers move together, then builds the best lineup the salary cap allows. Tallying who lands in that lineup shows tournament value that a weekly projection alone can't.

What is Optimal % in NFL DFS?

Optimal % is the share of simulated slates in which a player is in the single highest-scoring lineup. A high number means he is a frequent piece of the best possible roster, not just a solid average projection.

What is leverage in NFL DFS?

Leverage is Optimal % minus projected ownership, in percentage points. A positive number means the sims like a player more than the field will roster him, which is the gap that separates a tournament lineup from the crowd. A negative number means he is likely to be more popular than his win rate supports.

How many sims does FTA run?

FTA+ members see the live run of 2,000 simulated slates per DraftKings and FanDuel board. The free preview uses 25 simulated slates from a snapshot taken each morning.

How often are NFL Sims updated?

The live run refreshes through the day from 9 AM ET as projections change, more often in the final hours before kickoff, then freezes at lock. Every number on the page is tied to the run time shown above the table.

Is the Sims preview free?

Yes. Everyone can see every player's Optimal %, Leverage, Boom % and Bust % from the 25-slate preview, taken at 9 AM ET. FTA+ members get the live 2,000-slate run, live-precision Leverage, Top Stacks and the sortable full table.

How do NFL Sims handle stacks?

Players in the same game are correlated in the sims, so a quarterback's big game lifts his receivers and a shootout lifts both offenses. FTA+ members see Top Stacks scored as a unit: QB plus one, QB plus two, and bring-back combinations.

Can I use NFL Sims with the lineup optimizer?

Yes. Use Sims to choose which players deserve exposure, then build lineups in the NFL DFS optimizer. Sims show who wins most often; the optimizer builds the lineups around those plays. You can also check projected ownership before you lock.

Can I run Sims from Claude or ChatGPT?

Annual + AI/MCP members can pull Sims results into Claude or ChatGPT through FTA's MCP connector today. A lineup-sim tool for the connector is coming soon.
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