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NBA DFS Sims

Free Optimal %, Leverage and Boom/Bust from thousands of simulated DraftKings & FanDuel lineups.

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395 DraftKings & 0 FanDuel players simulated

Updated 12:33 AM ET

NBA Sims preview for the Nov 15 Main slate (DraftKings), updated 12:33 AM ET: the top plays by Optimal % in the 25-slate preview are Tyler Herro (32.0%, +15.3 pp leverage), Ryan Rollins (24.0%, -4.8 pp leverage), Reed Sheppard (24.0%, -3.0 pp leverage).

Preview: 25 simulated slates, snapshot from 12:33 AM ET. FTA+ members see the live 2,000-slate run, refreshed through the day as projections change, more often in the final hours before lock.

Unlock the live 2,000-slate Sims

PG

27 players

SG

41 players

SF

42 players

PF

32 players

C

26 players

G

52 players

F

63 players

UTIL

112 players

Go beyond the preview

Live-precision Leverage, Top Stacks and the sortable table are for FTA+ members.

Unlock the live 2,000-slate Sims Run these plays in the optimizer

Check projected ownership See today's free optimal lineup

Who do the Sims like on DraftKings tonight?

Tyler Herro leads point guards at 32.0% Optimal%, +15.3 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Ryan Rollins is next at 24.0%, then Trae Young at 20.0%.

Tyler Herro leads shooting guards at 32.0% Optimal%, +15.3 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Reed Sheppard is next at 24.0%, then Ryan Rollins at 24.0%.

Ajay Mitchell leads small forwards at 20.0% Optimal%, +4.3 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. AJ Dybantsa is next at 20.0%, then Jaime Jaquez at 20.0%.

Alperen Sengun leads power forwards at 20.0% Optimal%, -10.6 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Precious Achiuwa is next at 16.0%, then P.J. Washington at 16.0%.

Alperen Sengun leads centers at 20.0% Optimal%, -10.6 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Zuby Ejiofor is next at 16.0%, then Jakob Poeltl at 16.0%.

Tyler Herro leads guards at 32.0% Optimal%, +15.3 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Ryan Rollins is next at 24.0%, then Reed Sheppard at 24.0%.

Ajay Mitchell leads forwards at 20.0% Optimal%, +4.3 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. AJ Dybantsa is next at 20.0%, then Jaime Jaquez at 20.0%.

Tyler Herro leads utility plays at 32.0% Optimal%, +15.3 pp leverage in the 25-slate preview. Reed Sheppard is next at 24.0%, then Ryan Rollins at 24.0%.

DFS sims simulate thousands of full slates off each player's projection, ceiling and floor, then tally how often that player's roster spot lands in the single best lineup, a cleaner read on tournament value than a projection alone.

Optimal % is how often a player reaches that top lineup across every simulated slate; Leverage is Optimal % minus his projected ownership. A high Optimal % paired with low projected ownership marks the play the sims favor relative to how crowded he'll be.

Want the raw projections and ownership the sims are built from? See NBA DFS projections and NBA ownership projections, see today's free optimal NBA lineup, or build your own with the NBA DFS lineup optimizer.

What is a DFS sim?

A DFS sim plays out tonight's slate thousands of times. Each run draws a score for every player from his projection, ceiling and floor, lets teammates and opponents in the same game move together, and then builds the best lineup the salary cap allows. Count how often each player lands in that lineup and you have a win-equity read that one projection can't give you.

Optimal %
The share of simulated slates in which the player lands in the single highest-scoring lineup.
Leverage
Optimal % minus projected ownership, in percentage points. A positive number means the sims like him more than the field will roster him.
Boom %
How often the player reaches the high end of his range, a big night for his salary.
Bust %
How often the player lands in the low end of his range, a night that sinks a lineup.
Std Dev
How widely his simulated scores spread around his average. A larger number means a swingier night.
Ceiling / Floor
The high and low ends of his simulated scores, taken from the same runs.
Preview
The free 25-slate snapshot taken each morning at 9 AM ET, shown to everyone.

How FTA runs Sims

FTA simulates each slate 2,000 times. Every player's score is drawn from his projection, with a spread set by his ceiling and floor.

Players in the same game are correlated. A fast game lifts the starters on both teams, and a blowout trims their minutes, so players in the same game tend to rise and fall together in the same simulated slate.

Each simulated slate is solved for its best lineup, and the results are tallied per player. Sims rerun through the day as projections change, more often in the final hours before tip-off, then freeze at lock. Every number reflects the data as of the run time shown on the page.

Sims vs an optimizer

An optimizer takes one set of projections and returns the highest-projected roster. Sims ask a different question: across many possible versions of the night, who shows up in the best lineup most often? Use Sims to decide which players deserve exposure, then run those plays through the optimizer to build the lineups. Start with the NBA DFS lineup optimizer or see today's free optimal NBA lineup.

How to use Optimal % and Leverage

  1. Pick your contest type. In a tournament (GPP) you want players who win often and are rostered less. In a cash game you want reliable minutes and scoring, so favor a high Optimal % and a low Bust %.
  2. Find the core by position. Read the Optimal % in each position card. The guards and bigs at the top of the list are the players who appear in the best lineup most often.
  3. Check Leverage for the contrarian angle. A positive Leverage means the sims like a player more than the field will roster him. After a late injury report, a role player who inherits minutes can show a large gap before ownership catches up.
  4. Build with the optimizer. Take your favorite plays into the lineup optimizer, set your exposure, and pair players from games with a high total.

Run Sims with your own AI

Annual + AI/MCP members can pull Sims results into Claude or ChatGPT through FTA's MCP connector today. A lineup-sim tool for the connector is coming soon.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a DFS sim?

A DFS sim plays out tonight's NBA slate thousands of times. Each run draws a score for every player from his projection, ceiling and floor, lets players in the same game move together, then builds the best lineup the salary cap allows. Tallying who lands in that lineup gives a win-equity read that one projection can't.

What is Optimal % in NBA DFS?

Optimal % is the share of simulated slates in which a player is in the single highest-scoring lineup. A high number means the sims see him as a frequent piece of the best possible roster, not just a solid average projection.

What is leverage in NBA DFS?

Leverage is Optimal % minus projected ownership, in percentage points. A positive number means the sims like a player more than the field will roster him. A negative number means he is likely to be more popular than his win rate supports.

How many sims does FTA run?

FTA+ members see the live run of 2,000 simulated slates per DraftKings and FanDuel board. The free preview uses 25 simulated slates from a snapshot taken each morning.

How often are NBA Sims updated?

The live run refreshes through the day from 9 AM ET as projections change, more often in the final hours before tip-off, then freezes at lock. Every number on the page is tied to the run time shown above the table.

Is the Sims preview free?

Yes. Everyone can see every player's Optimal %, Leverage, Boom % and Bust % from the 25-slate preview, taken at 9 AM ET. FTA+ members get the live 2,000-slate run, live-precision Leverage, Top Stacks and the sortable full table.

How do NBA Sims handle injuries and minutes?

Sims start from FTA's projections, which move with injury news and minutes. Because the live run refreshes as projections change before tip-off, a role player who inherits minutes can show up in Optimal % and Leverage before ownership catches up.

Can I use NBA Sims with the lineup optimizer?

Yes. Use Sims to choose which players deserve exposure, then build lineups in the NBA DFS optimizer. Sims show who wins most often; the optimizer builds the lineups around those plays. You can also check projected ownership before you lock.

Can I run Sims from Claude or ChatGPT?

Annual + AI/MCP members can pull Sims results into Claude or ChatGPT through FTA's MCP connector today. A lineup-sim tool for the connector is coming soon.
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