NBA Prop Hit Rates & Trends
Track our NBA player prop picks performance across all sportsbooks — see hit rates by prop type, trends over time, and detailed results for every pick.
Daily Hit Rate
Hit Rate by Prop Type
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTS | 3-1 | 75.0% | 4 |
| REB | 2-0 | 100.0% | 2 |
| AST | 0-2 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTS | 4-2 | 66.7% | 6 |
| REB | 3-1 | 75.0% | 4 |
| AST | 1-2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTS | 5-7 | 41.7% | 12 |
| REB | 9-3 | 75.0% | 12 |
| AST | 2-4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTS | 16-13 | 55.2% | 29 |
| REB | 13-4 | 76.5% | 17 |
| AST | 4-4 | 50.0% | 8 |
| STL | 1-0 | 100.0% | 1 |
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTS | 34-22 | 60.7% | 56 |
| REB | 22-13 | 62.9% | 35 |
| AST | 14-7 | 66.7% | 21 |
| 3PM | 1-0 | 100.0% | 1 |
| STL | 1-0 | 100.0% | 1 |
Recent Picks
| Date | Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Pick | Proj | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/10 | PTS | 6.5 | -118 | Over | 8.8 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 7.5 | -129 | Over | 10.2 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 9.5 | -130 | Over | 12.7 | 17.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | REB | 4.5 | -110 | Over | 5.7 | 5.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 5.5 | -130 | Over | 7.3 | 2.0 | L |
See all recent picks and full trend history
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| Date | Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Pick | Proj | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/10 | PTS | 6.5 | -118 | Over | 8.8 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 7.5 | -129 | Over | 10.2 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 9.5 | -130 | Over | 12.7 | 17.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | REB | 4.5 | -110 | Over | 5.7 | 5.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 5.5 | -130 | Over | 7.3 | 2.0 | L |
See all recent picks and full trend history
Upgrade to FTA+ for full access to prop trend data, hit rates, and advanced analytics
| Date | Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Pick | Proj | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/10 | PTS | 6.5 | -118 | Over | 8.8 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 7.5 | -129 | Over | 10.2 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 9.5 | -130 | Over | 12.7 | 17.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | REB | 4.5 | -110 | Over | 5.7 | 5.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 5.5 | -130 | Over | 7.3 | 2.0 | L |
See all recent picks and full trend history
Upgrade to FTA+ for full access to prop trend data, hit rates, and advanced analytics
| Date | Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Pick | Proj | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/10 | PTS | 6.5 | -118 | Over | 8.8 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 7.5 | -129 | Over | 10.2 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 9.5 | -130 | Over | 12.7 | 17.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | REB | 4.5 | -110 | Over | 5.7 | 5.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 5.5 | -130 | Over | 7.3 | 2.0 | L |
See all recent picks and full trend history
Upgrade to FTA+ for full access to prop trend data, hit rates, and advanced analytics
| Date | Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Pick | Proj | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/10 | PTS | 6.5 | -118 | Over | 8.8 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 7.5 | -129 | Over | 10.2 | 8.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 9.5 | -130 | Over | 12.7 | 17.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | REB | 4.5 | -110 | Over | 5.7 | 5.0 | W | |
| 4/10 | PTS | 5.5 | -130 | Over | 7.3 | 2.0 | L |
See all recent picks and full trend history
Upgrade to FTA+ for full access to prop trend data, hit rates, and advanced analytics
DraftKings NBA Prop Hit Rates: Tracking Our Model's Performance
DraftKings is the largest daily fantasy and sportsbook platform in the US, and their NBA player prop markets are among the most liquid available. Our algorithm scans DraftKings prop lines daily, identifying plays where our projection model sees meaningful edge over the posted line. This page tracks every DraftKings prop pick we've made and whether it hit or missed — giving you full transparency into our model's performance against DK's lines specifically.
How DraftKings NBA Props Compare to Other Sportsbooks
DraftKings tends to set competitive lines across all prop types, but our data shows that certain markets — particularly rebounds and assists — can offer softer lines compared to FanDuel or BetMGM. The hit rate breakdown above reveals where our model finds the most consistent edge on DraftKings. If you're building same-game parlays or straight prop bets on DK, use these trends to identify which prop types have historically hit at the highest rates against DraftKings lines.
Using DraftKings Prop Trends to Inform Your Bets
The recent picks table shows every DraftKings prop our model flagged, along with the projected stat, the actual result, and whether the pick hit. Look for prop types where our model sustains a 55%+ hit rate over 14 or 30 days — that indicates a durable edge rather than short-term variance. Combine these trends with our daily DraftKings NBA Best Bets page for the most complete DK betting strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How are NBA prop hit rates calculated?
- We track every player prop pick our algorithm flags across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. After each game, we compare the actual stat line to the prop line to determine if the pick hit (won) or missed (lost). Hit rate is the percentage of picks that hit over a given period.
- What prop types does the model track?
- We track all major NBA player prop markets including Points, Rebounds, Assists, Three-Pointers Made, Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA), and other combination props offered by sportsbooks.
- How often are prop trend results updated?
- Prop results are resolved daily after games complete. The hit rate charts, prop type breakdowns, and recent picks table are all updated every day with the latest resolved results.