BetMGM NBA Prop Hit Rates & Trends
Track our BetMGM NBA player prop picks performance — see hit rates by prop type, trends over time, and detailed results for every pick we've made on BetMGM.
Daily Hit Rate
Hit Rate by Prop Type
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|
| Prop | Record | Hit Rate | Total Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTS | 0-1 | 0.0% | 1 |
| REB | 0-1 | 0.0% | 1 |
| AST | 1-0 | 100.0% | 1 |
| PRA | 2-5 | 28.6% | 7 |
| P+R | 0-1 | 0.0% | 1 |
Recent Picks
| Date | Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Pick | Proj | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/23 | PRA | 16.5 | -115 | Over | 21.9 | 28.0 | W | |
| 3/23 | PRA | 12.5 | -110 | Over | 16.2 | 7.0 | L | |
| 3/22 | PRA | 18.5 | -125 | Under | 10.9 | 29.0 | L | |
| 3/22 | PRA | 19.5 | -105 | Over | 24.5 | 15.0 | L | |
| 3/21 | PTS | 10.5 | +105 | Over | 13.5 | 9.0 | L |
See all recent picks and full trend history
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BetMGM NBA Prop Hit Rates: Our Model vs MGM Lines
BetMGM sets its prop lines independently from DraftKings and FanDuel, which creates unique opportunities for our projection model. Every day we scan BetMGM's NBA player prop offerings and identify picks where our algorithm sees positive expected value. This page gives you a complete, transparent look at how those BetMGM-specific picks perform — broken down by prop type, time period, and individual results.
Where BetMGM NBA Props Offer the Most Edge
BetMGM's pricing model can differ significantly from other major books, especially in secondary stat markets like assists, rebounds, and three-pointers. The prop type breakdown above reveals which categories our model hits at the highest rate against BetMGM's lines specifically. If you see a prop type sustaining above 55% over the last 30 days, that market may represent a consistent pricing inefficiency on BetMGM that our model exploits well.
Building a BetMGM Prop Betting Strategy
Use these trend results alongside our daily BetMGM NBA Best Bets for a complete BetMGM-focused approach. Line shopping across books is one of the most effective ways to improve your long-term results — if our model hits at a higher rate against BetMGM than other books for a particular prop type, that's a strong signal to prioritize BetMGM for those plays.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How are NBA prop hit rates calculated?
- We track every player prop pick our algorithm flags across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. After each game, we compare the actual stat line to the prop line to determine if the pick hit (won) or missed (lost). Hit rate is the percentage of picks that hit over a given period.
- What prop types does the model track?
- We track all major NBA player prop markets including Points, Rebounds, Assists, Three-Pointers Made, Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA), and other combination props offered by sportsbooks.
- How often are prop trend results updated?
- Prop results are resolved daily after games complete. The hit rate charts, prop type breakdowns, and recent picks table are all updated every day with the latest resolved results.