MLB Picks Today
Ready to Take Your DFS Game to the Next Level?
Join FTA+ today and get access to our premium lineup optimizer, ownership projections, advanced NBA player analytics, prop betting projections, and more.
Sign Up Today →Check back when the MLB season is underway.
How We Generate MLB Picks Today
Our MLB best bets are powered by team wOBA splits vs opposing pitcher handedness, starting pitcher quality metrics (xFIP, SIERA, wOBA allowed), umpire strikeout and run tendencies, park factors, and recent team performance over the last 14 days. Each game is scored and ranked by expected edge over the posted line.
Our MLB Prediction Model
The model evaluates every game across multiple dimensions. wOBA splits measure how well a lineup performs against left-handed vs. right-handed pitching — a team with a .340+ wOBA against righties facing a right-handed starter with a 4.00+ xFIP signals a strong offensive advantage. Umpire tendencies adjust run expectations: some umpires consistently call a wider strike zone (suppressing runs), while others squeeze pitchers (boosting offense). Park adjustments account for altitude, dimensions, and weather.
Types of MLB Bets We Cover
We surface moneyline value plays when a team's offensive profile significantly outperforms the opposing starter's historical results against that handedness — these are our highest-confidence picks. Run line picks (-1.5 / +1.5) are flagged when the model projects a margin of 2+ runs. Over/Under picks compare each team's projected run output to the posted total, factoring in bullpen quality and park factor for late-game adjustments.
MLB Best Bets FAQ
All MLB picks today are updated by 11am ET on game days, with adjustments made as lineups are confirmed. Confidence scores reflect the size of the projected edge — a 70%+ confidence pick means the model sees a significant gap between our projection and the posted line. Always verify that lineup confirmation has occurred before placing bets, as a scratched starter can completely change a game's outlook. Upgrade to FTA+ for the full pick list with detailed analysis.