How is FTA's NFL ownership accuracy measured?

For every settled DraftKings and FanDuel slate, FTA compares the ownership percentage it showed on the NFL DFS ownership page at slate lock against the real, measured percentage of tournament lineups that rostered that player. The gap between those two numbers, averaged across every graded player, is the mean absolute error (MAE) shown on this page and shaded on the calendar below, day by day.

What counts as FTA's projection?

The ownership percentage FTA projected for that player at slate lock — never revised afterward. FTA grades the exact number it served whenever that capture is available, and the model's own pre-lock prediction for any older graded slate, so this page shows the full track record rather than only the slates settled since that capture began.

How often does this ownership accuracy page update?

Whenever FTA ingests new settled contest results. There's no fixed daily schedule — a newly graded slate's numbers roll into the calendar and averages shown here as soon as its results are processed.

Can I see tonight's NFL ownership projections instead of past accuracy?

Yes — NFL DFS ownership projections tonight covers live, pre-lock numbers for this week's slate. This page only covers slates that have already been played and settled.

NFL DFS Ownership Accuracy

See how close FTA's NFL DraftKings and FanDuel ownership projections come to real tournament ownership, slate by slate.

See tonight's NFL ownership projections →

5 graded days this season

Headline accuracy (classic slates)

1.1 points avg error

4,325 players graded

This page grades FTA's own NFL ownership projections against what the field actually did once each week's DraftKings and FanDuel slates locked and settled — real measured error, not a claim.

FTA's ownership projections are built for large-field GPP tournaments. Actual ownership can differ significantly from contest to contest (field size, entry fee, contest type), so a projection can be accurate for the big tournaments and still miss in a smaller or different contest.

DraftKings · Classic

1.1 pts avg error · 2,276 players graded
DraftKings · Showdown (FLEX/UTIL)

3.3 pts avg error · 676 players graded
DraftKings · Showdown (Captain/MVP)

2.0 pts avg error · 395 players graded
FanDuel · Classic

1.0 pts avg error · 2,049 players graded
FanDuel · Showdown (FLEX/UTIL)

4.5 pts avg error · 566 players graded
FanDuel · Showdown (Captain/MVP)

3.4 pts avg error · 235 players graded

Weekly accuracy trend (classic slates) NFL's weekly average error, on classic slates.

Day-by-day accuracy calendar (classic slates)

Shade and number show that day's average error across every graded NFL classic slate. Pick a day to see its slates.

November 2026

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Biggest hits & misses: last settled NFL slate

DraftKings showdown slate, November 12, 2026.

Closest calls

Biggest misses

How accurate are FTA's NFL DFS ownership projections?

Over the last 7 days, FTA's NFL DraftKings/FanDuel ownership projections, on classic slates, were within 1.1 points of the field's real ownership on average, across 4,325 graded player projections.

On single-game showdown slates, where ownership concentrates on a handful of players, the error was 3.4 points.

See NFL DFS ownership projections tonight →

See NFL ownership history by past slate →

Methodology: "Projected" is the ownership percentage FTA showed on NFL's DFS ownership page at slate lock, never revised afterward. "Actual" is the measured share of real tournament lineups that rostered a player, from ingested contest results. FTA calls this gap the average error throughout this page — statisticians know it as MAE (mean absolute error).

Frequently Asked Questions

How is FTA's NFL ownership accuracy measured?: For every settled DraftKings and FanDuel slate, FTA compares the ownership percentage it showed on the NFL DFS ownership page at slate lock against the real, measured percentage of tournament lineups that rostered that player. The gap between those two numbers, averaged across every graded player, is the mean absolute error (MAE) shown on this page and shaded on the calendar below, day by day.
Why can actual ownership differ from your projections?: FTA's ownership projections are built for large-field GPP tournaments. Actual ownership can differ significantly from contest to contest (field size, entry fee, contest type), so a projection can be accurate for the big tournaments and still miss in a smaller or different contest.
What counts as FTA's projection?: The ownership percentage FTA projected for that player at slate lock — never revised afterward. FTA grades the exact number it served whenever that capture is available, and the model's own pre-lock prediction for any older graded slate, so this page shows the full track record rather than only the slates settled since that capture began.
How often does this ownership accuracy page update?: Whenever FTA ingests new settled contest results. There's no fixed daily schedule — a newly graded slate's numbers roll into the calendar and averages shown here as soon as its results are processed.
Can I see tonight's NFL ownership projections instead of past accuracy?: Yes — NFL DFS ownership projections tonight covers live, pre-lock numbers for this week's slate. This page only covers slates that have already been played and settled.