NBA Player Prop Hit Rates & Trends

NBA Player Prop Hit Rates: How Our Model Performs

Every day, our algorithm scans player prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars and identifies the plays with the highest expected value. This page tracks the results of those picks — showing you exactly how our model performs by prop type, by sportsbook, and over different time periods. Transparency matters: we publish every pick and every result so you can evaluate our track record before trusting any projection.

Understanding Hit Rate by Prop Type

Not all prop types are created equal. Points props tend to have the tightest lines because they're the most popular market, while rebounds, assists, and three-pointers often have softer lines with more exploitable edges. The prop type breakdown above shows where our model finds the most value — use this data to inform which prop types to focus on when building your entries. A prop type with a 55%+ hit rate over 30 days is a strong signal that our projection model has a genuine edge in that market.

Why Line Shopping Across Sportsbooks Matters for Hit Rates

The sportsbook breakdown reveals which books our model performs best against. Each book sets lines independently, and some are sharper than others in specific markets. If our model consistently hits at a higher rate against one book, it may indicate that book's lines are slower to adjust or less accurate for certain prop types. Use the vendor filter buttons above to drill into book-specific performance and identify where to place your bets.