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A Couple Reminders:
It’s week 16, which means the data is about as strong as it gets. While the matchups shouldn’t be viewed as gospel, they can hopefully provide another useful tool when predicting player performance. Contrary to some peoples beliefs, matchups do matter, just not as much as we’d like to think.
As always, THIS IS NOT A RANKINGS ARTICLE. For rankings, look at our projections. This data helps quantify the matchups and provides some context for the projections. The table and consequent analysis is reserved for subscribers only, as a lot of time, work, and effort goes into this analysis each week.
What to Look For
Devin Funchess returns to face an incredible matchup. A number of other DFS targets pop in this weeks model as well.
Adam Thielen has been awful recently, but his team is still in the playoff hunt and he has a beautiful matchup against DET in the slot where he’ll avoid Darius Slay and face off against the struggling Nevin Lawson. His .51 WOPR since week 12 is very underwhelming, but I’m hoping that was at least partially attributable to issue with the offensive coordinator. This is an intriguing tournament spot for Thielen who likely won’t garner much ownership. I think the Minnesota passing game could get back on here, and the Lions have been more of a pass funnel since acquiring Damon Harrison. Juju Smith-Schuster will likely avoid shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, which means he’ll get a ton of the beatable Eli Apple Sunday. He’s also been much better on the road compared to Antonio Brown. He’s my favorite piece of the Pittsburgh passing game to latch onto.
Doug Baldwin might be popular on Yahoo facing off against the Chiefs in a potential shootout, but he draws a difficult on paper matchup against Kendall Fuller, who ranks 31st in playerprofiler.com’s coverage rating. His 65% slot rate means he will run 35% of his routes against the weaker outside CBs of the Chiefs, though, who’ve allowed 34.1 PPG on the road (2nd most in the NFL).
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