Weekly NFL Matchups | Week 16 WR1

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All Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | TE | DEF

A Couple Reminders:

It’s week 16, which means the data is about as strong as it gets. While the matchups shouldn’t be viewed as gospel, they can hopefully provide another useful tool when predicting player performance. Contrary to some peoples beliefs, matchups do matter, just not as much as we’d like to think.

As always, THIS IS NOT A RANKINGS ARTICLE. For rankings, look at our projections. This data helps quantify the matchups and provides some context for the projections. The table and consequent analysis is reserved for subscribers only, as a lot of time, work, and effort goes into this analysis each week.

What to Look For

This is a very interesting week for top priced WRs as nearly each one is in a non-ideal matchup. 

NE 43.73% 43.21% Zay Jones
GB 47.17% 33.63% Robby Anderson
HOU 41.00% 33.41% Alshon Jeffery
SEA 26.31% 31.52% Tyreek Hill
TEN 31.73% 31.04% Josh Doctson
PHI 29.67% 30.30% Deandre Hopkins
DEN 26.83% 27.87% Jordy Nelson
CIN 35.85% 27.06% Antonio Callaway
NYG 15.16% 20.35% T.Y. Hilton
KC 7.72% 18.47% Tyler Lockett
TB 22.71% 17.91% Amari Cooper
NO 13.42% 13.92% Antonio Brown
CLE 7.02% 12.88% John Ross
NYJ 15.73% 11.59% Davante Adams
WSH 13.23% 10.59% Corey Davis
LAR 8.92% 7.65% Trent Sherfield
CAR 2.41% 3.95% Julio Jones
MIA 6.07% 1.22% Donte Moncrief
CHI -6.63% 0.37% Dante Pettis
ARI -4.10% -1.56% Brandin Cooks
BUF -5.98% -4.46% Chris Hogan
SF 4.46% -5.01% Allen Robinson
ATL -4.98% -6.79% D.J. Moore
DET -0.47% -7.24% Stefon Diggs
DAL -17.33% -7.97% Mike Evans
PIT -15.74% -10.99% Michael Thomas
IND -16.99% -13.72% Russell Shepard
BAL -16.38% -16.80% Mike Williams
OAK -19.00% -19.83% Courtland Sutton
LAC -24.23% -20.41% Michael Crabtree
MIN -27.98% -25.27% Kenny Golladay
JAX -30.61% -31.01% Kenny Stills


The Patriots have been victimized by #1 WRs off and on this season, but do tend to slow them down when that receiver is their primary weapon on offense. The Bills are a unique case, because their offense really revolves around the running game (Josh Allen’s legs). Zay Jones is still probably a fade for me based on his underwhelming prospect profile. He is my preferred WR stack with Josh Allen if I do want to go there, though. Robby Anderson is one of my favorite plays of the DFS slate, on DraftKings especialy, as he’s massively underpriced and is #5 in the NFL in air yards since week 12. His .62 WOPR during that time frame ranks 14th in the NFL and is higher than Amari Cooper’s. Lock for me on DraftKings. While Kenny Golladay is intriguing based on volume and air yards, this feels like a letdown spot against a Minnesota defense that has consistently shut down #1 WRs and will be playing for nothing on Sunday except a better draft pick. 

Michael Thomas also doesn’t rate highly on here because of Joe Haden’s success as as #1 corner this season, but he’s an excellent buy low as the Saints finally get back to the Superdome on Sunday. Three straight road games has made people think the Saints passing game stinks again. Thomas also moves into the slot plenty where he’ll face off against 5’9″ Mike Hilton. Now is the time to buy back into the Saints passing game in a possible shootout at home against the Steelers. Dante Pettis is also very cheap on DraftKings, and the 49ers will likely be trailing much of the game Sunday. While the Bears are obviously a difficult matchup on paper, their corners aren’t elite and the Pettis/Mullens connection is growing. He’s the #1 WR on this team, and has more air yards than Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen and Julian Edelman since week 12. 


Find me in FTA+ Chat or on Twitter (@Thoreosnmilk) with any matchup related questions!

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