Weekly NFL Matchups | Week 16 RB

Christian McCaffrey juking a Houston Texans defender

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All Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | TE | DEF

A Couple Reminders:


It’s week 16, which means the data is about as strong as it gets. While the matchups shouldn’t be viewed as gospel, they can hopefully provide another useful tool when predicting player performance. Contrary to some peoples beliefs, matchups do matter, just not as much as we’d like to think.

As always, THIS IS NOT A RANKINGS ARTICLE. For rankings, look at our projections. This data helps quantify the matchups and provides some context for the projections. The table and consequent analysis is reserved for subscribers only, as a lot of time, work, and effort goes into this analysis each week.

What to Look For

Some riskier names up top, which might lend itself to my theory that a GPP winning lineup this week could consist of lowest cost RBs paired with high cost WRs. 

ATL 51.05% 49.68% Christian McCaffrey
CIN 54.24% 49.32% Nick Chubb
NYG 45.45% 41.54% Marlon Mack
MIA 48.10% 37.45% Leonard Fournette
ARI 43.00% 33.72% Todd Gurley
NYJ 40.81% 31.00% Jamaal Williams
KC 28.65% 29.58% Chris Carson
TB 27.37% 26.84% Ezekiel Elliott
IND 12.18% 25.06% Saquon Barkley
HOU 27.36% 21.50% Josh Adams
SEA 11.90% 16.55% Damien Williams
PHI 4.77% 13.45% Alfred Blue
GB 16.25% 13.03% Elijah McGuire
BUF 4.14% 9.84% Sony Michel
OAK 16.10% 9.81% Phillip Lindsay
CLE 9.14% 6.45% Joe Mixon
CAR 8.19% 6.34% Tevin Coleman
NO 0.54% 5.20% Jaylen Samuels
SF 0.88% 5.07% Jordan Howard
NE 2.86% 3.59% LeSean McCoy
DET 0.67% 1.30% Dalvin Cook
PIT 6.37% 0.81% Alvin Kamara
DAL -2.40% 0.28% Peyton Barber
LAC -1.58% -0.46% Gus Edwards
TEN -3.87% -1.18% Adrian Peterson
BAL -5.80% -4.40% Melvin Gordon
WSH -9.58% -4.95% Derrick Henry
CHI -10.09% -10.02% Matt Breida
DEN -11.14% -10.85% Doug Martin
LAR -9.47% -10.86% David Johnson
MIN -19.82% -16.27% LeGarrette Blount
JAX -19.24% -16.75% Kenyan Drake

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey draws a perfect matchup this week against the hapless Falcons who are still allowing the most receptions per game to RBs in the entire league. The only concern is that the Panthers are playing for nothing. Also, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb and Marlon Mack are all in excellent spots. It appears the majority of cash game lineups will focus on McCaffrey and Elliot, but I think this is a fantastic week to differentiate yourself in GPP by pivoting off those guys to similar upside plays in Marlon Mack, Jamaal Williams, and Damien Williams (Yahoo) who also find themselves in soft matchups. In cash, I don’t know if I can get away from Zeke and McCaffrey on DraftKings. 

Derrick Henry rating low on here is more of a product of the stout early season run defense of the Redskins, but they’ve now allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL the last four weeks. Dalvin Cook has a neutral matchup and may go under-owned based on better plays above and below him, but he’s officially back and is capturing a workhorse-like role in the Minnesota offense now with a heavy dose of passing game work. He’s a great GPP pivot.

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