We have a very interesting card here for UFC Fight Night Gustafsson vs Smith. We have four Light Heavyweight bouts with five fighters that are ranked inside the top 15 in the UFC and others that appear to be at a crossroads in their career. We also have six fighters making their UFC debut. I will highlight three fights in this article and provide some notes for a few other fights. Keep in mind this card starts at 10 AM ET so don’t get stuck with your placeholder lineup.
Main Event: Gustafsson (9300) vs Smith (6900)
Alexander Gustafsson checks in as the biggest favorite on the card (-335) and also has one of the better ITD prop (+123). Both of these fighters are coming off title bout losses to Jon Jones but have impressive resumes outside of that. Gustafsson has everything going for him in this fight, he is the more prolific striker and averages more takedowns per 15 than Smith. He also gets to fight in his home country of Sweden. I like Gustafsson to win this fight and put up a large score, but I don’t know if you will need him to take down a GPP. We are going to have to find some cheap guys we think can get the win and I’m not sure that my roster construction will allow for this Alexander.
Alexander Rakic (8900) vs Jimi Manuwa (7300)
Rakic is my favorite fighter (and Alexander) on DK this week. He has the best ITD prop at -104 and is a healthy favorite at -220. Manuwa has lost three straight fights and has been knocked out twice in that span. This fight looks to be set up to showcase Rakic against the aging Manuwa. Jimi does have power and could pull off the upset, but Rakic has shown he has a strong chin. If Rakic finishes this fight in the first or second round he could easily put up 100 points. I plan to start my lineups with Rakic and take the discount over Gustafsson.
Nick Hein (8200) vs Frank Camacho (8000)
Vegas currently has this fight as a pick ‘em with both fighters having -110 odds. Both of these fighters are coming off two straight losses. I am going to side with Camacho for this fight. I like that he is slightly cheap than Hein, but I am really interested in his level of activity. Camacho averages 6.23 SSPM. Even in a loss to Dober he was able to put up 82 DK points so if he is able to get the win he can easily breach that 100 point threshold. Camacho is moving down a class after fighting most of his career at welterweight, however his last UFC win did come at lightweight. He will be the much larger fighter. In Nick Hein’s last fight vs Hadzovic he was picked apart by the jab. Camacho should be able to rack up big points if he utilizes his boxing.
Wildcards and Unknowns
As I mentioned in the opening there are six newcomers to the UFC on this card. I am going to rely heavily on Vegas for these fights.
Sung Bin Jo (8800) Jo is 9-0 with 9 finishes. He is a decent favorite (-145) with a strong ITD prop (+116) Jo may be unknown to the UFC, but his opponent is not. Teymer is 0-3 and has been finished in all three fights. This sets up as a strong debut match for Jo.
Danilo Belluardo (7700) Belluardo has won 6 straight fights and has finishes in all but his last fight. His opponent was thoroughly dominated in his UFC debut in February. Maybe it was big light jitters, but he looked bad. After opening with Belluardo as a slight underdog this fight is now close to a pick ‘em.
Eduarda Santana (8600) vs Bea Malecki (7600) Neither of these women have fought since 2017 so there are a lot of unknowns here. This fight opened with Santana as the favorite at -160 but that has now swung in the favor Malecki at -120. Malecki provides good value for DK as she is now a favorite priced like an underdog. She also has decent odds to finish ITD at +233.
Sergey Khandozhko (8800) vs Rostem Akman (7400) This fight was a late add to the card. Sergey is 26 years old but already has 32 professional fights, 26-5-1 with 17 finishes. Rostem is 27 with a record of 6-0. Khandozhko is the favorite at -170 and and ITD prop of +153. I think I would rather play Jo at the same amount. I will be watching the Vegas lines on this one as we close in the fight to see if there is any significant movement.
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