Overview: I base my projections and rankings on Vegas odds and prior fight stats. Fighters can score big points by either finishing the fights in the first round or for having a very active fight that goes the distance. I’ll touch on a few of my favorite plays at each price tier and I’ll have more thoughts in chat leading up to the fights. I will also watch the Vegas lines to see if there are any changes that we may be able to take advantage of.
We have a pretty stacked card for this UFC event and the plays I like the most are all in the high-priced tiers. We have four fighters that have an ITD (inside the distance) prop of -115 or better and three of them are in the top pricing tier. Our goal should be to find six winners for our lineups but I think this week will prove to be pretty difficult. The value range doesn’t look to have many fighters with a ton of upside.
There are three fighters that stand out to me in this high-priced range and I would love to get all three in my lineup, but I don’t think the value will be there. I think you can start your lineup with any of these three fighters and if you like enough of the lower priced options you might be able to get two or three.
Vincente Luque (9400) Luque is my favorite in this group. He has the best odds to win at -700 and the best ITD prop at -245. He is also the more active of these fighters landing 5.13 SSPM (significant strikes per minute) and 1.19 TD (takedowns) per 15. His opponent Derrick Krantz is a veteran of the regional scene but doesn’t appear to be anything special. Luque is riding a four fight win streak in which he has finished every one of his opponents. Krantz took this fight on short notice after Magny failed his drug test.
Charles Oliveria(9300) Oliveria is also a large favorite at -355 and has the second best ITD prop at -185. This will be the third time Oliveria has fought Nick Lentz. He bested Lentz on both occasions by submission, however the first fight was changed to NC due to an illegal knee. Oliveria also has a four fight win streak where he has finished all his opponents by submission in either the first or second round.
Davi Ramos (9200) Ramos will be taking on UFC newcomer Auston Hubbard. Like the two fights above, Vegas is heavy on the side of Ramos as he is a -470 favorite and his ITD prop is -170. Ramos has submitted his last two opponents by rear naked choke in the first round and the indication from Vegas is they expect something similar for this fight.
There are a number of good plays in this range, although only one has a good prop to finish ITD. I think in this range you are looking for active fighters that may have an opportunity to finish, but I think you will score most of the points on activity and getting the decision win.
Trevin Giles (8400) Giles won his first two UFC fights by KO to bring his record to 11-0. This fight could go the distance, but Giles is one of the most active fighters on the card. He has the second highest SSPM at 5.45 and lands 3.69 TD per 15. So even if he can’t get the early stoppage he should rack up plenty of points and the win.
Rafael Dos Anjos and Kevin Lee (8200/8000) Both of these fighters are coming off 5 round decision losses. Vegas basically has this fight as a pick ‘em with Dos Anjos at -115 and Lee at -105. I am going to side with Lee in this fight because he is slightly less expensive and a slightly more active fighter. However if you are on the side of Dos Anjos I won’t fault you. I think this is a key fight to target because we could very well get 5 rounds of action and those points will add up. The winner of this fight should score 100 points and the loser could get 70.
I think there are a few interesting fighters in this range. I’m looking to find some fighters that have a good shot at the win and are active enough to score some points in the event of the loss.
Felicia Spencer (7700) Spencer (6-0) just won the Invicta Featherweight Championship in November and now will have her first fight in the UFC. Megan Anderson is 6-3 and 1-1 in the UFC. Her win came due to an eye injury to her opponent so we don’t really know how good she will be. Vegas has this as +140 to go to decision and neither fighter has overwhelming odds to finish ITD. I think Spencer provides a really great value if she is able to get the win.
Sijara Eubanks (7100) Eubanks grades out well from a value perspective but she is a rather large underdog at (+255). She is the most active fighter in the value range with 4.4 SSPM and 2.5 TD per 15. This is a rematch with Aspen Ladd from Invicta where Ladd was victorious in a 3 round decision. If Eubanks is able to pull out the win here she would crush value and if not, I don’t think her score will kill you if the fight goes 3 rounds.
Michel Pereira (7300) I don’t think I will be rostering Pereira but this guy is something different. Check out my twitter page for some highlights of his last fight Of his 21 wins 14 have come by KO or submission so there is a chance to get a big score if he can pull off the upset. This is a truly boom or bust option.