Tuesday, 11/6 NBA Draftkings GPP Plays


The format of my NBA articles will be similar to my PGA articles: I will go tier-by-tier (price-wise), breaking down the plays that stand out to me, and which chalk merits fading (on bigger slates, don’t expect anyone to command fade-worthy ownership unless there is big injury news). I’ll summarize by position at the end.

Games/Teams to Target

Find NBA team stats here.
Find player rates here.

Charlotte, Dallas, and Portland all will see big pace boosts, while Dallas and Brooklyn face the worst defenses. My favorite teams to target are:

  1. Dallas
  2. Charlotte
  3. Brooklyn
  4. Washington

Despite the huge pace boost, Milwaukee’s top rated defense will make things tough on Portland as a whole.

 

Picks!

9k+

Giannis Antetokounmpo (FADE)

Giannis has been priced way up (3k more than anyone else), in large part because of the small slate and lack of other PF options. Consider the fact that Westbrook was $1500 cheaper last night in an excellent matchup. Giannis, on the other hand, is in a pace-down game against a team with an excellent defensive rating,¬†and he’s on the road.

While I’m calling him a fade, I would understand the play from strictly an opportunity cost point of view. PF is close to a wasteland, but I’ve got one in mind.

Kemba Walker

Kemba opened the season at $7600 and is now a whopping $9300. The dramatic price rise is a result of his 28 points per game, but his usage is down to just 28.3% over the last seven games. That being said, there’s no denying the matchup, as Charlotte gets the biggest pace boost, a mediocre opponent defense, and Atlanta is turnover prone. The specific matchup is ideal for Kemba, as Trae Young has been exposed early on as a defender teams should take advantage of, and the combo of Yound and Len should be especially enticing for Kemba’s high pick and roll involvement. There’s little I can do to argue against eating his massive ownership.

 

6k-8.9k

DeAndre Ayton

At 7’1″ 250 lbs, Ayton is plenty big enough to take advantage of the smaller, lighter Jarrett Allen. The Nets are playing slower this season, and better defensively, but they are still vulnerable against talented, large, big men (a-la Andre Drummond). The Nets are 28th in defensive rebound rate, which fits perfectly for Ayton’s 67.7% offensive rebound rate (wow). The rookie big man is also flashing excellence on D with an equally impressive 58.3% block rate.

Caris LeVert

LeVert has played the most minutes of any Brooklyn player and has been their best player. His 36.4% steals rate is elite and gives him immense upside against Phoenix (dead last in TO% at nearly 20%). Phoenix is 2nd last in defensive rating, as well, which bodes well for LeVert’s aggressive style; LeVert is 9th in the league in drives per game.

Jusuf Nurkic

This is a really difficult matchup to gauge for Nurkic. On the one hand, the Bucks have no one to contain him 1-on-1, be it Lopez, Ilyasova, or Henson in at the 5. On the other, Lopez boxes out well and is a big reason why Milwaukee is 3rd in the NBA in defensive rebound rate. Nurkic will have to get things going offensively to crush value, which he’s certainly capable of doing when at home. He’s extra risk/reward-y because if he gets things going, he’ll likely see extra minutes as the best angle of attack for Portland against the strong Bucks defense, but if he doesn’t, he could be relegated to the bench early and often.

Dwight Howard

The much safer and higher upside Center play alongside Ayton is Dwight Howard. Dwight is a shoe-in for 30+ minutes (outside of a blowout or severe foul trouble) and his ability to contribute with points, rebounds, steals, and blocks gives him the floor and ceiling of a $7k/$8k player, not $6.1k.

 

3k-5.9k

Kent Bazemore

Bazemore is one of the most infuriating players to watch. One night he’ll dominate both ends of the floor, then the next he’ll look lost or disinterested offensively. His consistent effort and activity defensively is wonderful for an NBA player, but a small consolation for a DFS play. With Taurean Prince out, I’m willing to risk him in hopes we get the confident, aggressive Baze. His minutes have been fluctuating lately, but Prince’s absence should erase that concern.

Dennis Smith Jr

In one of the weirder situations in the early part of the season, DSJ continues to pace Dallas in usage rate, despite his perceived absence if you just look at game logs. His turnover rates are high and he’s shooting the ball poorly, but both of those issues could be remedied tonight by the comically bad (I’m a Sixers fan) Wizards’ defense.

Warning: Dwight’s presence has had an effect on both opponent measures we are interested in. Their defensive rating has improved from 114.6 to 112.8 and their pace has dropped from 105.3 to 102.25. A two game sample is not even close to enough, especially when one of the two was a blowout, but the trend fits what I believe we should expect going forward.

Spencer Dinwiddie

Dinwiddie has pulled into a dead heat with Russell when it comes to playing time. He’s not as talented, but he’s the better basketball player in pretty much every sense of the term. $4800 is too cheap for a player 3rd in usage on a team we want to target.

Malik Monk

Take the last sentence I wrote for Dinwiddie and copy it into here. Monk and Lamb are battling for SG minutes and are both playing ultra-aggressive basketball in hopes of winning the job. Since Monk doesn’t share the floor with Kemba, I feel more secure with his usage.

Dewayne Dedmon

Alex Len is going to have difficulty staying on the floor tonight, given the amount of pick and roll Charlotte runs. Kemba and Tony Parker are both top 5 in the league in pick and roll frequency. As a result, I expect Dedmon to be called upon a little earlier than usual and play a few extra minutes. Dedmon’s ability to rack up fantasy points in limited time makes each minute valuable. He is the PF savior.

DeAndre’ Bembry

Bembry should get a nice boost in playing time in place of Taurean Prince. Bembry’s sky high defensive rates and solid rebound rate make him more than viable as a pairing with Bazemore.

Tony Parker

In the past seven games, Parker’s usage rate is actually¬†higher than Kemba’s. Obviously, his role as leader of the second unit is the cause of this, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless. Similarly, he runs pick and roll even more frequently than Kemba. All of this is to say that his production should continue, especially as he gains minutes alongside Kemba instead of just as his reserve.

Allen Crabbe

Let me start by saying I don’t necessarily recommend either of these final two players, but they’re my favorite upside-punts to fit something you love. the minutes have been there for Crabbe, he just hasn’t done much. If he gets hot in the first quarter, he could explode for 30+ fantasy points.

Alex Poythress

Poythress is listed as a SF and has been playing around 10 minutes per game lately. In Prince’s absence, maybe that bumps to around 20, and he’s already shown that he has upside at 20 minutes for his price.

By position:

PG

  • Kemba Walker
  • Dennis Smith Jr
  • Spencer Dinwiddie
  • Tony Parker

SG

  • Kent Bazemore
  • Spencer Dinwiddie
  • Malik Monk
  • Allen Crabbe

SF

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (FADE)
  • Caris LeVert
  • Kent Bazemore
  • DeAndre’ Bembry
  • Allen Crabbe
  • Alex Poythress

PF

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (FADE)
  • Dewayne Dedmon

C

  • DeAndre Ayton
  • Jusuf Nurkic
  • Dwight Howard

 

Fantasy Basketball

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