Round the Bases (MLB DraftKings Picks) | 07/03/19


A weird turn of events last night that is for sure. I ended up not cashing due to the White Sox PPD, but had plenty of chances to get there just couldn’t get no big hits. Last night is in the past though and now we move onto tonight’s 14 game slate which once again includes Coors and some top shelf pitching. I won’t have an article tomorrow due to the holiday, so from FTA and myself have a happy and safe 4th of July. It is very important to check into our FTA Discord Chat each night as some of my plays here might change as lineups start coming out. Check out our A.C.E. Projection System as well to help with building your winning lineups. You can also follow and DM me on twitter @DRockDFS.

Pitchers

Chris Sale, BOS ($11,800) @ TOR

Sale and the Red Sox come into tonight with the second lowest IRTA on the slate of 3.3 runs against the Toronto Blue Jays. Sale got tossed around in his last start but he still has a 2.93 SIERA which is the best on today’s slate. I’m finding enough value early to get Coors and Sale with ease tonight. Against RHB this year he has a 2.98 xFIP and an insane 36.7% K Rate and will most likely see seven RHB tonight in the Toronto lineup. The Jays rank in the bottom 10 of the league against LHP in ISO, wOBA, and WRC+.

Walker Buehler, LAD ($10,900) vs ARI

Buehler and the Dodgers will face the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight and this isn’t as good a matchup as what Sale has but I have no problem going here if you need the extra $900 for bats. Buehler has the lowest IRTA on the slate of 3.1 runs and with the game being in LA it is a decent park downgrade for the Diamondbacks. Buehler comes into tonight with a 3.36 xFIP, 27.2% K rate and a 12% SwStr rate. The strike out potential is there and he also has a SIERA of 3.52 with an impressive 41.3% ground ball rate. I will be going for Sale tonight but won’t argue taking Buehler over him. Both are quality SP1’s on tonight’s slate.

Infielders

Trevor Story, COL (SS, $4500) vs HOU

I lied yesterday and said that was probably the only time you get Story under $5K at home. DK still has him priced there and tonight its against LHP Wade Miley. This has lock button written all over it for me tonight. A 6.6 IRT and even though Story has been better against RHP this year lets not forget that in 2018 he had a .442 wOBA and a .355 ISO against lefties. This is by far to cheap of a tag. Don’t overthink it.

Tommy Edman, STL (2B/3B, $3200) @ SEA

Another great value play tonight is the Cardinals young prospect Tommy Edman. Multi-position eligible and the kid is flat out raking in the majors. He should bat lead off for the Cards tonight as they face RHP Mike Leake and the Mariners. Over Edman’s last 30 he has a .326 wOBA, .257 ISO and an elite 53.6 HH Rate. Leake comes into this matchup with a 4.3 xFIP and giving up a .328 wOBA to LHB dating back to last season. Over his last 30 he is also giving up a 44% HH rate. Edman will be a core play for me tonight. The only question is which Coors bat you leave out for him in Altuve and Arenado.

Others: M. Olsen, C. Santana, N. Arenado, J. Altuve, R. Devers, E. Encarnacion, B. Harper, W. Calhoun, N. Mazara, D. Fletcher

Outfielders

Mookie Betts, BOS (OF, $4400) @ TOR

What is DK thinking? I think they are trying to keep cash lineups from having 3+ Coors bats tonight because the price tags on both Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are way to cheap and actually laughable. Boston has the third highest IRT tonight of 6.2 which is only behind Colorado and Houston. On top of that they are facing RHP Jacob Waguespack who can count his major league innings on one hand. In 11 AAA starts this year he has a 4.9 xFIP, 1.5 HR/9 and a K rate of 22%. Over Mookies L30 he has a .359 wOBA, .210 ISO and a 44% HH rate and also gives you the stolen base upside. Mookie is my #DFSHomeRunCall tonight.

Khris Davis, OAK (OF, $3600) vs MIN

The A’s are home against RHP Kyle Gibson and the Minnesota Twins tonight. Gibson has a 3.4 xFIP and 38.5% HH rate dating back to last year, both respectable. This play is more for value for me again as I believe like Mookie, this price tag on Krush is just to cheap. Lets not forget that this is one of the better home run hitters in baseball and over his career has a .353 wOBA with a .266 ISO against RHP. Gibson is ground ball pitcher but Davis has a 43% fly ball rate this year. When I know a pitcher has a heavy split of GB rate compared to FB rate, I like attacking them with a FB hitter and this is a prefect spot for that.

Others: Jose Martinez, J. Upton, M. Trout, G. Springer, M. Brantley, J.D. Martinez, K. Schwarber, A. Judge, A. Hicks

If you also play on Fan Duel make sure to check out one of the greatest minds FTA has @Jac3600‘s daily FanDuel MLB article.

Join us in chat for more advice and picks for tonight’s slate, along with using our A.C.E. Projection System for help with building your winning lines for tonight. I should be in chat most of the day to answer your questions along with other analyst’s and you can always get a hold of me on Twitter as well. Good Luck tonight and Play Ball.

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