Last night went well as I got in the green for the second straight night. That is nothing though as we got a sub right now that is on a 17 day cash streak I believe it is now. Great reason to get over and join us. Tonight we get a monster 15 game slate with a rare quiet night on the weather side of things as of right now. Still got some parks with winds blowing out but 15 games should help keep the monster chalk away. It is very important to check into our FTA Discord Chat each night as some of my plays here might change as lineups start coming out. Check out our A.C.E. Projection System as well to help with building your winning lineups. You can also follow and DM me on twitter @DRockDFS.
RHP Gerrit Cole, HOU ($11,500)
Gerrit Cole comes into tonight with a solid matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Houston. PIT is no Miami but they still only have a .161 ISO and an average 20% K Rate against RHP. The kicker here is that Cole gives you a $900 discount off of Max Scherzer and it don’t matter what kind of lineup the Pirates throw at him. Cole has an MLB best 2.72 SIERA coming into tonight. Against RHB he has a 36% K Rate and a massive 40% K Rate against LHB. Me personally, Cole might be my number one tonight as that extra $900 could go a long way. I won’t argue if you want to go all the way up to Max but remember Miami has his number.
There is only two negatives today on RHP Max Scherzer (WAS, $12,400) and that is DraftKings priced him sky high on a 15 game slate and the Marlins have fared very well against him this year. Miami is last in the league in ISO (.118), second to last in wOBA (.284) and has a 25% K Rate all against RHP this season. Max gets a big park upgrade being in Miami and will see a slew of RHB tonight. This season he has an elite 39% K Rate with a 2.1 xFIP against RHB. Add a 16% SwStr rate to that and oh my. The Nationals have the lowest IRTA on the slate as of right now at 2.8 runs. I won’t argue if you want to pay up for him as this is about as good as it gets, but be prepared to go value hunting on this massive slate.
LHP Andrew Heaney (LAA, $8800) has been one of my favorite targets lately. He faces a Reds team in LA tonight which is a park downgrade for the Reds. Cincinnati only has a .145 ISO, bottom six in the league against LHP, and a 21% K Rate. Heaney is no stud and might be more gpp tonight than a SP2 in cash as he does have an xFIP just north of 6.0 and gives up hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Angels park will help with those fly balls a little but what really puts me on him is his 26% K Rate against RHB, which the reds will be loaded with tonight, and his elite 15% SwStr rate which is fourth best on the slate behind Snell, Cole, and Max. Pretty good company I’d say.
Others: M. Bumgarner, D. Price, A. Alzolay
Jose Altuve, HOU (2B, $3900)
We are going to have to value search today due to the aces that are on the slate. Altuve is a decent starting point for that value as he is under $4K going against RHP Trevor Williams and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Williams has been decent this year and well, Altuve has struggled. Williams has a 4.4 SIERA coming into tonight and over 75% of his pitches have been hit for either medium or hard contact. Altuve came to life on Sunday hitting a home run and adding a double. He still has a 41% HH Rate which is encouraging. You also get the stolen base upside and over his career he has stole 4 times more bases against RHP compared to lefties to go with his .341 career wOBA against RHP. I’m willing to take a chance here in cash on a night where we will need multiple guys in the $3K range.
Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR (3B, $3200)
This is another pure value play with high upside. Vlad gets a slight park upgrade coming to Yankee stadium and should be hitting second tonight for only $3.2K. The kid has shown he has the ability to go off and he comes into tonight with a 40% HH Rate and a .318 wOBA. Chad Green is serving as the Yankees opener and as of right now I can’t find who is coming in for long relief. Green has given up a 45% HH Rate to RHB this year though for what it is worth. Honestly Vlad will be a core play for me today no matter who the Yankees throw out just due to the super cheap price tag and hitting in the top of the order. Don’t want to overthink this one.
Others: B. Belt, J. Kipnis, J. Turner, E. Suarez, F. Lindor, L. Voit, J. Baez
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (OF, $4600)
It’s Stanton vs a lefty day, my top hitter on tonight’s slate and my #DFSHomeRunCall. Stanton and the Yankees are home to face the Blue Jays and the Vegas line isn’t out yet but I suspect it to be north of 6 again. LHP Clayton Richards will take the mound for the Jays tonight and this season he has given up a .421 wOBA, sub 6 xFIP, 1.9 HR/9 and a 45% HH Rate to RHB. If your not familiar with advanced stats, lets just say that is extremely bad. On the other end of the matchup Stanton went yard yesterday and for the second straight day is apart of Round the Bases. Stanton has a 47% HH Rate this year, small sample, but career he has an “elite” .422 wOBA, “elite” .335 ISO, and an “elite” 170 WRC+. Lock of the day for me, as you won’t get him at Yankee stadium against a lefty in the summer for very much longer under $5K.
Franmil Reyes, SDP (OF, $4200)
The Padres are in Baltimore tonight for a date with LHP Josh Rogers once Yacabonis is done opening the act. The Padres still don’t have an IRT but once it comes in I will assume it is going to be one of the highest on the slate. Josh Rogers is just plain out awful. In the minors this season over 11 starts he has given up almost 3 HR/9 and also has an xFIP of 5.63. Dating back to last year in the majors he has a sub 8 xFIP and a 46% HH Rate to RHB. Franmil is about as cheap as they come to get your SD exposure tonight as DK priced them up crazy high tonight. Reyes has a .307 wOBA with and a .231 ISO against LHP this year and eventually the O’s bullpen will have to pitch and they are also just plain awful. Against RHP Reyes has a .345 wOBA with a .299 ISO and a 50% HH Rate. Hopefully Reyes is hitting in the top 4 tonight, but if not I will still have him in my cash as 5-7 AB’s is the craziest prediction tonight.
Others: A. Judge, J. Kipnis, J. Turner, E. Suarez, F. Lindor, L. Voit, J. Baez
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Join us in chat for more advice and picks for tonight’s slate, along with using our A.C.E. Projection System for help with building your winning lines for tonight. I should be in chat most of the day to answer your questions along with other analyst’s and you can always get a hold of me on Twitter as well. Good Luck tonight and Play Ball.