Round the Bases (DraftKings MLB Picks) | 4/05/2019


Tuesday night was a really good night for me and FTA, as the Astros helped me cash everything. Featured pitcher Blake Snell came up big throwing 13 K’s, 1 BB and giving up 2 hits and no runs on his way to the win and 43.95 DK Pts. Alex Bregman also had a solid game getting a 2 hits, 1 for a double, BB, HBP, R, and a SB for 19 DK Pts. The last 2 days have been messy slates, but FTA still had a lot of green screens on the short slates with some big winners. Make sure you join us in chat as we fully break down the slate and the other MLB analyst as well as myself list our core plays for both cash games and tournaments. Check out our new A.C.E. Projection System as well to help with building your winning lineups. You can also follow me on twitter @DRockDFS.

04/02/19 Recap

  • Blake Snell, TB ($9500) = 43.95 FPts.
  • Alex Bregman, HOU (3B/SS, $5000) = 19 FPts.
  • Justin Smoak, TOR (1B, $4200) = 6 FPts.
  • Domingo Santana, SEA (OF, $4000) = 0 FPts.

We have 8 games on tap for tonight’s main slate on DraftKings, a couple with some rain potential but nothing alarming and then MIN/PHI game looking like a PPD. We avoid the Dodgers offense in Coors today as they are on the early slate but we will get that chalk come tomorrow night. Pitching will be interesting tonight so make sure to join chat today to get all the takes for tonight and our brand new Value Calculation on our A.C.E Projection System for starting pitchers.

Pitcher

Shane Bieber, CLE ($9300)

Let’s face it, we have all had enough of the TOR chalk. As a team they are batting .190 on the season and have gone no hit through the first 5 innings in 4 out of 6 games to start the year. Bieber had a 24.3% K Rate in 2018 as a rookie and a 46.6% GB Rate. He comes into the slate with a 3.4 IRTA, lowest on the slate, and a -150 favorite. Bieber is a solid SP1 tonight.

Infielders

Adam Frazier, PIT (2B, $3800)

Dating back to last season, Frazier has a .369 wOBA, above average ISO, and a solid 133 WRC+. Under $4K and leading off against Sonny Gray who pitched only 2.2 innings on Sunday against the Pirates giving up 4 walks and 5 hits for 3 runs. In 2018 Gray had a 4.28 SIERA and a 4.59 xFIP dating back to 2018 against RHB.

Alex Bregman, HOU (3B/SS, $4800)

Houston has the highest IRT of 4.8 tonight and is home with the roof open and the humidity hanging between 74-84% during game time. Between Milwaukee and Houston, both will supply the best hitting environments on tonight’s slate and you could add Arizona in there as well. Bregman has been a go to for me so far this first week and I have no problem going right back to him tonight against RHP Frankie Montas and the Oakland A’s. Bregman has a .389 wOBA, .244 ISO and a great 153 WRC+ against RHP dating back to last season. Montas comes into the game with a career 4.57 xFIP and 4.47 SIERA.

Others: J. Aguilar, R. Devers, J. Baez, A. Rizzo, C. Correa,

Outfielders

Lorenzo Cain, MIL (OF, $4000)

There should be some runs scored in Milwaukee tonight as the Cubs and Brewers kick off a 3 game series. The Cubs pitching staff as a whole has been horrible to start the year, giving up 46 runs in just 6 games. Jose Quintana will take the rubber for the Cubs and in 2018 he posted a 4.40 xFIP to RHB. Lorenzo Cain will be leading off for the Brewers tonight and their 4.5 IRT is the second highest on the slate. Cain comes in at a cheap price tag and dating back to last season has a .425 wOBA and an elite 168 WRC+ against LHP. Make sure to get some Brewers and Cubs in your cash lines tonight.

J.D. Martinez, BOS (OF, $5000)

Boston has had a rough start to the 2019 season, but tonight get a match-up against RHP Zack Godley and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Godley was torched for 8 runs in 5 innings in his opener against the Dodgers and now gets a Boston team is more than capable of doing the same thing if not worse. Godley has given up a 37% HH Rate to RHB dating back to last season and J.D. Martinez has a .425 wOBA, .300 ISO and a 169 WRC+ against RHP, all elite numbers. J.D. is my #DFSHRCall of the night.

FTA Subscriber Austin’s Pick to Click:

Joe Musgrove, PIT (SP, $7600)

The Reds come into this game ice cold. As a team they have a .101 ISO and a .231 wOBA and are facing RHP Joe Musgrove who had a 21.8% K rate at home last season. Musgrove and the Pirates have the second lowest IRTA of 3.5 runs on the slate. Austin thinks this could be a pitching duel tonight in PIT, but has no problem making Musgrove his SP2.

Join us in chat for more advice on getting your lines ready for this evening, along with using our A.C.E. Projection System. I should be in chat most of the day to answer your questions along with other analyst’s and you can always get a hold of me on Twitter as well. Good Luck tonight and Play Ball.

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