Round the Bases (DraftKings MLB Picks) | 4/02/2019


Last night was fun as Toronto chalk busted once again, Cubs looked like a high school team and the HOU/TEX game combined for 3 runs after Vegas had the over/under at 10. Matz wasn’t lights out but it could have been worse. He gave up a 2 run bomb to Starlin Castro but thanks to a dropped third strike, with 2 outs, he was not charged with the runs. Khris Davis hit his league leading fifth HR at a cheap DK price tag and DK made him even cheaper tonight. Make sure you join us in chat as we fully break down the slate and the other MLB analyst as well as myself list our core plays for both cash games and tournaments. Check out our new A.C.E. Projection System as well to help with building your winning lineups. You can also follow me on twitter @DRockDFS.

04/01/19 Recap

  • Steven Matz, NYM ($8300) = 12.40 FPts.
  • Justin Turner, LAD (3B, $4200) = 5 FPts.
  • Javier Baez, CHC (SS, $5100) = 3 FPts.
  • Yandy Diaz, TB (1B/3B, $3500) = 11 FPts.
  • Khris Davis, OAK (OF, $4400) = 16 FPts.

Tonight we get a 10 game slate on DK that actually has some top notch starting pitching. Bryce Harper’s return to Washington could be delayed as Washington is expecting rain to last throughout the evening, there is a chance the game could get a late start instead of a PPD so make sure you are tuning into the FTA chat room tonight for updates on that situation. Let’s get into some DK Cash plays for tonight.

Pitcher

Blake Snell, TB ($9500)

With the PHI/WAS game looking like a a late start or even possible PPD, I am staying away from Max Scherzer. Instead for $2300 cheaper I will roll with Blake Snell as my SP1 tonight. $2K cheaper than Verlander and $1K cheaper than Sale and he has the ability to go point for point with both of them. Snell has the third best IRTA, at 3.1, on tonight’s slate and gets a Rockies team that struck out at a 24.6% rate on the road last season. In 2018, Snell had a 31.6% K Rate, 3.1 xFIP and a 44.7% GB Rate.

Infielders

Alex Bregman, HOU (3B/SS, $5000)

Besides George Springer, the Astros chalk was a bust last night. Tonight they will see a lot of ownership again and I will be going right back to them. Once again they have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.37 and are facing the horrible RHP Shelby Miller who has only started 8 games since 2016. Even before 2016 he was still horrible. Bregman has a .385 wOBA and a 0.244 ISO against RHP dating back to last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is the highest owned player on tonight’s slate and he is my #DFSHRCall tonight. If your thinking about fading Houston bats tonight because of price, The A.C.E. Projections System has Miller at a .540 wOBA and a 55.6% HH Rate against RHB. Don’t fade.

Justin Smoak, TOR (1B, $4200)

Who is sick of playing TOR chalk? I am as it seems like every night they let us down. At FTA we a have little tournament we do every night on DK called the Dome, and for fun I actually stacked the O’s and Hess last night. I won after going in thinking I wouldn’t even come close to cashing. Back to tonight though, I am going to suck it up and go right back to TOR. Dating back to last season, Justin Smoak has a .370 wOBA with a great .244 ISO against RHP. The O’s are sending Andrew Cashner to the mound tonight, on the road in 2018 Cashner gave up 1.85 HR/9 with a 5.0 xFIP. This will be the Jays last chance for me because if they can’t hit Cashner, then I’m not sure they can hit anyone at the major league level.

Outfielders

Domingo Santana, SEA (OF, $4000)

We finally have some last 30 AB data for 2019 to go off of. If you have not been watching the Seattle Mariners games to start the season, you have been missing some fun baseball. They have scored 54 runs in 7 games to start the year and look like a team that is in mid season form. Tonight they get RHP Trevor Cahill and the Angles at home. Domingo Santana has been raking to start the year with Seattle, in his last 30 AB’s against RHP this year he has a .476 wOBA, 4.23 ISO and a 44.4% HH Rate. It’s a small sample size and regression is ahead but when he only cost $4K, give me some. Cahill had a poor 4.17 xFIP to RHB in 2018 and gave up 2 HR in his first start of the year against the Oakland A’s last Thursday.

FTA Subscriber Pick to Click

Starting today, I’m going to try and get a sub at FTA to give me a player they really like for the night in DK cash games. Its going to be the FTA Subscriber Pick to Click. If you are not a subscriber at FTA, this will give you a chance everyday to see some knowledge that we got in the FTA community. Today’s subscriber spotlight is our new NASCAR and MLB Jr Analyst DRose.

Khris Davis, OAK (OF, $4300)

Davis comes in as one of my favorite plays on tonight’s slate. His priced dropped $100 after he hit his league leading fifth home run of the season last night. At first glance you may think, why Davis against Chris Sale? Davis is posting a .568 wOBA against lefty’s this year in 12 plate appearances. Sale was the farthest from sharp in his first start as he gave up 3 home runs in 3 innings to RHB. His velocity was down significantly from last year on all his pitches including fastball which took the biggest drop in close to 3 mph. Look to lock Khris “Krush” Davis into your lineups while he’s still cheap on Tuesday night

Join us in chat for more advice on getting your lines ready for this evening, along with using our A.C.E. Projection System. I should be in chat most of the day to answer your questions along with other analyst’s and you can always get a hold of me on Twitter as well. Good Luck tonight and Play Ball.

Fantasy Baseball

Leave a Reply