Khris Davis decided to end his home run drought last night and help a lot of FTA subs see green last night. I stayed away from the disaster start Nola put up and got plenty from Peacock and Bieber. Lindor hit a chalky home run but sticking to my process saved me from having more than 2 of the Cleveland bust last night. It really was a wild night for such a short slate but I managed to get the Streak to four days on DraftKings now. It is very important to check into chat each night as some of my plays here might change as lineups start coming out. Make sure to join us in chat as we fully break down the slate and the other MLB analysts, including myself list our core plays for both cash games and tournaments. Check out our new A.C.E. Projection System as well to help with building your winning lineups. You can also follow and DM me on twitter @DRockDFS. Want to join us but are not sure if you want to pay a monthly sub fee yet? Send us a dm and we can get you a free trial to give us a test run.
Tonight we get a 12-game slate on DraftKings with what is looking like a dry night for the first time in a while. Unlike last night we have top tier pitching to look at and an IRT over 6 for the Houston Astros, whose prices all went sky high over night. This should be a really fun night as we don’t have to worry about the CLE chalk and the Yankees against Cashner.
Caleb Smith, MIA ($9500)
It took seven starts for me to jump on board but I am finally convinced that Caleb Smith is the real deal. This is kind of a tricky game for him against the Tampa Bay Rays as he is a +135 underdog. The Rays against LHP in 2019 though lead the league in K Rate striking out at a 30.6% rate and have just a 96 WRC+. Smith in 2019 has a 34.8% K Rate which is third in baseball, starters with at least 20 IP, only behind Snell and Cole. He has a 2.98 xFIP, 2.99 SIERA and a 16.7% SwSTR (Swinging Strike Rate). I’m a little worried about the win bonus as he is opposing Charlie Morton but the K’s should more than well make up for it. Plus its baseball, anything can happen. Smith will be locked into my SP2 spot tonight.
Others: C. Sale, C. Morton, C. Kershaw, N. Syndergaard, L. Weaver, W. Miley
Robinson Cano, NYM (2B, $3500)
The Mets take on RHP Jeremy Hellickson and the Washington Nationals tonight in Washington. All season I have been picking on Hellickson against LHB and it hasn’t let me down yet. Hellickson has a 4.95 SIERA and against LHB this season is posting a .494 wOBA, 6.69 xFIP, 3.86 HR/9 and a 39% HH Rate. Cano over his last 30 AB’s against RHP has a .351 wOBA, 46.2% HH Rate and should be hitting third tonight. The game being in Washington only helps Cano more as its a big park upgrade compared to New York. You need value tonight and this is about as good as it gets. I expect Cano to push 50% tonight at this price in cash contest.
Yuli Gurriel, HOU (1B/3B, $4100)
The Astros will be a favorite tonight once again but at lower ownership due to DK sky rocketing their prices overnight. Bregman went up $900 compared to last night but Gurriel is at $4100 which is a good spot to get your HOU exposure. The Astros face LHP Ryan Carpenter who some could say is a definition of a gas can. He only has one start in 2019 and he gave up two home runs with six earned runs in five innings pitched. In 2018 over five starts he posted a 4.7 SIERA, 7.4 FIP and 3.22 HR/9. Gurriel has been hitting in the five spot since Altuve was put on the IL (Injured List) and over his last 14 games he has a .408 wOBA, .227 ISO and a 163 WRC+. The Astros come into tonight with the highest IRT on the slate of 6.2 runs, so you are going to want to find a way to get at least one in your cash line.
Others: A. Diaz, J. Smoak, M. Olsen, C. Correa, Y. Grandal, J. Panik, A. Bregman
Nicholas Castellanos, DET (OF, $4100)
I am really finding myself to like this price range tonight especially with the top tier pitching we get to choose from. Castellanos is heating up and gets a date with LHP Wade Miley tonight. This year Miley has a 4.61 SIERA with a 4.78 xFIP, 39% HH Rate and only a 13% K Rate against RHB. Over Castellanos last 30 AB’s is has a .208 ISO with a 43% HH Rate against LHP. In 2018 against LHP he posted an elite .424 wOBA, 172 WRC+ and a .190 ISO. Castellanos most likely will be hitting third tonight and is my #DFSHomeRunCall.
Khris Davis, OAK (OF, $4000)
Here is the chalk of the night as Davis was only $4k last night and went deep twice. For the second straight night he is priced at $4k and tonight gets RHP Mike Leake who dating back to last season has a 4.25 xFIP, .347 wOBA and a 36% HH Rate. Over Davis’s last 7 games he as an insane .643 wOBA, .667 ISO, 320 WRC+ and a 62.5% HH Rate. Will he hit two home runs again, maybe not but you do not want to be part of the 30% that don’t get his points if he does go deep again tonight. Just insert him into your cash line and move on. Try not to over think it.
Others: S. Piscotty, M. Gonzalez, M. Conforto, G. Springer, JD. Martinez, D. Peralta, M. Haniger, M. Kepler
Join us in chat for more advice and picks for tonight’s slate, along with using our A.C.E. Projection System for help with building your winning lines for tonight. I should be in chat most of the day to answer your questions along with other analyst’s and you can always get a hold of me on Twitter as well. Good Luck tonight and Play Ball.Fantasy Baseball