Round the Bases (DraftKings MLB Picks) | 05/10/19


Wednesday night was a success as the chalky pitching was spot on, a great call in chat from @jac3600 on C.J. Cron and late home runs by Benintendi and Turner to cap off the successful night. We are in a grove right now and look to keep pushing forward on a monster slate tonight. It is very important to check into chat each night as some of my plays here might change as lineups start coming out. Make sure to join us in chat as we fully break down the slate and the other MLB analysts, including myself list our core plays for both cash games and tournaments. Check out our new A.C.E. Projection System as well to help with building your winning lineups. You can also follow and DM me on twitter @DRockDFS. Want to join us but are not sure if you want to pay a monthly sub fee yet? Send us a dm and we can get you a free trial to give us a test run.

05/08/19 Recap

We get a massive 14 game slate tonight which includes some top shelf pitching, Coors Field, crazy number of IRT’s over 5 and Mike Trout against the O’s. Sounds exciting right? We have some weather concerns in BAL, NY (NL), BOS, and COL, but none looking serious as of right now. We learned yesterday that weather don’t matter in Coors as well. Lets get to it today.

Pitcher

Luis Castillo, CIN ($10,600)

RHP Luis Castillo and the Reds get a matchup in San Fan tonight against the dismal Giants. Most articles out there today will have either Verlander or Wheeler as their ACE for the night but I am going a different route. Castillo is my #1 tonight ahead of Verlander. The Giants this season have 23% K Rate, .164 ISO, 85 WRC+ and a .294 wOBA against RHP. Castillo has one of the best change ups in the game right now and is my pick for NL CY Young this season. He has a 30% K Rate with a 3.2 xFIP and a 3.5 SIERA with a 15% swinging strike rate which is seventh best in baseball for starters with at least 20 IP. The Reds have an IRTA of 3.4 tonight which is only .1 behind Verlander and the Astros. Don’t get me wrong Verlander and Wheeler are solid plays tonight but when it comes to Castillo or Verlander, I’ll take the discount.

Others: J. Verlander, Z. Wheeler, J. Odorizzi, T. Glasnow

Infielders

Jason Kipnis, CLE (2B, $3000)

With the price of pitching tonight and some expensive bats needed, we will need some value tonight. Kipnis jumps out right in front of me when it comes to value. He faces RHP Frankie Montas tonight in Oakland but is only $3K. In 2019 Kipnis hasn’t been great with a .278 wOBA and a 29% HH Rate although he has a .343 career wOBA against RHP. Montas dating back to last season has a 4.66 xFIP with a 45% HH Rate against LHB. Kipnis will most likely be hitting second tonight which makes this price tag even more favorable.

Nolan Arenado, COL (3B, $5700)

I don’t think I really need to sell anyone on this but tonight you have the tough decision of picking between Trout and Nado. LHP Eric Lauer will take the mound in Coors for the Padres tonight and in 2019 against RHB he is posting a 4.64 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, 44% HH Rate and a 43% FB Rate on top of a 4.4 SIERA. The Rockies have an IRT of 5.4 and Nado against LHP at home in 2019 is hitting an electric .580 wOBA, .412 ISO, 254 WRC+ with a 50% HH Rate. I don’t see fitting both Trout and Nado in your line tonight so digging deep into each will be needed before locking your lineups in.

Others: T. Story, T. LaStella, J. Profar, R. Cano, D. Murphey, J. Altuve, A. Simmons, M. Machado

Outfielders

Carlos Gonzalez, CLE (OF, $3300)

As you can tell we are going to be needing multiple $3k bats tonight. Cargo is another cold CLE bat coming into tonight but also as a really low price tag and should be hitting fifth against RHP Frankie Montas. Like I said in Kipnis Blurb Montas has a 4.66 xFIP against LHB this season and in 2019 Gonzalez only has a .291 wOBA but a decent 37% HH Rate against RHP and over his career has a .382 wOBA with .239 ISO. I have no problem playing Cargo in cash tonight due to the depressed price tag when salary relief is a big deal tonight.

Mike Trout, LAA (OF, $5700)

The fade Trout talk has already started today and I think if your reason for fading is because you are scared of him getting walked multiple times you are setting yourself up for failure. I get fading if you want Nado but not just because you see him getting walked. Trout gets a cake matchup against RHP Dan Straily who has a 6.4 SIERA this season. Against RHB in 2019 he has given up a .477 wOBA, 7.2 xFIP and 3.65 HR/9. Damn this is bad. Trout this season against RHP has an elite .447 wOBA, .261 ISO, 189 WRC+ and a crazy high 52.5% HH Rate. Damn that is good. I won’t fault you either way you go tonight but as of right now I am leaning towards the best player in the world I don’t care if Nado is seeing a lefty at Coors. They are so close I could change my mind though so make sure to join us in chat tonight to see which way we are going.

Others: M, Gonzalez, K. Davis, M. Kepler, S. Ohtani, F. Reyes, M. Olsen, M. Semien, J.D. Martinez,

Join us in chat for more advice and picks for tonight’s slate, along with using our A.C.E. Projection System for help with building your winning lines for tonight. I should be in chat most of the day to answer your questions along with other analyst’s and you can always get a hold of me on Twitter as well. Good Luck tonight and Play Ball.

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