Wow, was last night nasty. It started off great getting home runs from JD, Xander and a Grand Slam from Harper but then McHugh had his wheels fall off and crashed hard. I ended up not playing Cano who had a great game and instead went with the chalky Altuve who busted hard. And to top the night off pivoted Turner, who had three home runs, for Carpenter who managed one walk. Like I said before the best way to come back from a bad night is to just crush the next slate and that is what we will concentrate on tonight. It is very important to check into chat each night as some of my plays here might change as lineups start coming out. Make sure to join us in chat as we fully break down the slate and the other MLB analysts, including myself list our core plays for both cash games and tournaments. Check out our new A.C.E. Projection System as well to help with building your winning lineups. You can also follow and DM me on twitter @DRockDFS. Want to join us but are not sure if you want to pay a monthly sub fee yet? Send us a dm and we can get you a free trial to give us a test run.
Tonight we get an eight game slate on DraftKings which is looking more likely to be a seven game slate as Coors looks like a PPD. It is going to be cold in both Chicago and Detroit with each park having the wind blowing in around 15 mph. We also have the Boston Chalk to look forward to again as they get Mr. Cashner tonight in Baltimore.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($8400)
The Cubs and Marlins play game three of a four game series tonight at a cold Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in around 16 mph. Kyle Hendricks takes the mound and the Marlins against RHP this year have been the worst in baseball. Miami has a 26.8% K Rate which third worst in the league against RHP and a .267 wOBA, .096 ISO, and a 68 WRC+ which all rank last in the league. Kyle’s numbers haven’t been the best against RHB this year but with his price, weather conditions and it being Miami we can look past those a little bit.
Others: C. Sale, C. Kershaw, M. Boyd, K. Gibson
Justin Turner, LAD (3B, $3800)
I’m a dollar short and a day late here as yesterday I pivoted Turner to Carpenter to miss out on his three home run night. Am I expecting that again, absolutely not. DraftKings still has him under priced though and tonight he faces off against RHP Mike Foltynewicz. Folty is not a bum of a pitcher as he has a 3.6 xFIP against RHB and a 3.8 SIERA on the season. Turner is getting a 1.22 TruFV (FTA True Floor Value Rating) tonight and over his last 30 AB’s against RHP he supports a .377 wOBA with a 55% HH Rate. Turner is also getting a 12.8% HH Boost tonight and LA has a sub 5 IRT tonight.
Mitch Moreland, BOS (1B, $4700)
This might end up being more of a gpp play for me tonight but as of right now I am ok with it in cash. Boston has the highest IRT on the slate of 5.3 runs against RHP Andrew Cashner and the Orioles. Cashner for what its worth has actually been better against LHB than RHB this season but he still has a SIERA of 4.93. Against LHB he has a 4.76 xFIP with a 39% HH Rate and Moreland in 2019 has a .366 wOBA, .371 ISO with a 40% HH Rate against RHP. I will try getting here tonight as long as it don’t cost me other big bats but I won’t force him into cash.
Others: X. Bogaerts, J. Altuve, A. Bregman, M. Gonzalez, J. Candelario, B. Zobrist
J.D. Martinez, BOS (OF, $4900)
If you thought J.D. was chalk last night just wait until tonight. For some reason DK dropped his price for a matchup with Cashner. Cashner in 2019 against RHB has a .382 wOBA, 5.08 xFIP, 2.7 HR/9 and a 50% HH Rate. Over Martinez’s last 30 AB’s he has a .367 wOBA with a 46% HH Rate and last year he posted a .434 wOBA, .315 ISO, and a 1.051 OPS. Don’t over think this one just put him in your line and move on. I wouldn’t be shocked if he approaches 90% ownership on DK tonight.
Max Kepler, MIN (OF, $4300)
The Twins get the Jays tonight and young right handed prospect Trent Thornton. Thornton against LHB this year has a .334 wOBA with a 40% HH Rate and is giving up 1.89 HR/9. Kepler will lead off for Twins and over his last 30 AB’s against RHP is posting a .330 wOBA, 229 ISO and a 39% HH Rate. Minnesota also comes into the game with an IRT of 4.7 runs. I have no problem getting Kepler into my cash line tonight with JD.
Others: M. Betts, A. Benintendi, E. Rosario, Y. Puig, K. Schwarber, N. Senzel
Join us in chat for more advice and picks for tonight’s slate, along with using our A.C.E. Projection System for help with building your winning lines for tonight. I should be in chat most of the day to answer your questions along with other analyst’s and you can always get a hold of me on Twitter as well. Good Luck tonight and Play Ball.Fantasy Baseball