Rick Baso Report: Night Slate


There is no surprise that now Giannis is out, the Bucks are going to be SUPER chalk:

The last time Giannis was out, it  looked something like the picture above. The most owned player of the night slate will be Ersan Ilyasova. The last three games Giannis missed, he averaged 28 DK points in 23.5 min. A pivot that you may want to consider if you don’t want to eat the chalk is DJ Wilson. They’re going to have to give him more than the 22 min. he is currently averaging and expect more opportunities for rebounds.(avg about 4.5 over his last five.) Middleton has the highest usage differential of +9 and has about a 33% usg. rate without Giannis on the floor. Bledsoe is right behind him at 28%.  You can also expect Bledsoe rebounding rate to increase by 2.1% with Giannis off the floor. He currently avg. about 4.5 rebounds per game. Orlando is a terrible rebounding team currently ranked 23rd in rebounding rate this season.

On the other side of the ball, we have the Orlando Magic who will more than likely be under owned on this slate. My two favorite players on that side of the ball are Evan Fournier and Jonathan Isaac. While Isaac finds himself 1,000 dollars more expensive since Feb. 1st. He has been pretty much doing everything else. He has an opportunity today to put up a cheap double/double but if Ersan starts, it’s going to be difficult to entertain any magic.

The other game tonight is OKC VS. HOU

The spread on the game opened up at 235.5 and now its at a 237.  Remember guys, OKC defense is elite so I am not trusting that total. Sure, Paul and Gordon are back which will push the pace for the Rockets even more( 3.9% fewer half court plays with Gordon on the floor) but it’s going to be incredibly important to take the right pieces from this game. Harden is a fade for me.  His usage rate isn’t anywhere near from what it was( 38.4 % usg or below in the last four.) We cant expect his hot shooting to continue or at least I don’t today.

My top spend is easily going to be Westbrook. He will be looking to tie Wilt Chamberlain streak of 9 straight triple doubles tonight(narrative) Last time Westbrook played the Rockets, he scored 53 DK points and he shot terrible. He has been on a tear as of late, so look for him to be your top spend. 

Lineups and final thoughts  will be posted in Chat once news breaks. Good luck! 

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