QB Draft Strategy: Season long and 2nd half strength of schedule

Andrew Luck throwing a pass for the Indianapolis Colts

This is the follow up to the quarterback first half strength of schedule article. If you didn’t read the methodology, make sure you go through that post first.  This post will jump straight into the numbers.

Quarterback 2nd half strength of schedule (1-32 Ranking for DEF)

TEAM 2ndHalfPassing 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 IND 9.857 HOU PIT BYE TEN JAX BUF DEN BAL
2 SF 11.28 ARI NYG BYE SEA CHI HOU TEN JAX
3 NE 11.85 BYE DEN OAK MIA BUF MIA PIT BUF
4 TEN 13.28 BAL CIN PIT IND HOU ARI SF LAR
5 PHI 14.14 DEN BYE DAL CHI SEA LAR NYG OAK
6 CIN 14.57 JAX TEN DEN CLE PIT CHI MIN DET
7 CLE 14.57 BYE DET JAX CIN LAC GB BAL CHI
8 MIA 14.57 OAK CAR BYE NE DEN NE BUF KC
9 JAX 15.28 CIN LAC CLE ARI IND SEA HOU SF
10 OAK 15.42 MIA BYE NE DEN NYG KC DAL PHI
11 DET 15.85 GB CLE CHI MIN BAL TB CHI CIN
12 HOU 16.42 IND LAR ARI BAL TEN SF JAX PIT
13 LAR 16.42 NYG HOU MIN NO ARI PHI SEA TEN
14 WSH 16.71 SEA MIN NO NYG DAL LAC ARI DEN
15 ARI 16.71 SF SEA HOU JAX LAR TEN WSH NYG
16 LAC 16.85 BYE JAX BUF DAL CLE WSH KC NYJ
17 PIT 17.42 BYE IND TEN GB CIN BAL NE HOU
18 SEA 17.85 WSH ARI ATL SF PHI JAX LAR DAL
19 GB 18.00 DET CHI BAL PIT TB CLE CAR MIN
20 NYJ 18.28 BUF TB BYE CAR KC DEN NO LAC
21 CHI 18.28 BYE GB DET PHI SF CIN DET CLE
22 KC 18.71 DAL BYE NYG BUF NYJ OAK LAC MIA
23 NYG 19.14 LAR SF KC WSH OAK DAL PHI ARI
24 DEN 20.57 PHI NE CIN OAK MIA NYJ IND WSH
25 BAL 20.85 TEN BYE GB HOU DET PIT CLE IND
26 CAR 21.14 ATL MIA BYE NYJ NO MIN GB TB
27 BUF 21.85 NYJ NO LAC KC NE IND MIA NE
28 MIN 21.85 BYE WSH LAR DET ATL CAR CIN GB
29 DAL 22.71 KC ATL PHI LAC WSH NYG OAK SEA
30 NO 23.57 TB BUF WSH LAR CAR ATL NYJ ATL
31 ATL 24.85 CAR DAL SEA TB MIN NO TB NO
32 TB 26.28 NO NYJ BYE ATL GB DET ATL CAR

Quarterback season long strength of schedule (1-32 ranking)

TEAM SeasonPassing 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 IND 10.75 HOU PIT BYE TEN JAX BUF DEN BAL
2 TEN 12.19 BAL CIN PIT IND HOU ARI SF LAR
3 CIN 13.38 JAX TEN DEN CLE PIT CHI MIN DET
4 PIT 13.44 BYE IND TEN GB CIN BAL NE HOU
5 CLE 13.56 BYE DET JAX CIN LAC GB BAL CHI
6 JAX 13.63 CIN LAC CLE ARI IND SEA HOU SF
7 HOU 13.75 IND LAR ARI BAL TEN SF JAX PIT
8 SF 13.81 ARI NYG BYE SEA CHI HOU TEN JAX
9 LAR 14.00 NYG HOU MIN NO ARI PHI SEA TEN
10 LAC 14.06 BYE JAX BUF DAL CLE WSH KC NYJ
11 OAK 14.63 MIA BYE NE DEN NYG KC DAL PHI
12 WSH 14.69 SEA MIN NO NYG DAL LAC ARI DEN
13 GB 15.06 DET CHI BAL PIT TB CLE CAR MIN
14 NYG 15.19 LAR SF KC WSH OAK DAL PHI ARI
15 KC 15.25 DAL BYE NYG BUF NYJ OAK LAC MIA
16 DET 15.38 GB CLE CHI MIN BAL TB CHI CIN
17 BAL 15.50 TEN BYE GB HOU DET PIT CLE IND
18 ARI 15.50 SF SEA HOU JAX LAR TEN WSH NYG
19 NE 15.69 BYE DEN OAK MIA BUF MIA PIT BUF
20 NYJ 15.88 BUF TB BYE CAR KC DEN NO LAC
21 PHI 16.06 DEN BYE DAL CHI SEA LAR NYG OAK
22 SEA 16.38 WSH ARI ATL SF PHI JAX LAR DAL
23 DAL 16.69 KC ATL PHI LAC WSH NYG OAK SEA
24 CAR 17.06 ATL MIA BYE NYJ NO MIN GB TB
25 MIA 17.31 OAK CAR BYE NE DEN NE BUF KC
26 ATL 17.56 CAR DAL SEA TB MIN NO TB NO
27 NO 17.56 TB BUF WSH LAR CAR ATL NYJ ATL
28 DEN 17.56 PHI NE CIN OAK MIA NYJ IND WSH
29 TB 17.69 NO NYJ BYE ATL GB DET ATL CAR
30 BUF 17.81 NYJ NO LAC KC NE IND MIA NE
31 CHI 18.63 BYE GB DET PHI SF CIN DET CLE
32 MIN 19.38 BYE WSH LAR DET ATL CAR CIN GB

Quarterback 2nd half AND season long (Tiers approach)

TEAM 2ndHalfPassing SeasonPassing 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 IND 1.86 1.94 HOU PIT BYE TEN JAX BUF DEN BAL
2 SF 2.00 2.25 ARI NYG BYE SEA CHI HOU TEN JAX
3 PHI 2.29 2.44 DEN BYE DAL CHI SEA LAR NYG OAK
4 NE 2.29 2.56 BYE DEN OAK MIA BUF MIA PIT BUF
5 MIA 2.29 2.63 OAK CAR BYE NE DEN NE BUF KC
6 CIN 2.43 2.25 JAX TEN DEN CLE PIT CHI MIN DET
7 CLE 2.43 2.31 BYE DET JAX CIN LAC GB BAL CHI
8 OAK 2.43 2.31 MIA BYE NE DEN NYG KC DAL PHI
9 TEN 2.57 2.19 BAL CIN PIT IND HOU ARI SF LAR
10 LAR 2.57 2.25 NYG HOU MIN NO ARI PHI SEA TEN
11 WSH 2.57 2.31 SEA MIN NO NYG DAL LAC ARI DEN
12 PIT 2.71 2.25 BYE IND TEN GB CIN BAL NE HOU
13 LAC 2.71 2.19 BYE JAX BUF DAL CLE WSH KC NYJ
14 JAX 2.71 2.38 CIN LAC CLE ARI IND SEA HOU SF
15 NYJ 2.71 2.50 BUF TB BYE CAR KC DEN NO LAC
16 ARI 2.71 2.50 SF SEA HOU JAX LAR TEN WSH NYG
17 DET 2.71 2.44 GB CLE CHI MIN BAL TB CHI CIN
18 HOU 2.86 2.31 IND LAR ARI BAL TEN SF JAX PIT
19 SEA 2.86 2.56 WSH ARI ATL SF PHI JAX LAR DAL
20 CHI 2.86 2.81 BYE GB DET PHI SF CIN DET CLE
21 NYG 3.00 2.38 LAR SF KC WSH OAK DAL PHI ARI
22 KC 3.00 2.38 DAL BYE NYG BUF NYJ OAK LAC MIA
23 GB 3.00 2.50 DET CHI BAL PIT TB CLE CAR MIN
24 BAL 3.14 2.50 TEN BYE GB HOU DET PIT CLE IND
25 CAR 3.14 2.69 ATL MIA BYE NYJ NO MIN GB TB
26 DEN 3.14 2.69 PHI NE CIN OAK MIA NYJ IND WSH
27 MIN 3.14 2.88 BYE WSH LAR DET ATL CAR CIN GB
28 DAL 3.29 2.44 KC ATL PHI LAC WSH NYG OAK SEA
29 BUF 3.43 2.69 NYJ NO LAC KC NE IND MIA NE
30 ATL 3.57 2.75 CAR DAL SEA TB MIN NO TB NO
31 NO 3.57 2.75 TB BUF WSH LAR CAR ATL NYJ ATL
32 TB 3.71 2.75 NO NYJ BYE ATL GB DET ATL CAR

Conclusions:

  • We keep waiting for Andrew Luck to return to his former dominance, but with injuries and the forbidding S.O.S 2017 might not be the year.  I’ll likely be avoiding him on draft day unless he falls to a round too good to ignore.
  • Drew Brees and Jameis Winston both have terrific 2nd half strength of schedules.  After a rough 1st half I may look to buy low on Jameis for a strong 2nd half finish
  • Tom Brady goes from the 3rd easiest schedule to the 4th toughest.  By mid season we’ll have a better idea of just how good his opposing pass defenses are, but for now its certainly something to keep an eye on.

For more articles like this check out my RB strength of schedule 1st half and 2nd half

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