Yesterday was a disaster. Bronson Arroyo and the Reds bullpen somehow held Baltimore in check and my proclaimed “lock of the year” in Manny Machado did nothing which pretty much rendered me useless last night. I’m confident we’ll get it back tonight with an 11-game slate, and if you want to gain the best edge in the industry, sign up for our FTA+ premium content which gives you unlimited access to our spreadsheet and LIVE chat. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($12,900)
Pitching is DEEP today which may lead you to other options in cash, but it’s still a Kershaw day for me. There is no bigger lock in DFS MLB as Kershaw has a 1.13 ERA and 33% K rate at home since the beginning of 2014. The Rockies are nowhere near the same offense on the road and park factors over the last five years show that L.A. has been the most pitcher-friendly park. Kershaw is a whopping -290 favorite and is a virtual lock for a QS even if he somehow doesn’t get the win (Dodgers’ offense is hurting right now).
Other options – Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Chris Archer
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY ($8600)
The Yankees offense went cold yesterday and denied Luis Severino the win but he was still everything I expected he would be yesterday against the White Sox offense. Tanaka gets the same matchup today and it’s significantly cooler in NY. The Yankees are huge favorites at -215 and Chicago ranked 24th in wRC+ against RHP while also striking out the seventh most against them.
Other options – Amir Garrett, Vincent Velasquez, Robert Gsellman, Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Bauer, Jason Vargas
Buster Posey, SF ($3900)
I’m curious how many will be scared off by Jason Vargas’ hot start and avoid Posey. Of course, if you’re rostering Kershaw, avoiding Posey is a necessity in cash but I love him in GPPs as he’s crushed LHP in his career (.374 wOBA, .180 ISO against over the last two years). He’s also getting a park upgrade in KC.
Other options – None
Welington Castillo, BAL ($2800)
As I said, the Orioles were a huge letdown yesterday, but we have to go right back to them despite Amir Garrett flashing some nice stuff early on. The O’s once again have an IRT of five runs and aren’t losing anything in park factor going from Baltimore to Cincinnati. Castillo has been spectacular against LHP over the last few years, posting a .352 wOBA and .223 ISO.
Other options – Russell Martin, Yasmani Grandal, Jason Castro, Yan Gomes
Joey Votto, CIN ($3800)
The Reds bats went off yesterday and get another chance to do so against Ubaldo Jimenez. The Orioles’ righty has allowed a .378 wOBA and 1.53 HR/9 to LHB over the past two years and Votto’s insane OBP rates make him a high floor cash option. Baltimore’s bullpen is significantly weaker without Zach Britton as well.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Goldschmidt, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Davis
Greg Bird, NYY ($2700)
Bird has dropped to sixth in the Yankees order which is not ideal, but he’s hitting in Yankee Stadium which is a paradise for left-handed hitting. The Yanks have an IRT of 4.7 runs and are facing Dylan Covey who ZiPS projects at a 5.91 ERA and a 5.77 K/9 for this year. The White Sox bullpen behind him is nothing to write home about either.
Other options – Albert Pujols, Brandon Belt, Jose Abreu, Logan Morrison