It’s Thursday, which means my article will focus on the wonders of Fanduel NFL and all week 10 has to offer us. I won’t have an NBA article to share today, but I will be on chat later helping everyone set your lineups in cash and GPP (I had another day where I finished one point out of the money so this week has been rather frustrating). You can follow me on twitter @jac3600, and I take any and all seasonal and DFS questions there.
Fanduel NFL Lineup | Week 10
Dak Prescott, DAL ($8800)
Right now Dak is overpriced relative to other solid cash plays, but if Ezekiel Elliott is ruled out it will place a lot more offensive responsibility on Dak’s shoulders. The Dallas-Atlanta game is projected to be a shootout with a 2-point spread and a 51-point O/U. The Falcons rank 24th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the fifth most FPPG to the QB position.
Other options – Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Drew Brees
Matt Ryan, ATL ($7700)
Matt Ryan is likely where I’m headed in cash this week, as he comes with the same game upside at an $1100 discount to Dak. Dallas’ most vulnerable spot is their rush defense but they still rank 19th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the seventh most FPPG to opposing QBs. Ryan’s efficiency has taken a huge dip without Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta, but he’s still throwing for massive YPG and that shouldn’t change this week.
Other options – Tyrod Taylor, Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, Josh McCown
C.J. Beathard, SF ($6300)
As much as it pains me to say, the Giants need to be attacked in DFS now. They’re a cratering team as a whole, and the players have clearly given up on their coach and on the season. They allowed Jared Goff and the Rams to put up 51 points on them last week and they now rank 26th in pass defense DVOA. Beathard is no great upside QB but he should have a little more this week and his price allows for studs at the skill positions.
Other options – Eli Manning, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Owseiler
LeVeon Bell, PIT ($9400)
Bell is a lock for me this week, and I don’t care what his price tag is. The Steelers are 12-point favorites against a Colts team that has allowed almost 29 PPG (most in the NFL), ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 25th in rush defense DVOA. They released the injured Vontae Davis which opens the middle up even more, and Bell’s floor is about as high as you could possibly imagine it. Don’t overthink this one.
Other options – Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette
LeSean McCoy, BUF ($8300)
McCoy is still a bit too expensive to pair alongside Bell in cash with some values that exist on this slate, but it’s still a viable option (plus he’s an elite GPP play). The Saints defense is apparently for real, as the now rank top ten in both overall DVOA and pass defense DVOA, but they’re still 26th against the run. In a game that projects as a near must-win for the Bills, expect them to lean heavily on McCoy against what seems to be the Saints’ only weak spot.
Other options – Melvin Gordon, Jordan Howard, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram
Carlos Hyde, SF ($6700)
Being on a winless team does not make a player pop in DFS, but Hyde has been one of the most consistent forces in the game this year. He has the second highest market share of carries to any RB (only LeVeon Bell has more) and is now being featured in the passing game. Over the past three weeks, Hyde has 28 targets, and that skill fits perfectly against the Giants defense.
Other options – Lamar Miller, Devonta Freeman, Joe Mixon, Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson, Orleans Darkwa
Antonio Brown, PIT ($9300)
There’s not much left to say about Brown. He leads the NFL in targets, air yards, and yards per route run, and is second in market share only to DeAndre Hopkins. He gets a stunning matchup against the Colts who are 25th in pass defense DVOA and will be without Vontae Davis, and his price is actually down a bit. It’s possible to fit him in with LeVeon Bell (and I have no problem doing that), but if you have to choose one I would lean Bell simply for higher touch floor and game script.
Other options – Julio Jones
A.J. Green, CIN ($7900)
Green busted big time after logging only one catch in week 9 before going all MMA on Jalen Ramsey. You shouldn’t have been playing him anyway against the Jaguars, who are on pace to be a historically good pass defense (they’ve only allowed four passing TDs all year!). Green gets a much better matchup this week against Tennessee who ranks 26th against WRs and 22nd in pass defense DVOA, and he has the fourth highest market share in the NFL at just over 32%.
Other options – Michael Thomas, Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs
Marvin Jones, DET ($6400)
Don’t forget the Lions this weekend, who get a cookie of a matchup against the Browns who are winless and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA. Jones was almost invisible to start the season but has now racked up an incredible 36 targets over the past three games to go along with three TDs. He’s basically a free square at his price and is one I’m locking into cash around the industry.
Other options – Demaryius Thomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, Emmanuel Sanders, Robby Anderson, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Sterling Shepard, DeSean Jackson, Marqise Lee
Rob Gronkowski, NE ($8100)
It’s really hard to stomach Gronk’s price tag on FD which refuses to drop for anything. He’s in a really good spot this week, however, as Denver ranks top five in DVOA against both WR1s and WR2s but is 25th against TEs. New England also projects to be without Chris Hogan which should not only open up more targets for Gronk but more RZ looks as well. Again, paying this price tag is not an ideal way to build, but the upside is so massive I’m fine with it.
Other options – Evan Engram
Mid-tier options – Jack Doyle, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Delanie Walker, TEN ($5500)
The Tennessee passing game is tough to predict with all the mouths to feed (and now Corey Davis is back as well), but Walker has the third highest market share of targets among all TEs and is second on his team (Rishard Matthews is just ahead of him). Cincinnati is another funnel defense that plays bracket coverage on the WRs which opens up the middle for TEs to flourish. I wish Walker was a touch cheaper, but his price is low enough for cash (and is an elite GPP play).
Other options – Cameron Brate, O.J. Howard, Tyler Kroft, Kyle Rudolph, Vernon Davis, Garrett Celek
TOP FIVE DEFENSES FOR CASH GAMES
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4600)
Los Angeles Rams ($5400)
Detroit Lions ($5300)
Chicago Bears ($4300)
Jacksonville Jaguars ($5200)