I hope all our Fanduel NFL subs followed our advice in chat last night, as our NBA was a mega success. I personally harped on Joel Embiid and Marc Gasol all day and had both of them in the majority of my lineups, which padded my account nicely as they combined for over 160 FPS themselves (unreal). If you haven’t tried out FTA+ yet, we have options for any budget including day passes available on our membership accounts page.
There are some gaudy matchups to target on Fanduel NFL for week 11, so let’s see what we can come up with. Enjoy the PIT/TEN game tonight (which should actually be good), and you can follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Tom Brady, NE ($8600)
Tom Terrific leads the way this week, and I’d strongly consider locking him into cash with FanDuel’s loose pricing. With Mike Gillislee becoming a healthy scratch for the Patriots, they’ve locked themselves back into full passing mode and they’ll take on the Raiders who rank dead last in both overall DVOA and pass defense DVOA. The potential for a 350 yard-3 TD game is definite.
Other options – Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Drew Brees
Alex Smith, KC ($7900)
Any of the major Chiefs are cash worthy this week, as you’ll see throughout this article. The Giants have cratered all the way to 28th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass defense DVOA, and just made Jared Goff and C.J. Beathard look like hall of fame QBs the last two weeks. The Chiefs have the third highest implied team total of the week, and Smith should feast.
Other options – Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, Case Keenum
Jay Cutler, MIA ($6600)
Gross. I hate even considering this guy, but I do have to say he has three viable options in the receiving game with Landry, Parker, and Stills, and the matchup couldn’t get much better. The Bucs have plummeted defensively this year, ranking 30th in overall DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA, and offer virtually no pass rush to force Cutler’s usually high turnover ratio. He can’t be trusted in cash, but is a phenomenal GPP play.
Other options – Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick
Kareem Hunt, KC ($8600)
With LeVeon Bell not on the Sunday slate we’re looking elsewhere for a top play, and honestly Hunt might have taken this top spot even with Bell available. Hunt’s snap count has been puzzlingly low lately, but the Chiefs are 12-point favorites over the Giants and New York has fallen to 27th in rush defense DVOA along with their other deficiencies. The efficient Chiefs offense is in a great spot this week, and you want at least one big piece.
Other options – Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram
Melvin Gordon, LAC ($7800)
Gordon is a week bit underpriced, which I suspect has to do with the breakout game of Austin Ekeler last week. There should be no difference in Gordon’s snap count in a favorable game script this week (Chargers favored by 5 over the Bills). Buffalo has allowed by far the most FPPG to opposing RBs over the last four weeks which has now led to them ranking 31st against the position. Gordon is fully healthy and is a high bet for a TD.
Other options – LeSean McCoy, Alvin Kamara, Jordan Howard
Joe Mixon, CIN ($5900)
The combination of Mixon’s and the whole Bengals team’s inefficiencies this year makes him a scary cash option, but the price is just so low at $5900. Since Jeremy Hill was removed from the equation, Mixon has received 71% of the team’s carries and averaged four targets per game in the passing attack. Denver is a tough matchup but this is RB1 volume for an RB3 price.
Other options – Chris Thompson, Jerick McKinnon, Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Rex Burkhead
Michael Thomas, NO ($8600)
What a weird week for the WR position! Based on scheduling and tough matchups, we’re forced to go to a much different name at the top, but Thomas certainly warrants consideration in all formats even at an elevated price tag. Thomas has a 39% market share of targets over the past three weeks which has raised his season total to 28% and the Saints have the highest implied team total of the week at 31 points (even higher than the Patriots). The Saints’ newfound running ways introduces risk to Thomas, but Washington ranks 20th against WRs and it’s easy to make him avoid Josh Norman.
Other options – A.J. Green, Brandin Cooks
Dez Bryant, DAL ($7400)
Dez’s talent level should keep his price tag in the same range as the guys listed above, but the fact that he’s cheaper really enhances his value. Even with so much focus on Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott in the Dallas offense, Dez has maintained a 29% market share of targets which in top ten in the NFL, and he should be the primary red zone target with Zeke not in the picture. Dez is a solid night game hammer to close out your cash lineups for the week.
Other options – DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen
Sterling Shepard, NYG ($6500)
Shepard is flat-out mispriced around the industry, and is a cash game lock for me for the third straight week. Since returning, Shepard has played on 97% of the snaps for the Giants and received 22 targets in two weeks. The Giants will undoubtedly be playing from behind and KC slot corner Steven Nelson has been horrid this year.
Other options – Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Jeremy Maclin, Ted Ginn, Cooper Kupp, Emmanuel Sanders, Jamison Crowder, Bruce Ellington
Travis Kelce, KC ($7500)
The minute Garrett Celek scored a TD last week, we all started talking on twitter about how chalky Travis Kelce will be. That holds true for me still, but don’t forget that Rob Gronkowski is really just as good, and it’s Kelce’s $700 discount that gives him the edge. The Giants rank 26th in DVOA against the TE, and have allowed the most FPPG to the position this year while allowing a TD in EVERY GAME so far. Kelce is an incredibly efficient player who leads all TEs in market share.
Other options – Rob Gronkowski, Zack Ertz, Evan Engram
Benjamin Watson, BAL ($4900)
If you’re not allocating funds to one of the top TEs this week (which I am), it makes a lot of sense to just punt the position altogether. Watson is a sub-5k player that comes with upside against the Green Bay defense who has allowed the third highest target rate to TEs while ranking 20th in DVOA against the position. He comes with a low floor, but also a high TD probability due to his RZ prowess.
Other options – Jared Cook, Jason Witten, Kyle Rudolph, Vernon Davis, Tyler Kroft
TOP FIVE DEFENSES FOR CASH GAMES
Jacksonville Jaguars ($5600)
Los Angeles Chargers ($4300)
Kansas City Chiefs ($5100)
Baltimore Ravens ($4700)
Denver Broncos ($4800)