After a dull little three-game slate last night, we’re back in business today with ten contests to sift through, and the injuries to Anthony Davis and Stephen Curry are making the expensive chalk pretty easy to spot right now. It’s the values we need to find if we’re going to build successful lineups, and we’re working hard for you at FTA+. We’ll be in chat later on tonight, and make sure to check out our constantly updated projections. You can also follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Fanduel NBA Wednesday December 6th 2017
Dennis Schroder, ATL ($8100)
Point guard is not the position to spend on in cash tonight, so this is strictly a GPP play. Schroder is 13th in the NBA with a 29.9% usage rate, and the game environment is terrific. Orlando and Atlanta are both top ten in pace and bottom ten in overall defensive efficiency, and the Magic rank 28th in defensive efficiency against PGs. Schroder won’t command much ownership at his price, and he has 40-50 point upside tonight.
Other options – Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving
Mid-tier options – Elfrid Payton, Eric Bledsoe, Kris Dunn
Rajon Rondo, NO ($6000)
Rondo’s price is on the rise, but it’s still not correct for the boosts he’s gotten with Anthony Davis out. Rondo has over a 40% assist rate in the last five games and has averaged 11 PPG and 10.5 APG in the two games Anthony Davis has missed. He and DeMarcus Cousins (who is once again the top stud to pay for) have found the same chemistry from their Sacramento days, and Denver ranks 25th in defensive efficiency against PGs.
Other options – Jeff Teague, Austin Rivers, Goran Dragic, Jamal Murray, DeAaron Fox, Terry Rozier, Shaun Livingston
Klay Thompson, GS ($6900)
I’m dipping down the pricing scale for the “top” play tonight, but Klay seems like a gift on FanDuel at under $7k. Stephen Curry has been ruled out for the next two weeks, and Klay’s usage rate jumps to almost 28% with Curry off the court while his assist rate grows to a modest 10%. The Warriors are on the road in Charlotte and the spread is much closer than what we normally see from the Warriors games. Draymond Green is also questionable to play which would make Klay even more enticing.
Other options – Victor Oladipo
Mid-tier options – Tyreke Evans, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Gary Harris
E’Twaun Moore, NO ($4800)
Moore has played 36, 34, and 37 minutes over the last three games which makes his $4800 price tag simply too cheap. He can be used in all formats with Anthony Davis set to miss another game, and gets a prime environment to showcase his skills in. The Pelicans and Nuggets rank seventh and 13th in pace, respectively, and the spread is close on this one. Denver also ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency against SGs.
Other options – Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Kent Bazemore, Danny Green
Kevin Durant, GS ($10,000)
You have a very clear mission in cash tonight. Cousins must be played, and Durant must be played. There are already more than enough values to make this work, and I would strongly advise against any other means of building the main lines. Kevin Durant sees a 32% usage rate and 25% assist rate with Stephen Curry off the floor, and those rates (along with his rebounding rate) would grow even more if Draymond Green were forced to miss this game. Durant is significantly cheaper than the other top SFs on this slate, and has the means to outscore both tonight just from a raw total. Get him in your lineups and don’t look back.
Other options – Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Jimmy Butler
Mid-tier options – Harrison Barnes
Rudy Gay, SA ($6200)
I’m likely going to look much cheaper than this for my SF2 to complement Durant, but Gay is really the best value of any player under the average cost of a roster spot. With Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Anderson both out for the Spurs, Gay serves to be the main beneficiary, as he played 31 minutes last game and racked up a double-double. The game environment between the Heat and Spurs should be slow and low-scoring, but Miami ranks 20th against SFs and Gay had almost a 25% usage rate last game.
Other options – Jonathan Simmons, Taurean Prince, Jaylen Brown, Wilson Chandler, Wesley Johnson, Courtney Lee, Andre Iguodala, Omri Casspi, DeAndre Bembry
Kristaps Porzingis, NY ($9000)
There will be no room in my cash lineups for Porzingis with such a high priority on Cousins and Durant, but Porzingis is a great sneaky play. People generally avoid players against Memphis (as they once again rank last in pace and seventh in overall defensive efficiency), but they’re actually a funnel offense. The Grizzlies are top ten in defensive efficiency against every position except PF (where they rank 24th), and KP still ranks fifth in the NBA in usage rate with a 32.2% mark. He’s one of my favorite GPP options tonight.
Other options – Aaron Gordon, LaMarcus Aldridge, Draymond Green (GTD)
Mid-tier options – None
Taj Gibson, MIN ($5700)
Taj will never have GPP-winning upside, but he remains an excellent cash option for about 15% less than the average roster spot. Even with Gorgui Dieng back (who played 20 minutes), Taj still logged 37 minutes last game as the Timberwolves played Tom Thibodeaux’s patented tight rotation (only eight players saw the court). With all their injuries, the Clippers have fallen all the way to 27th in overall defensive efficiency, and Blake Griffin is not around to induce fouls from Taj.
Other options – Tobias Harris, Thaddeus Young, Damontas Sabonis, Zack Randolph, John Henson, Kenneth Faried, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Jayson Tatum
DeMarcus Cousins, NO ($11,300)
It’s gotta be done, even if you think he’s too expensive (and you’d be wrong, by the way). Boogie has shot past his value threshold in every game so far with Anthony Davis off the court, and should have no problem continuing to do so against the Jokic-less Nuggets. It’s laughable to think of anyone else in Denver’s front court even slowing Cousins down, and his usage rate with Davis off the court is now up over 39%. Lock him in every time in this scenario until he starts to sniff the 12k range.
Other options – Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Vucevic
Mid-tier options – DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard
Mason Plumlee, DEN ($5800)
Plumlee is the top value of the night at center, but is one that I will only be deploying in tournaments. Plumlee saw limited minutes last game but that was more due to game scenario than anything else, as his size wasn’t required. Tonight it certainly will be as he attempts to slow down Cousins, and Plumlee should see 30 minutes provided he doesn’t get into foul trouble (which, of course, is a big risk against the Boogie Man). Plumlee is a great way to access top players at other spots and build unique lineups in GPPs.
Other options – Pau Gasol, Enes Kanter, Robin LopezDaily NBA, DFS Lineup Advice