Fanduel NBA Friday 3/9/18

Kevin Durant shrugging his shoulders after hitting a shot for the Golden State Warriors

Get ready for an absolutely epic ten-game slate tonight. We already have key injuries opening up massive values, and some severely underpriced players. This is especially the case on DraftKings as you’ll find on our updated DFS NBA Dashboard, and be sure to check out our podcast where we hash out every game and talk about the best ways to attack these ten games. We are available every night in chat for our FTA+ subscribers, and you can follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!

Fanduel NBA Cash Plays | Friday 3/9/18

POINT GUARD

TOP PLAY
Damian Lillard, POR ($9700)
Lillard will not make it into my cash lineups tonight based on key plays at other position, but one cannot simply ignore how he’s owned the Warriors over the last two years. Lillard had that epic 51-point, 7-assist, 6-steal game against them last year, and just smoked them for 61.6 FD points on Valentine’s Day. Steph Curry will sit in this game, and we now have a one-point spread with a 218 O/U. Golden State ranks 11th against PGs but they’re third in pace which will really drive Lillard’s game. He’s cash worthy, and an elite tournament option.
Other options – Chris Paul
Mid-tier options – Eric Bledsoe, Kyle Lowry, Lonzo Ball

VALUE PLAY
Frank Mason, SAC ($3900)
There are already very nice punts on the board for tonight’s slate, but if DeAaron Fox (doubtful) is officially ruled out, Fox will join the group as one of the best overall values this evening. Mason’s posted a 23% UR and 22% AR in the games he’s started for Fox this year, and the Kings will get to face the Magic who rank eighth in pace and 27th in overall defense, plus are last against opposing PGs since the ASG.
Other options – Rajon Rondo, Tomas Satoransky, Fred VanVleet, Emmanuel Mudiay, George Hill, Shaun Livingston, Shelvin Mack (a lock if Augustin sits)

SHOOTING GUARD

TOP PLAY
Jrue Holiday, NO ($8500)
I have to be honest – even with the insane boost Holiday should get tonight (Anthony Davis is doubtful), it’s tough to decide between him and Bradley Beal. I’m still going to lean Holiday’s way if forced to choose one, but I’d love to have both. Holiday had a 29% UR and 24% AR with just COUSINS of the floor, and now we subtract Davis’ insane rates as well. The matchup with Washington is difficult (they’re second against SGs), but Jrue has far too much opportunity to ignore tonight.
Other options – James Harden (oh yeah, he’s here too!), Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, Lou Williams
Mid-tier options – Donovan Mitchell, CJ McCollum, Khris Middleton, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Harris

NOTE: Otto Porter is a GTD. If he sits, you have to bump Beal to the top of the list, even over Jrue.

VALUE PLAY
Buddy Hield, SAC ($5700)
Hield is doing his best to make the most of his newfound minutes on an inefficient Kings team. His usage rate is up to 25% over the last ten games while mainly hitting 30+ minutes. Those minutes would be further stabilized if DeAaron Fox is actually ruled out, and Hield gets the defenseless Magic who are ranked 28th against opposing SGs.
Other options – Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kent Bazemore, Jordan Clarkson

SMALL FORWARD

TOP PLAY
Kevin Durant, GS ($9800)
LeBron is in a fantastic matchup tonight, but you can’t fade Kevin Durant at $2700 less (and just check out his price on DraftKings!). Steph Curry is out and KD has a 34% UR, 12% RR, and 24% AR when that happens, and the Warriors are still thin in the frontcourt as well. Look for KD to approach 40 minutes in a huge game against Portland, and lock him into cash at under 10k.
Other options – LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Mid-tier options – Otto Porter

VALUE PLAY
Jonathan Simmons/Mario Hezonja, ORL ($4500/$4300)
I’d like to tell everyone to go double cheap at SF with these guys, but you need Durant, which means you have to pick one as your SF2. Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon are both out for Orlando tonight, and the Magic should have a supremely condensed rotation in a good matchup against Sacramento (29th in overall team defense, 27th against SFs). Hezonja shined the first time Aaron Gordon missed multiple games, but Simmons actually benefits the most in terms of usage and assist rates (25% UR, 15% AR with Fournier off the court, and Aaron Gordon’s absence obviously makes it even better). I’d lean Simmons if choosing, but both are stellar cash options.
Other options – Reggie Bullock, E’Twaun Moore, James Ennis, Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler

POWER FORWARD

TOP PLAY
Draymond Green, GS ($7700)
It’s a double Warrior night for sure this evening. Dray put up a triple-double last night in a tough draw against the Spurs, and gets a better matchup this evening against Portland (seventh in overall team defense, but 22nd against PFs). Dray has a 19% UR, 13% RR, and a whopping 34% AR with Curry off the court, and his price nowhere near reflects this. Hot take – another triple-double is coming.
Other options – Blake Griffin, Julius Randle
Mid-tier options – Larry Nance, Kyle Kuzma, Bobby Portis, Nikola Mirotic, Paul Millsap

VALUE PLAY
Nikola Mirotic/Cheick Diallo, NO ($6700/$3500)
One of your PFs tonight should come from New Orleans, as they are the most direct positional beneficiary of Anthony Davis’ injury. Mirotic would likely start in his place and he’s seen his usage bump to 24% and his rebounding rate go up to 13% with Davis off the court. Diallo is a riskier option since we don’t know his minutes, but if you want to project 22-24 you’re looking at a guy who has posted an elite 21% rebounding rate with Davis off the court. He was only able to play 12 last time when Davis left the game, but Diallo himself banged knees with Kosta Koufos so the representation of his upside is not totally accurate.
Other options – JaMychal Green, John Collins, Thaddeus Young, Montrezl Harrell, Markieff Morris, Jae Crowder, John Henson

CENTER

TOP PLAY
Nikola Vucevic, ORL ($9200)
Vuc is frustratingly fully priced on FD, but he’s still an excellent play in all formats. With Aaron Gordon off the court since the beginning of last year, Vuc has posted a 30% UR, 16% RR, and 20% AR, and faces a Kings team that ranks 29th against opposing centers and 28th in rebounding rate. If you saved enough money without sacrificing the key players at other position, you can absolutely pay up for Vuc in cash.
Other options – Andre Drummond, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
Mid-tier options – DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Clint Capela, Enes Kanter

VALUE PLAY
Myles Turner, IND ($6300)
Turner is a touch too cheap on FD (and an even better value on DK). Indiana is fighting for playoff seeding (which, by the way, is super impressive after trading away their superstar player in the offseason), and Turner has played 29, 38, 29, and 30 minutes over the last four. Atlanta ranks ninth in pace, 22nd in overall team defense, and 26th in rebounding rate, and Turner has averaged over a FanDuel point per minute for his career. If you can’t afford the higher priced guys like Vuc, Turner is fine in all formats.
Other options – Jusuf Nurkic, Kosta Koufos, Emeka Okafor, Mike Muscala

Fantasy Basketball

Leave a Reply