Fanduel MLB Sunday 7/16

New York Mets left hander Steven Matz throwing a pitch

Made the right calls on pitching yesterday, but the offense wasn’t quite enough to carry me through (very close). Today we have our Sunday afternoon main slate which leaves a lot to be desired on the SP end. For that reason, we’ll focus on offense as much as we can, starting again with the Cubbies. I may not make chat in time today, but I’ll try, and you can always follow me on twitter @jac3600.

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STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Yu Darvish, TEX ($9900)

Darvish tops the SP list thanks to a healthy K projection, but even he’s not safe as the Royals are hot and don’t strike out much. I’m still willing to use him in cash since there aren’t any better options, and the Royals do rank 26th in wRC+ against RHP. I expect Darvish will command heavy ownership in cash, which makes him a GPP fade since it’s above 90 degrees in KC.

Other options – Carlos Martinez, Rich Hill

VALUE PLAY

Steven Matz, NYM ($8300)

If you want to save a few bucks and embrace some more risk, Matz looks like the way to go. The Rockies have the lowest IRT on the slate at 3.9 runs (which is still meh) and rank 21st in wRC+ against LHP while striking out the sixth most against them. Matz doesn’t have Darvish’s K upside but he saves you $1600 which can be put towards some top bats.

Other options – Jose Quintana, Mike Fiers, Rick Porcello, Jaime Garcia, Marco Estrada, CC Sabathia

CATCHER

TOP PLAY

Willson Contreras, CHC ($3400)

Gary Sanchez is $100 cheaper but I highly doubt he plays the first game after catching 16 innings yesterday. That leaves Contreras at the top, although he’s a risk of not playing as well in a day game after a night game. Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching for the Orioles and the Cubs are rocking an IRT of 5.8 runs, by far the highest on the slate. They should at least be mini-stacked in cash.

Other options – Gary Sanchez, Brian McCann

VALUE PLAY

Alex Avila, DET ($2700)

Avila will hit second (if he plays) and will face off against Marco Estrada who has vastly increased his K rate but still struggles with the HR ball (1.41 HR/9 allowed since 2015). Avila’s hard hit rate is down right now but he’s been very consistent with a 34.7% mark all season.

Other options – Chris Iannetta, Russell Martin, Mike Zunino, Any punt

FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4000)

On DraftKings this decision will be more difficult since Miguel Cabrera is still inexplicably a punt over there, but Rizzo is my favorite hitter of the day and the first name I’m locking into cash on FanDuel. He is the best hitter (arguably) on the best team to target, and Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed a .397 wOBA and 1.46 HR/9 to LHB over the past three years.

Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Eric Thames, Hanley Ramirez

VALUE PLAY

Sam Travis, BOS ($2200)

I’m speculating a bit here, but some Red Sox and Yankees regulars will have to sit the first game today. If Hanley does, Sam Travis is a great punt at $2200. He has a 40% hard hit rate L10 and will have the platoon edge against CC Sabathia who has allowed a .363 wOBA to RHB the last three years.

Other options – Ryan Zimmerman, Tommy Joseph, Matt Holliday, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Gallo

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Altuve, HOU ($4300)

After a slow start, Altuve is having another MVP-caliber season and gets to attack Kyle Gibson (who would be the worst starter on the slate if not for Ubaldo). The Astros come in right behind the Cubs with an IRT of 5.5 runs, and Altuve offers massive power and speed upside.

Other options – Daniel Murphy, Matt Carpenter

VALUE PLAY

Jonathan Villar, MIL ($3100)

Villar is a fine cash option at $3100. He continues to lead off for the Brewers and people forget he had a combined 84 homers and steals last year. All of Jeremy Hellickson’s peripherals are pointing in the wrong direction and the Brewers’ IRT is 5.3 runs.

Other options – Brian Dozier, Rougned Odor, Logan Forsythe

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Kris Bryant, CHC ($3600)

Josh Donaldson is very enticing here as well, but Bryant is facing the worse pitcher and is $100 cheaper to boot. He has a .242 ISO against RHP in his young career and Ubaldo should get destroyed today.

Other options – Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Miguel Sano, Travis Shaw, Manny Machado, Justin Turner

VALUE PLAY

Todd Frazier, CHW ($3200)

Opportunity cost is sky high at a loaded 3B position today so you have to pay up for someone in cash. Frazier is my favorite GPP play as he always carries double dong upside and Andrew Moore was allowing a 41% FB rate in the minors before being called up. It’s also hot in Chicago today.

Other options – Maikel Franco, Kyle Seager, TJ Rivera

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Carlos Correa, HOU ($4200)

Correa continues to mash pitching with a 46% hard hit rate over his last 10 games and 44% over his last 15. He’s fully priced which means he’s tough to afford in cash, but he’s hitting so well right now and Kyle Gibson (a bad pitcher) is backed by a Twins bullpen that ranks 27th in xFIP.

Other options – Jean Segura

VALUE PLAY

Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($3300)

Check the Boston lineup first, but Bogaerts seems a but too cheap against a lefty that has really struggled with platoon numbers the last few years. Xander would hit third for the Sox and has a .396 wOBA against LHP the last three years (albeit with little power).

Other options – Elvis Andrus, Trevor Story, Wilmer Difo/Stephen Drew, Freddy Galvis

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Nelson Cruz, SEA ($4500)

Cruz has a .405 wOBA and .277 ISO against LHP the last three years and is facing Derek Holland who has allowed 1.55 HR/9 to RHB in that time. The kicker? Cruz also has almost a 50% hard hit rate L10. I’m prioritizing jamming him in there today.

Other options – Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, Mookei Betts, George Springer, Jose Bautista, JD Martinez, Domingo Santana, Brett Gardner

VALUE PLAY

Ben Zobrist/Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($2900/$2700)

Both these guys carry sub-3k prices on FD which is silly considering the matchup they have against Ubaldo. Zobrist should lead off and Schwarber will likely be fifth, and one of them needs to be a priority (I’m fine rostering both alongside Cruz as the other outfielder). Schwarber in particular has rediscovered his power stroke after his AAA demotion.

Other options – Josh Reddick, AJ Pollock, Justin Upton, Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Chris Young, Hernan Perez, Billy Hamilton, Ian Happ, Dexter Fowler, Mitch Haniger

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