After a stellar Friday night I had a down weekend thanks to some shoddy pitching by Yu Darvish and Steven Matz, so I’m kind of happy to see some new series start. We have no pitching over 10k which is good as we’ll need to fit in Coors bats, so let’s get started. I will be on chat this evening, and you can find me on twitter @jac3600.
Lance McCullers, HOU ($9100)
McCullers is the easy choice for cash games at this price tag, and there’s really no reason to even look any further. The matchup against Seattle isn’t the best, but McCullers is by far the biggest favorite on the slate at -215 and the Mariners have the lowest IRT at 3.7 runs. He has an elite 27% K rate and an absolutely ridiculous 63% GB rate. Lock him in tonight.
Other options – Jon Lester
Tom Koehler, MIA ($5700)
I don’t think I’ve ever written Koehler’s name in the four years I’ve been writing articles for FTA. He’s obviously not a cash play but I love him for GPPs at this price tag as he allows you to build a gaudy offense around him. He doesn’t have crazy K upside but he’s a -155 favorite and the Phillies rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP while striking out the fifth most against them.
Other options – Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Chad Kuhl, German Marquez
Gary Sanchez, NYY ($3400)
On a Coors slate you don’t necessarily need to pay full price for Sanchez, but he’s easily the best catcher on the slate as the Yankees take on Adalberto Mejia and the Twins. Mejia is allowing 1.52 HR/9 and Sanchez has a .365 wOBA and .293 ISO against LHP in his career.
Other options – Buster Posey, Salvador Perez
Evan Gattis, HOU ($2700)
Gattis is the cheap option if you don’t want to pay up for Sanchez. Houston once again has an IRT over five runs (5.3) and Gattis is facing Ariel Miranda who gets a big park downgrade and has allowed 1.81 HR/9 to RHB over the last two years.
Other options – Russell Martin, Welington Castillo, Jonathan Lucroy
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4100)
Rizzo slightly edges out the Coors options for the top first base bat as he takes on a struggling Julio Teheran in the heat of Atlanta. Rizzo has now homered in two straight games and Teheran has allowed a .365 wOBA and 1.42 HR/9 to LHB over the last three years. Like Gary Sanchez, I feel like Rizzo is more a GPP play, though.
Other options – Miguel Cabrera, Eric Thames, Wil Myers, Mark Reynolds
Chris Davis, BAL ($3000)
Chris Davis is far too cheap on FD and the BAL/TEX game is the “undercard” to Coors. Both teams have IRTs of 5.4 runs and Davis is facing Andrew Cashner who has struck out less than six batters per nine innings over the past three years. This is big for Davis as strikeouts are his biggest worry, and Davis has a .274 ISO against RHP the last three years.
Other options – Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Matt Holliday
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4400)
Altuve definitely does not fit the cash game strategy at a full price tag, but he’s raking right now and is facing a lousy lefty. Since the beginning of 2015, Altuve has posted a .415 wOBA and .190 ISO vs LHP and adds blazing speed to that floor.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu
Rougned Odor, TEX ($3200)
I like Odor a lot for cash play tonight. Chris Tillman has been absolutely brutal this year, posting a 7.90 ERA while allowing 2.02 HR/9. Odor has killed RHP in his young career and has a hard hit rate just under 40% over the last ten games. He’s too cheap for the upside he offers in this game.
Other options – Jonathan VIllar, Ian Kinsler, Dee Gordon, Starlin Castro, Josh Harrison
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4600)
We have a Coors slate and this is the first writeup of a Rockie, which tells you about the depth of offense tonight. The Rockies have by far the highest IRT on the slate at 6.2 runs, and Arenado has a .400 wOBA and .290 ISO at home over the last three years. Luis Perdomo is worse against LHB (which is why I prefer Blackmon if choosing one Rockie), but Arenado is easily worth every penny.
Other options – Miguel Sano, Adrian Beltre, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado
Mike Moustakas, KC ($3200)
Once again, opportunity cost is sky high at the 3B position so I suggest at least spending on the “other options” above for cash, but Moose Tacos is a fun alternative, especially for GPPs. He is having a career year in the power department, posting a .283 ISO with his 25 homers. The Royals have a sneaky IRT of 5.3 runs against Jordan Zimmermann who has allowed two homers per nine innings this year.
Other options – Evan Longoria, Nick Castellanos, Alex Bregman, Eduardo Nunez
Carlos Correa, HOU ($4200)
Like Altuve, Correa is a tough spend since you’d be bypassing Coors Field, but he is just killing the ball right now with a 47% hard hit rate L10, and will take on an inferior lefty in Ariel Miranda. Correa is having an MVP-caliber year and has a .264 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last season.
Other options – Trevor Story
Elvis Andrus, TEX ($3100)
Andrus is a bit too cheap tonight given the fact that he’s a top-15 fantasy player right now. Andrus has 31 combined homers and steals thus far this year and will hit second against Chris Tillman. The O’s righty is pretty good at controlling the basepaths but that’s all he can claim to be good at right now.
Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, Marcus Semien
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4800)
Even if you don’t punt positions, you can afford one big bat due to the cheap pricing on starting pitchers. I suggest you make Blackmon that big bat. Luis Perdomo is pitching in Coors and he’s allowing a career .377 wOBA and 1.39 HR/9 to LHB. Blackmon is a legit NL MVP candidate this year and is destroying right-handed pitching, especially at home.
Other options – Aaron Judge (best GPP pivot), Ryan Braun, George Springer, JD Martinez, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Manuel Margot, Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez, Raimel Tapia, Justin Upton
Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($2700)
The Schwarb is still underpriced on FD and you really should take advantage as every dollar counts when fitting in the top offenses tonight. Schwarber has been flashing nice power and hard contact since getting recalled, and gets the extreme splits of Julio Teheran.
Other options – Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Carlos Gomez, Adam Jones, Seth Smith, Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Dexter Fowler, Matt Kemp, Lorenxo Cain, Jorge Bonifacio