Happy Friday, and get ready for a full 15-game slate of baseball! Today is the kind of day I love where I am zeroed in on one pitcher and one pitcher alone, so the only “building” aspect will be the hitters. I will be helping all our loyal subs on FTA+ chat today, and you can find me on twitter @jac3600. Have fun tonight!
Rich Hill, LAD ($9300)
Hill should be the mega chalk tonight, and I do not advise deviating in cash. Hill has struck out eight or more batters in six of his last seven starts, including 11 recently against these same Padres. San Diego ranks dead last in wRC+ against LHP while also striking out the second most against them, and Hill is an unreal -340 favorite (I thought Kershaw was back!) with a 2.9 IRTA. Lock him into cash, and I’m not fading much in GPP either.
Other options – Jimmy Nelson, Carlos Carrasco
Mike Foltynewicz, ATL ($8100)
Folty is a tremendous GPP play tonight. I expect the Cardinals’ IRT of five runs will scare off a lot of people, but they generally put out a pretty right-handed lineup and Foltynewicz has very wide platoon splits (including a 28.7% K rate against RHB). Folty allows too many FBs, but his 8.65 K/9 is always usable in GPPs.
Other options – Jon Gray, Adam Wainwright, John Lackey, Eduardo Rodriguez, Reynaldo Lopez, Nick Pivetta
Buster Posey, SF ($3300)
The Giants are on the road, which means an automatic park upgrade. In this case, they’re traveling to Washington and facing Edwin Jackson who is the worst SP the Nats will throw out there. Jackson has struggled with power over the last few years, and it’s particularly evident this season as he’s allowed 2.45 HR/9 in seven appearances while posting a 5.31 xFIP. Posey is fairly priced, but I’d prefer even more savings in cash.
Other options – Gary Sanchez, Russell Martin
Alex Avila, CHC ($2300)
Avila strikes me as the most sensible cash play, as long as the Cubs give him a decent lineup spot (he hit fifth the last time he started which is just fine). Avila will take over as the Cubs everyday catcher with Willson Contreras hitting the DL, and he has an excellent 36% hard hit rate against RHP this year. Taijuan Walker is generally better on lefties, but the price is right on Avila and so is the park environment.
Other options – Brian McCann, Manny Pina, Austin Barnes, Victor Martinez
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4100)
Rizzo is more of a luxury tonight, but if you don’t want to chance Eric Thames’ cold streak (see below) I’m OK with paying up here. Rizzo gets a huge park upgrade going to Arizona and he has a .402 wOBA and .255 ISO against RHP the last two years. He also has over a 40% hard hit L10 as the Cubs lineup seems to be putting it all together.
Other options – Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Freddie Freeman, Ryan Zimmerman, Yuli Gurriel
Eric Thames, MIL ($2700)
I know it’s tough to stomach Thames’ cold streak when the 1B position carries so much production, but look at that price tag! Homer Bailey does not miss bats anymore and has allowed 1.48 HR/9. Thames has certainly seen a dip in production from the torrid first half he had, but he is still rocking a .270 ISO on the season and his high K rate is mitigated by both the price and his opponent.
Other options – Eric Hosmer, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Hanley Ramirez
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4100)
Today’s 2B slate is largely the same as yesterday, as I think you’re either paying up for Altuve or dropping all the way down to Neil Walker. Altuve is facing a tougher starter in Cole Hamels (who is coming off by far his best start of the year), but Altuve has elite platoon splits and Hamels’ K rate has plummeted this year (5.59 K/9)
Other options – Brian Dozier, Ian Kinsler, Jonathan Schoop, Daniel Murphy
Neil Walker, NYM ($2400)
Walker homered yesterday to provide nice value at his cheap price tag, and what’s more important is he hit second for the Bruce-less Mets. As long as he remains in the top five, he’s a phenomenal source of salary relief against Nick Pivetta who has allowed 1.82 HR/9.
Other options – Logan Forsythe, Rougned Odor, Joe Panik, Scooter Gennett
Miguel Sano, MIN ($3700)
Sano is the top option at a pretty loaded third base position tonight. He is facing Anibal Sanchez who has given up over 1.70 HR/9 to all batters over the past three years, and Sano has been a solid reverse-split hitter for his career with a .237 ISO. The Twins’ offense is hot right now (just swept the Brewers for a four-game series), and Sano is right in the middle of it.
Other options – Mike Moustakas, Alex Bregman, Kris Bryant, Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Jake Lamb
Travis Shaw, MIL ($3300)
Shaw is still way too cheap on FD at 3300 and is just fine in cash if you want to save a few bucks. Homer Bailey is someone you can fully attack tonight and Shaw is blasting RHP for a .400 wOBA and .261 ISO. The Brewers have an IRT of 5.2 runs, and Shaw has been hitting third lately.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Tyler Saladino, Pablo Sandoval
Eduardo Nunez, BOS ($3700)
It feels like Eduardo Nunez’s position on FanDuel changes every day. I think he is an elite GPP play against Jaime Garcia but I wouldn’t pay this price tag for cash thanks to the elite bullpen behind Garcia. For what it’s worth, Garcia has allowed a 29.7% hard hit rate to RHB this year which is the most in his career, and Nunez has power and speed.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Marwin Gonzalez
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3200)
I’m really hoping a decent punt opens up so I can spend less, but you can’t totally discount the A’s offense. Even in their spacious home park, Oakland has an IRT of 4.8 runs against Ubaldo Jimenez. The Orioles’ righty has actually strung together a couple of good starts in a row but still has a 4.70 xFIP and 1.94 HR/9 allowed. Semien is better against LHP but his hard hit rate is up the last ten games.
Other options – Paul DeJong, Freddy Galvis, Tim Anderson, Eduardo Escobar, Brandon Crawford
Mike Trout, LAA ($5100)
If you cheap out on the infield positions (which you can easily do), you can afford one big bat in the outfield. I’m not saying it has to be Trout (this price is tough), but he is the top overall play. Trout has insane numbers against LHP, has a 34% hard hit rate L10, and Trout has eight multi-hit games in his last 12.
Other options – Bryce Harper, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Judge, Khris Davis, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Ryan Braun, Michael Conforto, Justin Upton, George Springer, Adam Duvall, Chris Taylor, Billy Hamilton, Nomar Mazara
Yoenis Cespedes, NYM ($3400)
The Mets are actually my favorite stack since they fit the expensive pitching the best, and Yoenis is priced far too cheaply on FD. He’ll take on the homer-prone Nick Pivetta, and Ces has a .241 ISO against same-handed pitching over the last three years.
Other options – Shin Soo Choo, David Peralta, Starling Marte, Max Kepler, Kyle Schwarber, Curtis Granderson, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Jim Adduci, Denard Span, Cameron Maybin, Jarrett Parker, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Alex Gordon, Avisail Garcia, Bradley Zimmer