FanDuel DFS NBA | Saturday 11/11/17


Last night was absolutely torturous, as my cash lineups finished less than a point out of the money in almost all my double ups. This has been the trend this week, as I’ve been either just in or just out of it.  Tonight we have a full 11 games to tackle, and some very diverse ways to go as of right now.  I will be on chat around 6 PM EST helping our FTA+ subs build lineups, and you can follow me on twitter @jac3600.

 

POINT GUARD

TOP PLAY

Stephen Curry, GS ($9500)

The top PGs all come with blowout risk this evening, but Curry’s price is down enough that he can be strongly considered for all formats.  The Warriors and Sixers are both playing at an incredibly high pace and Golden State has the highest IPT at 122 points. Philly ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency against PGs and has allowed the highest 3PT% so far this year, so any blowout would likely be at the hands of Curry.  If Kevin Durant sits, Curry would rank as a must play in my eyes, and is a good one regardless.

Other options – John Wall

Mid-tier options – Dennis Schroder, Jeff Teague, Lonzo Ball

 

VALUE PLAY

Mike James, PHX ($5600)

James is still in a platoon situation with Tyler Ulis so the upside is limited for GPPs, but he’s a fine cash target with his static price tag.  Minnesota has been horrific against PGs, ranking 29th against the position while also ranking 24th in overall defensive efficiency.  Eric Bledsoe is out of town now so there’s no worry of him ever eating into the PG time again, and James routinely gets to value at his price tag.

Other options – Dennis Smith, DeAaron Fox, TJ McConnell, Patty Mills, Spencer Dinwiddie, JJ Barea, Frank Ntilikina

 

SHOOTING GUARD

TOP PLAY

James Harden, HOU ($11,800)

The SG position should be your one-stop shopping trip for value tonight.  Harden has had by far his two worst games against Memphis this year due to their slow pace and funnel defense, and is just priced completely out of cash.  He showed his 80-point upside last game, so feel free to give him a try in GPPs.

Other options – None

Mid-tier options – Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, D’Angelo Russell, Klay Thompson, Tyreke Evans, Andrew Wiggins

 

VALUE PLAY

Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($5500)

Mitchell’s FG% can be scary for DFS because if he’s cold he’s not helping you, but I’m locking him (and another cheap SG) in cash tonight.  The rookie has a 28.7% usage rate for Utah this year and is now starting which should keep his minutes in the 30s.  He has a dream matchup against the Nets who rank first in pace, last in overall defensive efficiency, and 24th against guards (Mitchell is getting PG minutes as well which could help his assist totals).

Other options – Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, Rodney Hood, Kris Dunn, JR Smith, Iman Shumpert

 

SMALL FORWARD

TOP PLAY

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($12,200)

I think we can safely say Eric Bledsoe will not affect Giannis’ rates, as the Greek Freak put up 63.9 points on FD last night in a tough, slow matchup against the Spurs (and that’s with Bledsoe having a good game too!).  Tonight Giannis gets the pleasure of playing the Lakers who are once again playing at a super high pace and rank 22nd in overall defensive efficiency.  His price is difficult, but FD’s looser system makes it manageable if you’re willing to eat a bit of money at other spots.

Other options – LeBron James, Kevin Durant

Mid-tier options – Jimmy Butler, TJ Warren, Harrison Barnes

 

VALUE PLAY

Taurean Prince, ATL ($5700)

I’d like to go back to the Wesley Johnson well here, but his usage is just too inconsistent for my taste in cash games (maybe if he was under 4k).  Prince has been logging nice minutes for the rebuilding Hawks and has posted a very usable 18.8% true usage rate. His UR and RR have taken slight steps forward with Atlanta’s frontcourt thin, and Atlanta is currently ranked dead last in defensive efficiency against SFs (they consistently struggle with wing defense from year to year).

Other options – Brandon Ingram, Joe Ingles, DeMarre Carroll, Wesley Johnson, Jonathan Simmons, Josh Jackson

 

POWER FORWARD

TOP PLAY

Blake Griffin, LAC ($8500)

I like Anthony Davis better, but he’s 3k more than Griffin and Cousins is the one I want tonight of the New Orleans duo.  Griffin’s percentages have been keeping his DFS scores modest, but his price has accounted for that and his rates took a step forward last night as he played 40 minutes against the Thunder (Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverley are still out).  Foul risk is always an issue against these New Orleans bigs, but that goes both ways and Griffin himself can cause havoc.  The Pelicans are a fast-paced team and rank 17th in defensive efficiency against PFs.

Other options – Anthony Davis, Ben Simmons, Kristaps Porzingis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Draymond Green

Mid-tier options – Aaron Gordon, Paul Millsap, Otto Porter

 

VALUE PLAY

John Collins, ATL ($5200)

I wish I could guarantee more than 30 minutes for Collins, but it just won’t happen, as he’s topped out at 28 with Luke Babbitt and Dewayne Dedmon also playing fairly well for the Atlanta frontcourt.  That said, Collins is still an attractive DFS target as he’s averaging 1.21 FD PPM off the bench and has has crushed his value tag in three of the last four games.  Tonight he gets a Wizards team that ranks 26th in rebounding rate, and Collins is likely safe from blowout risk.

Other options – Kyle Kuzma, Julius Randle, Zack Randolph, John Henson, Derrick Favors, Dario Saric, Ryan Anderson

 

CENTER

TOP PLAY

DeMarcus Cousins, NO ($11,800)

Alex Len is staring you in the face again if you want to go cheap at center, but I’m targeting Boogie tonight as a big spend for cash. The Clippers rank 22nd in defensive efficiency against centers and 20th in rebounding rate, and Cousins has an elite 29% true usage rate along with a 19% RR and 23% AR.  He’s playing 38.3 MPG and his 58.8 FanDuel PPG dwarfs the other centers on this slate.

Other options – Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert

Mid-tier options – Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Kevin Love, Enes Kanter

 

VALUE PLAY

Alex Len, PHX ($4400)

Len is one of the most polarizing DFS figures in the game.  After his 5.6-point foul-plagued outing against the Heat, Len responded with smart basketball and 40 (!) minutes of DFS heaven against the Magic (41.1 FD points).  This is him in a nutshell, guys.  If you’re willing to accept the foul risk (and it’s there again tonight against KAT), he’s an elite DFS producer, and he’s the top overall value tonight.  Just bear in mind that he’s by no means safe.

Other options – Brook Lopez, Paul Gasol, Marcin Gortat, Kyle O’Quinn

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