FanDuel DFS NBA Picks | 12/5/18

Well, we learned a hard lesson of how bad the Suns really are yesterday, so tread carefully in future games.  I still survived on FanDuel, but DK and Yahoo were not meant to be.  Tonight we have a jam packed Wednesday, and not a whole lot of value to be found yet.  Chat and projections will tell the full story later, so make sure you join our illustrious crew tonight.  I may not be there, but I can be found on twitter @jac3600.  Good luck!   POINT GUARD TOP PLAY John Wall, WAS ($9400) The fact that value is lacking thus far is troubling, because there are a lot of high priced players we want to target.  Westbrook is king of the PG position, but Wall seems like the logical top choice at a $1600 discount.  Washington has the highest implied total on the slate despite recent shoddy play, and it’s largely due to the fact that Atlanta is ranked first in pace and 23rd in overall defensive efficiency.  Trae Young stands no shot of defending Wall, as evidenced by their 29th ranking against PGs, and Wall is still a top-15 usage play. Other options – Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Ben Simmons Mid-tier options – Kyle Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, Jamal Murray, Trae Young   VALUE PLAY George Hill, CLE ($4100) Hill is the prime value at the time, and he’s someone you’re going to want to lock into cash builds.  Hill was supposed to remain on a 20-minute limit last game but apparently that was thrown out the window as he logged 35 minutes in an overtime contest.  Even if Hill approaches 30 minutes he should pay off such a cheap tag, which is important on this slate.  Golden State’s defensive ranking has plummeted from fourth to 15th since Draymond Green went down, and the Warriors rank 26th against PGs.  Cleveland is also getting a healthy pace boost, and Golden State’s pace ranking will go up since Curry is back. Other options – Derrick Rose, Tim Frazier, Derrick White, Tomas Satoransky   SHOOTING GUARD TOP PLAY Bradley Beal, WAS ($8500) Wall is my preferred play of the two Wizards big guns, but Beal is certainly in play at an absolutely garbage SG position.  The Hawks rank 25th against SGs among their other defensive inefficiencies.  Beal is playing monster minutes (over 40 in three of his last six games) and Atlanta has also allowed the third highest 3PT% in the league.  If you can fit Beal he’s fine in cash, but you should spend more for the top tier studs where possible. Other options – DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday Mid-tier options – Khris Middleton, Luka Doncic, Jeremy Lamb   VALUE PLAY Alec Burks, CLE ($4100) Considering how bad shooting guard is, it makes sense to totally punt at least one of the spots.  Enter Burks, who has averaged 26 MPG since coming over to the Cavs and hitting value in all but one of the games.  Burks isn’t just playing garbage time either, as he played down the stretch in a close game against Nets (and ultimately wound up hitting the game-winner).  Golden State’s bench has allowed the ninth most FPPG this season. Other options – Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Clarkson, JJ Redick, Evan Fournier, Pat Connaughton   SMALL FORWARD TOP PLAY LeBron James, LAL ($10,700) Dare I say the Spurs…stink?  They just allowed the slow-paced Jazz who rank 20th in offensive efficiency drop 139 points on them, and it marks the fourth time in six games that they’ve allowed 128 points or more.  On the season, San Antonio ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and also rank 28th against opposing wings.  LeBron’s upside hasn’t been consistently realized, but blowouts have played a big part in that.  He’s got a 33.5% usage rate over his last ten games, which is the highest he’s been all year, and the Spurs have no real option to defend him. Other options – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George Mid-tier options – Otto Porter, Robert Covington, Brandon Ingram   VALUE PLAY Cedi Osman/Rodney Hood, CLE ($4900/$4800) Cavs values continue.  Osman and Hood should both see minutes into the 30s, which is important even though the usage is inconsistent.  Hood has played 34 or more minutes in four of his last five games, which is good enough for a cash value.  I’d be careful rostering more than two Cavs in cash, but we’re going to need value and no other team is offering as much at this moment.  Golden State should blow out Cleveland so be careful with these two players, but the Warriors also rank 19th against SFs. Other options – Rudy Gay, DeAndre Bembry, Jonathan Isaac, Stanley Johnson   POWER FORWARD TOP PLAY Anthony Davis, NO ($12,800) I don’t think Davis is as much a priority tonight as he usually is, but you will never get an argument from me if you pay up for him.  Dallas isn’t the optimal matchup as they’re seventh in overall team defense and 13th against centers, but Davis is averaging a whopping 1.63 FPPM and is over 62 FD points in four of his last five games.  No player in the league has his nightly upside. Other options – Blake Griffin Mid-tier options – LaMarcus Aldridge, John Collins, Aaron Gordon, Pascal Siakam   VALUE PLAY Frank Kaminsky, CHA ($3900) Frank the Tank is back!  With Marvin Williams on the shelf (surprised it took this long honestly), Frank is in line for more minutes and may even draw the start.  Even if he doesn’t, he’s a beautiful FD punt as he played 25 minutes when Williams went down last game and put up 25.5 FD points (he needs 20 for value).  Minnesota ranks 22nd against PFs and 17th in overall team defense (oddly, they’re rising since Butler left). Other options – Serge Ibaka, Markieff Morris, Jerami Grant, JaMychal Green   CENTER TOP PLAY Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9400) Embiid is usually the default center, but Toronto’s top defensive ranking against opposing centers is enough to get me to at least call him “not the biggest priority on the high end” (or something thereof).  Towns has a stellar 27% UR, 19% RR, and 12% AR with Butler out of town, and Charlotte ranks 18th against opposing centers and 17th in rebounding rate.  The lack of Marvin Williams will also greatly diminish the Hornets frontcourt defense, and Cody Zeller is banged up as well (what else is new). Other options – Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Andre Drummond Mid-tier options – Tristan Thompson, Steven Adams, Julius Randle   VALUE PLAY Kevon Looney, GS ($4800) Looney’s price has risen over $1000 since last game, but it’s still not enough for what he’s giving the Warriors right now.  Draymond Green remains out and Damion Jones is now lost for the year for Golden State, and Looney crushed it for 37.3 FD points over a season-high 28 minutes last game.  If he gets anywhere near that number again, he’s a great cash value which would allow you to spend on two studs and also minimize your “Cavaliers values” in cash).  Cleveland does rank eighth against centers, but they’re 28th in overall team defense and 28th in rebounding rate.  There’s all sorts of room for upside here. Other options – Jarrett Allen, Cody Zeller, Thomas Bryant   Fantasy Basketball

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