It’s gonna be a fun one tonight, as there are no 10k+ players on the slate which should eliminate a bit of the “punting” aspect on FD. There are some interesting games to target, and we at FTA+ are happy to help you navigate the noise. Our projections will be constantly updated as news comes in, and join us in chat all day and night. I can also be followed on twitter @jac3600.
Damian Lillard, POR ($9900)
Lillard is appropriately priced but on a slate where there’s already value you can make the argument for paying up since he’s not difficult to fit. Dallas doesn’t offer the best DFS matchup (12th in overall team defense, 7th against PGs) but Lillard has maintained such a high level of play this year while rocking a 31.4% usage rate (12th in the NBA). With a likely competitive game, it’s easy to see Lillard getting 40 minutes. He’s easy to roster on FD, so there’s nothing at all wrong with simply trying to chase the highest raw score.
Other options – None
Mid-tier options – DeAaron Fox, Ricky Rubio
Elie Okobo, PHX ($4700)
The Suns are without Devin Booker and likely TJ Warren as well, which means 32.5 shots per game and almost 50% of the team’s usage have to be trickled down to the supporting cash. Okobo has played 30 minutes per game off the bench over the last three and SHOULD theoretically draw the start tonight. The Kings are a great matchup as they’re unlikely to blow out the Suns, and they rank second in pace and 19th against opposing PGs.
Other options – Ryan Arcidiacono, Derrick White, Cory Joseph
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Buddy Hield, SAC ($6000)
With Oladipo and Booker on the shelf, the SG pool looks REALLY thin up top. The other top guys will cede usage to their teammates lately, so it’s best to look cheaper. Buddy Hield is vastly underpriced on FD and I even think he has the ability and matchup to be the highest scorer at SG from a raw total perspective. Hield is shooting the lights out from downtown (41% 3PT%) and Phoenix allows the second highest percentage from long range. They also rank 29th in overall team defense and 22nd against SGs. This is a game you want to heavily target.
Other options – Zack LaVine, Donovan Mitchell, Luka Doncic, CJ McCollum, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Evan Fournier, Iman Shumpert
Josh Richardson is the highest priced option and I don’t feel like paying for him. He’s GPP viable, but don’t go nuts here.
Trevor Ariza/Mikal Bridges, PHX ($5600/$4300)
You can use either or both of these guys in cash as they’ll be in line for extra minutes with Booker and Warren out. Bridges has not done much in the way of usage this year but Phoenix is committed to developing him and he should be a lock for 30+ minutes. I wish Ariza was cheaper, but Sacramento allows the third most turnovers this year. Ariza is still a steals monster, with 14 over his last six games.
Other options – Tyreke Evans, Bojan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gay, Evan Turner, Nemanja Bjelica
Damontas Sabonis, IND ($7700)
It boggles my mind that Sabonis doesn’t get more minutes (he’s only cleared 30 three times the whole season), but his 1.31 FPPM (1.46 with Oladipo off the court) makes him an incredibly high upside play. The Bulls are the perfect matchup for him as they rank 20th in overall team defense, 23rd against PFs, and allow the fifth most bench points. On a short slate, he’s a solid play in all formats despite being somewhat aggressively priced.
Other options – LaMarcus Aldridge
Mid-tier options – Aaron Gordon, Marvin Bagley
Josh Jackson, PHX ($5600)
I may very well have four Suns in cash tonight (I’m still not done after Jackson), but Josh Jackson is the lock of the bunch. Last year with Booker and Warren off the court, Jackson saw an 8% usage bump which is rather staggering, and he led the team in shots last game after Booker went down. The Phoenix offense should run through Jackson, which is not going to do the Suns any favors but will really be good for us DFS players. Lock him in for cash, and I have a tough time even endorsing a GPP fade.
Other options – Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter, Derrick Favors, Thaddeus Young, Bam Adebayo
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
DeAndre Ayton, PHX ($6800)
I hate to cheat you guys out of multiple plays in this article, but there are only five games and I want to point out the “locks” on this slate. Ayton is one of them at his price tag, as he sees his usage spike to 22% and his assist rate go up to 14% with Booker off the court. In the small sample size TJ Warren has sat, Ayton’s rebounding rate rose to 18% and he’s facing a Kings squad that ranks 26th against centers and 24th in rebounding rate. As I said, four Suns in cash looks like a real possibility for me, but make sure Jackson and Ayton are priorities.
Other options – Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, Willie Cauley-Stein, Myles Turner, Kosta Koufos