FanDuel DFS NBA Picks | 12/3/18

Anthony Davis dunks a basketball for the New Orleans Pelicans

I hope everyone had a profitable day yesterday in the NFL.  The FTA+ crew lit it up once again and we’re going right back to basketball tonight.  It’s a day where you have to play Anthony Davis no matter the cost, so value hunting is going to be the name of the game.  Remember, FD’s “burner” play allows you the ability to get two studs into your lineup, so choose wisely.  I will be in chat helping all our subs out, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.  Good luck!   POINT GUARD TOP PLAY Stephen Curry, GS ($9700) Curry returned from his 11-game absence last game and didn’t look any worse for the wear as he posted 36.5 FD points in 36 minutes.  The key takeaway here is that he’s not restricted in the least, and gets to face the Hawks tonight who play at the fastest pace and rank 29th in defensive efficiency against PGs.  Trae Young is going to look like a joke trying to guard Curry, and the Warriors come in with the highest implied total on the slate (123 points).  There’s blowout risk, of course, but Curry is not priced at the level he was playing at before getting hurt. Other options – Russell Westbrook, John Wall Mid-tier options – Kyle Lowry, Jamal Murray   VALUE PLAY Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN ($6300) Dinwiddie has actually lost usage since joining the starting lineup, but his assist rate has skyrocketed to 36% and he’s still priced under the average roster cost.  He played 42 and 28 minutes in his two starts, and now gets the Cavs who rank dead last in overall defensive efficiency (and not really close) and 26th against PGs.  Even if Dinwiddie were to return to the bench, his usage would go back up to its previous rate, and Cavs allow the most bench points in the league.  Dinwiddie is a fine play in all formats at his price. Other options – Collin Sexton, Tim Frazier, Emmanuel Mudiay, Jeremy Lin, Tomas Satoransky   SHOOTING GUARD TOP PLAY Jrue Holiday, NO ($9200) Jrue is borderline “appropriately priced” now, but he continues to play heavy minutes and maintain one of the highest cash floors in the game.  Jrue’s assist rate has taken a slight dip with Tim Frazier joining him in the starting lineup the last two games, but he’s still rocking a 27% UR and 32% AR with Elfrid Payton out.  The LAC/NO game is the marquee one to target with a two-point spread and a 238 O/U, and the Clippers rank 17th against opposing guards. Other options – James Harden Mid-tier options – Bradley Beal, Tim Hardaway, D’Angelo Russell, Klay Thompson   VALUE PLAY Allonzo Trier, NY ($3900) It’s virtually impossible to trust any Knicks in DFS, but Trier is a great option for the “burner” play tonight.  His minutes are all over the place lately (34, 22, 30, 21, 17 the last five games), but I think it’s reasonably safe to pencil him in for 25 tonight with Trey Burke already ruled out, and Trier is averaging 0.82 FPPM off the bench for the Knicks.  Washington ranks sixth in pace and 26th in overall team defense, so this is a solid matchup with upside for a meager price tag.  I’m good with him as an SG2 punt. Other options – Andrew Wiggins, Lou Williams, Reggie Bullock, Kevin Huerter, Damyean Dotson   SMALL FORWARD TOP PLAY Kawhi Leonard, TOR ($10,400) There’s not much value to be found at the top end of the SF position, so I’d look to save money here.  Kawhi still rates very highly despite a rather tough matchup with Denver (fourth in overall team defense, 11th against SFs).  Over the past five games, he’s averaging over 50 FD PPG while taking 20 or more shots in four of those games (including 33 total three-pointers attempted).  He’s also logging defensive stats every game and has taken over as the main usage player in Toronto.  I’d restrict my usage to GPPs here, but Kawhi’s floor/ceiling combo is sky high. Other options – Kevin Durant, Paul George Mid-tier options – Nikola Mirotic, Danilo Gallinari, Gary Harris   VALUE PLAY Kelly Oubre/Jeff Green, WAS ($4300/$4100) Washington is your source for cheap SFs tonight even though the minutes could be a little shaky to predict if all the wings are healthy.  Jeff Green sat out Saturday and is a GTD tonight, so Oubre will become a must play if Green sits.  If Green plays, both Wizards are usable as punt options at a thin position.  Both have been routinely getting minutes into the 20s (with upside into the 30s) and the Knicks have allowed by FAR the most FPPG to opposing SFs this year.  Washington checks in with a healthy 115.5 team total, so there should be a lot of scoring to go around. Other options – Taurean Prince, Rodney Hood, Cedi Osman   POWER FORWARD TOP PLAY Anthony Davis, NO ($12,700) Do not fade Davis tonight.  I understand the argument about the pricing of other studs compared to him (Westbrook is $1300 cheaper and Stephen Curry is a whopping $3000 less), but NO ONE, I repeat, NO ONE has near the upside of Davis tonight.  He’s been absolutely incredible lately, going over 60 FD points in eight of his last 11 games and over 70 in three of them (including a 78.8-point masterpiece yesterday afternoon).  The Clippers rank 21st against PFs and 23rd against centers, and simply have no answer for AD’s game defensively (Harrell is the only one athletic enough to keep up with him, and he’s massively undersized).  In close games (which this is expected to be), Davis usually sees upwards of 40 minutes, and he’s going to go absolutely batty tonight.  DO. NOT. FADE. IN. CASH. Other options – Blake Griffin, Tobias Harris Mid-tier options – John Collins, Markieff Morris, Pascal Siakam   VALUE PLAY Serge Ibaka, TOR ($6000) Serge has bust potential in a tough matchup with Denver (fourth against PFs, sixth against centers), but he’s played 31, 36, and 35 minutes in his last three games and should see the same tonight as long as he stays out of foul trouble if he’s on Jokic.  Ibaka’s size is going to be vital for Toronto in this game, and we’ve seen a little bit of a renaissance with his former blocking upside (he has seven swats in his last five games).  He’s too cheap, and can be played in any format (although he’s a better cash play). Other options – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Noah Vonleh, Taj Gibson, Jonas Jerebko   CENTER TOP PLAY Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9400) Towns is still priced to low for life without Jimmy Butler which puts him in the cash conversation every night, but I’d rather save a little bit of money at center this evening.  Houston ranks 19th against centers and 21st in rebounding rate, and Towns is enjoying quite a series of rate boosts since Butler left (26% UR, 19% RR, 11% AR).  The HOU/MIN game is one that could fly under the radar but has the potential to be very high scoring as neither team plays much defense (even though both have slowed their pace this year).  Towns is an elite GPP option and cash viable if you have the funds. Other options – Andre Drummond, Nikola Jokic, Clint Capela Mid-tier options – Enes Kanter, Julius Randle, Tristan Thompson   VALUE PLAY Tristan Thompson, CLE ($6700) Repeat after me: Play centers against the Nets, play centers against the Nets, play centers against the Nets… Has it sunk in yet?  Good, because Thompson is also too cheap which makes his all the more of an enticing play.  Brooklyn has allowed 18% more scoring and 22% more rebounding to the center position than any other team in the NBA this year, and Thompson has six double-doubles in his last seven games while averaging 36.7 MPG in that span.  I would honestly consider paying close to 8k for him tonight, and FD has given us a gift.  He’s a core option for me as of now. Other options – Jarrett Allen, Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell Fantasy Basketball

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