I hope everyone had a blessed and relaxing (and profitable) Christmas Day yesterday. I personally ignored FanDuel (no late swap on a day like that is dumb) but will be back in action on all three sites this evening. We have ten games, and the last game of the night (LAC-SAC) looks like an amazing place to start. I’ll see all our FTA+ subs in chat tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
DeAaron Fox, SAC ($8200)
This game is going to be featured tonight with a four-point spread and a whopping 240 O/U. Fox has been unreal lately, averaging 48.5 FD PPG over his last five (if we throw out the debacle where all Kings starters were benched), and has almost a 35% usage rate in that span. These two teams are both top ten in pace and the Clips allow the sixth most FPPG to opposing PGs. Fox would seem to be priced correctly, but in reality he’s actually a value given his recent rate spikes.
Other options – Kemba Walker, John Wall, Mike Conley
Mid-tier options – Kris Dunn, Derrick Rose, Spencer Dinwiddie
Darren Collison, IND ($4500)
Collison’s value was really only there when Victor Oladipo was out, but tonight I’m fine rolling him out anyway (more on Oladipo shortly, by the way). Collison needs about 22 points to hit value, a feat he’s achieved 50% of the time since Dipo came back. This doesn’t offer a supreme vote of confidence, but here’s something that should: This season, the Hawks have allowed an incredible FIFTY FanDuel PPG to opposing PGs, by far the most in the league. Collison’s price is super friendly, and allows you to get some studs in there.
Other options – Reggie Jackson, Collin Sexton, DJ Augustin, Cory Joseph, Tyus Jones (depending on Rose)
Victor Oladipo, IND ($8500)
Oladipo at this price tag is a thing of beauty, as he’s worth $1000 more in this matchup. The Hawks rank dead last in overall defensive efficiency and allow by far the most FPPG to opposing guards, and Dipo’s ceiling is limitless tonight. Atlanta has also allowed the most assists and given up the second highest 3PT%, which means Dipo has all sorts of outs to achieve his floor and beyond. His usage has dipped a bit lately, but he’s still top-25 with a 28.8% rate. On a night where Anthony Davis is really the only super-priced stud, Oladipo is someone I want to prioritize.
Other options – Jrue Holiday, DeMar DeRozan, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker
Mid-tier options – Buddy Hield, D’Angelo Russell
Lou Williams, LAC ($5400)
The Clippers’ offense is a totally different animal with Lou back. Since he returned, they’ve scored 128 PPG while averaging 104.3 PPG over the previous four while Lou was out. The Kings have some offensive swagger right now too, so we should see some serious scoring fireworks in this game. Sacramento ranks second in pace, 28th against SGs, and allows the fifth most bench points in the league. The Clips have the highest implied total by far (122 points), and Sweet Lou is a nice way to get cheap exposure to a game from which you want multiple pieces.
Other options – Jordan Clarkson, Alec Burks, Evan Fournier, Justin Holiday, Josh Okogie
Kawhi Leonard, TOR ($10,400)
If I’m spending in the five-digit range for cash, I’m going all the way up to Anthony Davis, but Kawhi looks like an awesome GPP option at very low ownership. Miami can be a frustrating opponent, as they’re a neutral pace team (so is Toronto) and rank second against opposing SFs, but Kawhi has already dropped 52 FD points on them once this year. I’ll have GPP exposure for sure, but I just don’t see the need in cash.
Other options – None
Mid-tier options – Josh Richardson, Danilo Gallinari
Nemanja Bjelica, SAC ($5300)
There are a lot of “good but not great” SFs in this 5k-6k range on FanDuel. None really jump off the page, so we’ll go with the same idea for choosing – when in doubt, go with the top game environment on the slate. Since the “benching” game where Bjelica was a chalk bust, he’s played 22, 35, and 29 minutes and hit value in the last two contests. The Clippers rank 26th against SFs, and Bjelica’s price tag won’t hurt you.
Other options – Trevor Ariza, Jeff Green, Rudy Gay, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Harris
Anthony Davis, NO ($12,500)
Davis laps the field as far as expected production goes, but the price tag accompanies that as well. On a night where you really don’t have to choose which stud is “best”, it makes sense to shoot for AD. There are several solid “high second-tier” options you can build around too if you choose to fade, but none of them have AD’s nightly upside (and it’s not really close). Dallas is not the best defensive matchup (12th against centers, ninth in rebounding rate), but this is a guy who’s been over 60 FD points in nine of his last 12 games. The last time against these Mavericks, he put up 64.3. I’ll take it, and by the way, Nikola Mirotic is out again.
Other options – Blake Griffin, Tobias Harris
Mid-tier options – Montrezl Harrell, Lauri Markkanen, Aaron Gordon, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka
Rodions Kurucs, BKN ($4000)
If you have aspirations of rostering Davis in cash alongside potentially two secondary high-priced guys in the 8k-9k range, you’ll need a bit of salary relief. Kurucs is fine for this purpose with Allen Crabbe already ruled out. In his last two games, Kurucs has played 34 and 32 minutes and crushed value in both (with a double-double against Phoenix last time out). Given his level of play, it would seem like a full workload is on tap once again. Charlotte ranks 21st against opposing PFs and 24th in rebounding rate and is generally undersized.
Other options – Damontas Sabonis, Thaddeus Young, Wendell Carter, JaMychal Green, Ed Davis
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9100)
My initial plan is to build an expensive core of Davis/Oladipo/Towns. If this is unattainable, it’s really going to be a tough decision whether Towns or Oladipo is more valuable as AD’s sidekick. Towns should go ballistic tonight against the Bulls who rank 28th against centers, 29th in rebounding rate, and allow the most FPPG per 48 minutes to the position. Towns’ rates are soaring without Jimmy Butler in Minnesota, and his floor would seem to be in the upper 40s and above tonight.
Other options – Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Andre Drummond, Julius Randle
Mid-tier options – DeAndre Jordan, Myles Turner, Willie Cauley-Stein
Mason Plumlee, DEN ($6300)
The value choice was very close for me between Plumlee and Jarrett Allen, but Plumlee’s minutes have actually been a touch more secure lately, and he’s hit value on FanDuel in five straight contests even with Jokic soaking up the majority of Paul Millsap’s abandoned rates. San Antonio’s defense is finally improving, but they’re still 16th in defensive efficiency and 17th in rebounding rate. Plumlee is averaging 1.14 FD points per minute this season and makes for a great differentiation play in GPPs.
Other options – Jarrett Allen, Dewayne Dedmon, Alex Len, Cody ZellerFantasy Basketball