FanDuel DFS NBA Picks | 11/27/18

Nikola Jokic boxing out Javale McGee

Last night was possibly the biggest night in FTA history, as our own subscriber “montesdabeast” took down the big $10 GPP on DraftKings, winning himself a life-changing $100,000.  A big assist goes to our own Thor for leading him on the path (Thor had a big night), and I myself had a modest day with a 338 cash lineup.  If you’re not with us, you’re behind the 8-ball, as we feature cutting edge projection systems, optimizers, and live chat all day every day.  There are five games tonight, so let’s get going!  I can be found on twitter @jac3600.   POINT GUARD TOP PLAY Jamal Murray, DEN ($7300) Tonight is going to be interesting as there are not many players priced over 10k, and some aren’t even the top play at his own position.  This will lead us to see some different names at the top, starting with Mr. Murray.  Even if Gary Harris returns, Murray is still usable in all formats against the Lakers who are great attack point for PGs.  They rank fifth in pace and have allowed the most FPPG to PGs along with the second most assists, and Murray has averaged 37 MPG over the last four games (with Harris playing in three of them).  Murray has already dropped 38.5 FD points on the Lakers once this year while not even shooting well, so the upside is through the roof here. Other options – Mike Conley Mid-tier options – Kyle Lowry, Lonzo Ball   VALUE PLAY Darren Collison, IND ($4900) Victor Oladipo has already been ruled out for tonight’s contest which gives his teammates a nice boost in a great matchup against Phoenix.  Collison has yet to top 26 minutes in any of the four games Oladipo has missed but the argument can be made that a lot of that is attributed to blowouts (Indiana has lost by 28, 18, 11, and 33 points without Dipo, and Collison has barely played in the fourth quarter).  If you assume a closer game tonight, Collison should get up to 30 minutes and the Suns rank dead last in overall defensive efficiency and 29th against PGs. Other options – Cory Joseph, Jeremy Lin, Ish Smith   SHOOTING GUARD TOP PLAY Devin Booker, PHX ($8500) Shooting guard is a mess so you’re not wasting your money on Booker for cash in a tough matchup (Indiana is fourth against opposing guards).  However, Booker has only played under 35 minutes twice since returning from injury on 11/2 and he has the upside to win you a GPP on any given night (over 45 FD points in three of his last four games, and 50+ in two of them).  Booker is an elite GPP option. Other options – None Mid-tier options – Tim Hardaway   VALUE PLAY Rodney McGruder, MIA ($4900) The Heat wings is where we should be value hunting for cash tonight as they’ll all see considerable run again with Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson out.  I’m comfortable using two of McGruder/Wade/Ellington for cash but if you have to pick one McGruder is the most stable choice.  He’s cleared 30 minutes in six straight games now and has posted a healthy (for a guard) 9% rebounding rate over those six contests.  He’ll get an immense pace boost against the Hawks (they rank first), and Atlanta is also 24th against opposing SGs. Other options – Dwayne Wade, Wayne Ellington, Monte Morris, Allonzo Trier, Langston Galloway   SMALL FORWARD TOP PLAY LeBron James, LAL ($11,200) I admit I’m not sure how I’m going to approach LeBron tonight.  I assume him to be chalk as really the only elite stud on the board, but it bears mentioning that he’s only delivered value twice in his last five games (and fallen WAY short in two of the other ones).  LeBron is still arguably the best player in basketball and is tenth in the league in usage rate and fifth in PER, but he’s ceded some of his gaudy rates to his teammates in L.A.  Denver will also likely match him up with Paul Millsap (which is tough), but if you want to pay up for the likely chalk play I don’t fault you (and I may do it too). Other options – Kawhi Leonard Mid-tier options – Josh Richardson, Gary Harris, TJ Warren   VALUE PLAY Trevor Ariza, PHX ($4800) You can dabble into the IND SFs to try and guess which of Tyreke or Bojan is better, but I want to take a minute to point out the (seemingly) ageless Trevor Ariza.  After missing a few games, he’s quietly logged 41, 36, 40, and 36 minutes over his last four while crushing value in two of them.  He still has the ability to force turnovers (eight steals over his last four games) which plays well to FD’s scoring baselines, and his price tag really won’t kill you for some pretty friggin’ stable minutes.  Indiana also rates 29th in DRPM against SFs this year. Other options – Tyreke Evans, Bojan Bogdanovic, Justise Winslow, Mikal Bridges   POWER FORWARD TOP PLAY Blake Griffin, DET ($9800) Griffin blows away the field at the power forward position, and it looks like it might be a smart move to pay for him in cash given the lack of depth at PF (part of the reason I MAY be OK fading LeBron is if I get a Griffin/Jokic core in cash).  The Knicks will have no answer for Blake tonight, as he’ll either be matchup up with Noah Vonleh (fouling machine), Kevin Knox (undersized, rookie), or Enes Kanter (laughably bad defender).  The Knicks rank 27th in defensive efficiency and 27th against PFs, and Griffin is posting an elite 29.1% usage rate and 25.6% defensive rebounding rate (and that’s with rebounding machine Drummond alongside him every step of the way). Other options – None Mid-tier options – Damontas Sabonis, John Collins, Paul Millsap, Brandon Ingram   VALUE PLAY JaMychal Green, MEM ($4300) Green’s minutes are a bit tough to predict, as he’s gone 18, 33, and 19 over the last three.  However, the price mitigates a lot of that risk and you can drop his score if it’s the lowest one.  The Memphis frontcourt is pretty tight with Green, Gasol, and Jackson soaking up all the minutes, and Jackson is foul-prone which could lead to Green unleashed.  Toronto ranks eighth against PFs, but this is merely a price play. Other options – Thaddeus Young, Serge Ibaka, James Johnson, Trey Lyles   CENTER TOP PLAY Nikola Jokic, DEN ($9000) At $1600 less than Drummond, Jokic is the clear choice for cash even though his minutes have been far more inconsistent.  Denver is playing way up in pace to a Lakers squad that ranks fifth in pace and has allowed the second most assists per game, and they also rank 28th against centers and 18th in rebounding rate.  Jokic is averaging 1.44 FPPM this year, so he could easily outstrip his price tag even if he’s limited (which I hope he won’t be).  Jokic is a top cash target for me tonight. Other options – Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, Hassan Whiteside Mid-tier options – DeAndre Ayton, Enes Kanter   VALUE PLAY Bam Adebayo, MIA ($4600) Bam is a recommended play with Whiteside IN?? Bam has a 14-13 game and a 16-21 masterpiece in his last two while logging 26 and 36 minutes respectively, drawing high praise from his coach.  He isn’t a consistent enough option for cash, but he has elite GPP skills, especially with Whiteside dealing with some knee tendinitis right now.  Should Whiteside happen to sit, Bam would become the top value, especially against a Hawks team that ranks first in pace, 27th against centers, 26th in rebounding rate, and has allowed the second most bench points. Other options – Myles Turner, DeWayne Dedmon, Alex Len Fantasy Basketball

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