Well, yesterday was a night to forget as Kyle Kuzma’s disastrous shooting cost me a win on FD. Today’s article will obviously focus on the six-game main slate for NBA, but here are some quick hits on the NFL Wild Card Weekend if you’re playing cash games (in GPP all bets are off:
–Todd Gurley is 100% worth his 10k price tag, and Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry make the best complements
–Don’t waste paying up for the Jacksonville D if it costs you a tier of skill player (Saints, Chiefs, Rams all perfectly good)
–Sanu, Rishard Matthews, and Albert Wilson are all fine punts at WR if you need the savings
–If you can get up to Travis Kelce, do it, but don’t force it
OK, on the NBA. I’ll be in chat tonight helping our subs get back on track, and I’ll try and pop in early before the NFL games start too. You can follow me on twitter @jac3600 as well (which I recommend since I amended yesterday’s writeup).
Chris Paul, HOU ($10,100)
Paul is tricky because we’re actually seeing Eric Gordon absorb quite a bit of James Harden’s usage (and Gerald Green is stepping up too), but CP3 is still rocking almost a 68% assist rate with Harden off the court which makes him super safe. Detroit is not the best defensive matchup, but you’re paying for the rates here, and Paul is still not QUITE priced appropriately.
Other options – John Wall
Mid-tier options – Elfrid Payton, Kris Dunn, Eric Bledsoe
Victor Oladipo, IND ($9300)
Oladipo is optimistic about returning tonight which would make him a phenomenal GPP play (I’m not particularly interested in cash at his price after battling a knee injury). However, Dipo’s usage with Indiana has been elite this year and the Bulls rank 21st in overall team defense and 24th against SGs (plus they’re coming off a b2b).
Other options – Bradley Beal
Mid-tier options – Eric Gordon (8k??), Khris Middleton
Andrew Wiggins, MIN ($5700)
Wiggins is not priced for the boost he’s getting with Jeff Teague, which includes a 23% UR and 12% AR. He’s getting major minutes (as all of Thibodeaux’s starters do), and the Pelicans rank sixth in pace, 23rd in overall team defense, and 21st against SGs. You want exposure to this game of rising Western Conference teams, and Wiggins is a solid cheap way to do so.
Other options – Will Barton, Evan Fournier, Avery Bradley (ick), Dwyane Wade, Buddy Hield
LeBron James, CLE ($11,700)
LeBron is a tough one to fade tonight even with other cheaper studs in great spots as well. Isaiah Thomas is starting which could reduce LeBron’s assist rate slightly, but Isaiah’s presence will also help LeBron’s efficiency. Orlando is a prime DFS attack point as they rank seventh in pace, 26th in team defense, and the bottom ten in every positional category (28th against SFs). It may cost you Cousins, but I recommend paying for the King tonight as of right now.
Other options – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler
Mid-tier options – Otto Porter
Jonathan Simmons/Mario Hezonja, ORL ($5700/$4000)
Simmons hasn’t been practicing with back spasms which leaves his status murky for tonight, and Hezonja would presumably step into the starting role should Simmons sit. Either is perfectly fine as the complement to LeBron as the Cavs rank 28th in overall team defense and 22nd against SFs. This game has a slate high 222.5 O/U and should be attacked head on.
Other options – Trevor Ariza, Wilson Chandler, Kelly Oubre, Reggie Bullock, E’Twaun Moore
Aaron Gordon, ORL ($7900)
Gordon is a gift tonight, and I’ll just bypass right over Anthony Davis to get to him. Gordon has a 24% UR, 14% RR, and 10% AR with Vucevic off the court and has averaged 35 MPG over the last four since he returned from his own injuries. Gordon’s price tag only requires him to get about 36-37 points for value which seems easy against the Cavs who are 28th in overall team defense and 24th against PFs. Gordon’s athleticism will have him running circles around Kevin Love or Jae Crowder.
Other options – Anthony Davis
Mid-tier options – Tobias Harris
Damontas Sabonis/Thaddeus Young, IND ($5800/$5100)
Indiana is a situation to monitor. Not only do they have several key players questionable, but there are hints that the starting lineup may change. Sabonis is trending in the right direction as far as minutes go, and would be a lock for me alongside Aaron Gordon if he were to pick up a start tonight. The Bulls are playing on tired legs and rank 25th against PFs. Both of these guys are fine for cash games at sub-6k prices.
Other options – Lauri Markkanen, Taj Gibson, John Henson, Markieff Morris, Bobby Portis
DeMarcus Cousins, NO ($11,200)
Cousins is in a fantastic spot tonight, but center is so deep that he falls far behind LeBron on my priority list for cash. The Timberwolves have been hemorrhaging points to center, and rank 27th in defensive efficiency against them (and 20th in overall team defense). Boogie is rocking amazing rates (32% UR, 20% RR, 24% AR) and is more than cash viable on almost any slate. Just don’t sacrifice LeBron and play two questionable SFs to force him in.
Other options – Nikola Jokic, Andre Drummond, Karl-Anthony Towns (all viable pivots)
Mid-tier options – Clint Capela (best value), Kevin Love, Myles Turner
Clint Capela, HOU ($7400)
Capela is rapidly joining my man crush list of centers (move over Cousins and Drummond). With Nene out once again, Capela should see 28 minutes with upside into the 30s, and his usage is up to 22% without Harden. Drummond is a tough draw for Capela with his elite rebounding rates, but on the flip side this should also stabilize Capela’s minutes as his size will be needed to slow Drummond down. Detroit also ranks 18th in defensive efficiency against centers.
Other options – Mason Plumlee, Marcin Gortat