Happy Easter to our FTA family! The baseball season has hit its first Sunday and we still haven’t experienced a loss, so let’s keep it going on FanDuel’s seven-game main slate today. Unfortunately we don’t get the HOU/TEX game (you can enjoy that on DK), but there are still adequate ways to take advantage of some cheap pricing. I will TRY to get into chat around noon to help out our subs (Easter plans and all), but I’m always on twitter @jac3600.
Jose Quintana, CHC ($8800)
Quintana is a core play on FD today (not as much of a lock on DK). He’s a -205 favorite on the road with a 3.3 IRTA (both slate highs/lows) and the Marlins no longer offer anyone that instills fear in their lineup. Quintana has a career high 26.2 K% last season, and he’s simply underpriced for all of this. You can fit multiple big bats around him, so lock him in.
Other options – Sonny Gray
Luke Weaver, STL ($7800)
Weaver is my favorite GPP play on FD (and a cash lock on DK). He was incredible last season with a 2.93 xFIP and a 28.6% K rate, and it’s incredibly chilly in NY today. The Mets have shown nice pop thus far this season, but they project as an above average K team against RHP, and they have the second lowest IRT on the slate after the Marlins (3.6 runs).
Other options – Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Steven Matz, Jacob Faria
Miguel Cabrera, DET ($3800)
There are plenty of cheap options for cash games, but Cabrera is intriguing for GPPs. He had a very strong Spring and it’s carried over into the season thus far (he seems fully healthy). Trevor Williams was OK last year, but pitched to a very pedestrian 4.49 xFIP and walked over three batters per nine innings. Miggy has that tournament winning upside even with a watered-down Tigers lineup.
Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Jose Abreu, Gary Sanchez, Willson Contreras
Logan Morrison, MIN ($2400)
Morrison is still too cheap on FD. Remember, he’s only a year removed from a 38-homer season. While Minnesota’s home park will suppress that power, he’s not in Minnesota right now – he’s in Camden Yards which seriously inflates LH power. Kevin Gausman is a quality pitcher but he’s had his struggles with hard contact, and Morrison helps you fit in some studs at other positions.
Other options – Justin Smoak, Lucas Duda, Chris Davis
Catcher punts – Yadier Molina, Welington Castillo, James McCann/John Hicks
Brian Dozier, MIN ($3700)
Dozier is still too cheap on FD and can be used in all formats. Kevin Gausman has K upside but he’s really struggled with same-handed hitters for his career (.340 wOBA and 1.44 HR/9 allowed to RHB). Dozier is an event-type player with power and speed, and Minnesota is in one of the more favorable hitting environments.
Other options – Jonathan Schoop
Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3000)
It’s cold in KC, but Moncada is still a power/speed type player that can be used in all formats. Jason Hammel has seen his K rate steadily decline over the past two years, and he pitched to a 4.92 xFIP last season. Hammel has also allowed 1.33 HR/9 over the past two seasons and the White Sox have come out firing (even though it shouldn’t last).
Other options – Whit Merrifield, Neil Walker, Yangervis Solarte, Devon Travis
Kris Bryant, CHC ($4600)
Bryant is FULLY priced, but he can still be fit in if you really want him. His upside is tremendous against lefty Dillon Peters, whose 5.86 BB/9 last season should spell major trouble against this potent Cubs lineup. Bryant is off to a good start, and he had a .405 wOBA and .218 ISO against LHP last year.
Other options – Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas, Miguel Sano
Matt Duffy, TB ($2300)
Boston pitcher Hector Velazquez pitched to a 2.92 ERA last year in eight games, but it’s masked by a 4.58 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP. He also gave up 1.46 HR/9 last year, and Duffy has had two solid games in his first three contests for the Rays. Duffy doesn’t hold any platoon edge or project for any sort of immense pop, but he’s very cheap if you want to spend on multiple big OFs.
Other options – Jeimer Candelario, Tim Beckham, Matt Davidson
Manny Machado, BAL ($4000)
Without Carlos Correa on FD, the SS position becomes pretty tricky. Machado is a career reverse-split hitter that can certainly be used in cash, but remember he’s facing a high K upside guy in Berrios. One thing to note, however, is that Berrios’ ERA indicated a LOT of good luck last season based on BABIP and HR/FB rates, and Machado is one of the best hitters in baseball.
Other options – Didi Gregorius
Eduardo Escobar, MIN ($2200)
The route I’m most likely taking in cash today is punting SS with Escobar. He sat yesterday so he should play today, and he has enough of a power/speed profile to warrant a $2200 tag. Minnesota has an IRT of 4.4 runs which isn’t amazing, but there really aren’t many teams that blow that total out of the water on this slate. Escobar is a more than adequate way to escape a garbage position.
Other options – Paul DeJong, Tim Anderson, Aledmys Diaz
Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge, NYY ($4600/$4100)
The matchup against Marcus Stroman is not ideal, but Stanton and Judge’s power profile outstrip the rest of the field by such a wide margin (except for maybe Kris Bryant) that you should really be grabbing one of them in cash. Marcus Stroman is an average K pitcher, and an elite GB pitcher, but both of these guys are underpriced and offer double-HR upside on any given day. Once the summer hits, they’ll be above 5K every day, so take advantage now.
Other options – JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Starling Marte, Marcell Ozuna
Tommy Pham, STL ($2800)
Pham is one of the values I’m most excited about rostering on this slate. He’s a player with 25/25 (or even 30/30) potential, and he cut his K rate down from 39% to 22% from 2016 to 2017. Steven Matz is a tough pitcher to predict right now, but Pham had an elite .405 wOBA and .260 ISO against LHP last season. He’s my #DFSHRcall today (and by the way, I haven’t missed yet this year).
Other options – Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Brett Gardner, Eddie Rosario, Andrew Benintendi, Leonys Martin, Denard Span, Kevin Kiermaier, Dexter Fowler, Curtis Granderson