It’s back to school for real this time for me as the kids show up today, so I’m going to try and get this out to you guys nice and early. We have a 12-game main slate for Tuesday, and keep in mind September callups have happened which could offer some nice value plays to help you pay up for expensive pitching (which there is a lot of today). I will be in chat later helping out all our FTA subs, and give me a follow on twitter @jac3600.
Mike Clevinger, CLE ($12,000)
With Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer $1300 and $1500 cheaper, respectably, it seems like it’s madness to pay this much more for Clevinger, right? Not so fast. Believe it or not, the Indians righty has a better SIERA than deGrom this year, and a higher K% and GB% than both of them. His swinging strike rate has matched them all season, and he gets the luxury of being the Vegas darling as well (-320 favorite, 3.2 IRTA). DeGrom and Scherzer will be facing each other so the spread is about even, and the Nationals and Mets have 21.1% and 19.9% K rates as opposed to the White Sox who have struck out at a 25.7% rate with the highest K rate against RHP in the second half. If you need the savings, you can go down to deGrom (Max’s pitch count still worries me), but point for point and dollar for dollar, I think Clevinger is the king of this slate.
Other options – Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Jack Flaherty
Mike Foltynewicz, ATL ($7800)
I expect Folty’s ownership will be rather low given the season he’s had and the fact that he couldn’t make it to five innings against these same Blue Jays last game. Remember, though, that game was in Toronto and the Jays will be losing the DH AND going through a park downgrade. This is big news as it’s likely they’ll be without Vlad or Smoak, and Toronto features a very right-handed lineup. Folty has struggled against lefties in his career but he’s really been able to handle righties with a 27.2% K rate and a .290 wOBA allowed.
Other options – Mitch Keller, Jon Lester, Merrill Kelly, Dylan Cease
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4100)
Rizzo has returned to the lineup for the Cubs and has a 57% HHR in that span, bringing his 15-day HHR up to 44.4%. Today the Cubs check in with an IRT of 5.9 (which could go up if the wind changes), and they’re facing Felix Hernandez who has allowed a 46.4% HHR and .208 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year. In that span, Rizzo has hammered righties for a .386 wOBA and .250 ISO.
Other options – Josh Bell, Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt
Matt Olson, OAK ($3400)
Olson continues to be perpetually cheap on FD, and he’s a nice target to take advantage of today. The park factor is obviously not good in Oakland, but the A’s still have a 5.3 IRT against Jaime Barria who has a 33.3% GB rate this season and a whopping 48.1% FB rate since last year. Olson is a platoon nightmare, with a .360 wOBA and .286 ISO against RHP since last year, and he has a 43.4% HHR over the last 15 days.
Other options – Christian Walker, Justin Smoak, Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Dixon
Catcher values – Robinson Chirinos, Tom Murphy, Yasmani Grandal, Christian Vasquez
Whit Merrifield, KC ($3600)
Merrifield’s price is starting to creep up a bit, but we’re still getting nice value for him today. Despite their overall offensive struggles, the Royals have an IRT of 5.2 runs against Daniel Norris who has allowed a 45.2% HHR to RHB since last year, and the Detroit bullpen ranks 27th in SIERA (plus they’ve traded Shane Greene who was their only stable force). Merrifield has a .179 ISO against LHP since last year, and a 0.046 SB/PA which gives him solid event upside. He’s a great floor play for cash.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Ketel Marte, Jason Kipnis
Ozzie Albies, ATL ($3300)
After a very slow start, Albies has put together a solid year for the Braves and now finds himself hitting second in front of Freddie Freeman every day. He’s been better from the right side this year but still has a 41% HHR against RHP, and this looks like a bullpen day for the Blue Jays which is good for the prospects of Atlanta (Toronto ranks 24th in SIERA and is falling).
Other options – Cavan Biggio, Ian Happ, Jeff McNeil, Gavin Lux (hit 8th yesterday, lock him in if he’s any higher)
Kris Bryant, CHC ($4200)
The Cubs seems to be the most obvious stack at this time, especially with the wind potentially being an aid to the hitters. Bryant has a 15-day HHR of only 15.6%, but this is a good matchup for him. He’s got a .373 wOBA and .240 ISO against same-handed pitching since last season, and King Felix just isn’t the same pitcher anymore (18.9% K rate, 43.4% HHR allowed).
Other options – Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Justin Turner, Hunter Dozier, Josh Donaldson
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($2900)
The matchup is against Zack Greinke which complicates things a bit, but I just can’t fathom a sub-3k price tag for a guy who carries a .274 ISO in the platoon split since last season. Greinke has (predictably) pitched well to both sides of the plate, but his K rate is 4% lower to LHB and his BB rate is 1.2% higher. You can definitely use him at this cheap price if you want to grab some top bats (and a high end SP).
Other options – Mann Machado, Matt Carpenter, Vlad Guerrero
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4200)
We haven’t hit on the Indians yet, who are in competition for the top offense on the slate with an IRT of 5.8 runs. Dylan Cease has top prospect potential but the command isn’t there yet (9.7% K rate) and his SIERA is sitting at 4.77 at the MLB level. Lindor is up to a combined 46 homers and steals and he has a .266 ISO against RHP this season. He’s one of the top overall hitters on the slate.
Other options – Javier Baez, Jorge Polanco, Alex Bregman, Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story
Adalberto Mondesi, KC ($3100)
Despite the vast array of high-end shortstops above, opportunity cost is not that high at the position due to some really nice values. Mondesi’s price tag does not NEAR reflect what it was when he was peaking earlier in the year and it’s almost impossible not to play him at this price tag. As far as power goes, he’s far better from the left side, but Norris shouldn’t last long in this game and Mondesi’s 0.077 SB/PA is the highest of any player on the slate. He had four hits and three SBs in his first game back, and you want to keep rolling him in cash.
Other options – Corey Seager, Paul DeJong, JP Crawford
Cody Bellinger, LAD ($4700)
It’s going to be difficult to get Bellinger into your lineups if you go all the way up to Clevinger, but he is my top overall hitter on this slate and someone I’d really try to prioritize. The Dodgers hung 16 runs on Colorado pitching last night, and now they get Chi Chi Gonzalez who may be the worst starter in baseball with his 6.48 SIERA, 11.8% K rate, and 12.9% BB rate. The bullpen behind his is shot from yesterday as well, and Bellinger has an elite .404 wOBA and .318 ISO against RHP since last season.
Other options – Mike Trout, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantleu, Ronald Acuna, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Jorge Soler, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, AJ Pollock
Nick Castellanos, CHC ($3300)
I’m not sure what more Castellanos has to do with the Cubs before FanDuel ups his price tag. He is better against lefties but we’ve already spoken about King Felix’s struggles and Castellanos has a very adequate .202 ISO against RHP since last year. He also has a 33.3% HHR over the last 15 games.
Other options – Yasiel Puig, Oscar Mercado, Greg Allen, Franmil Reyes, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Dexter Fowler, Shohei Ohtani, Khris Davis, Robbie Grossman, Tim Lopes, Andrew Benintendi, Trent GrishamFantasy Baseball