FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 9/28/18


It’s the final weekend of the MLB regular season!  You need to be extremely careful about who you roster these last three days, as resting players or shortened starts from a pitcher could come at the drop of a hat.  The best targets are in the games that still have meaning (thankfully we have the Rockies in Coors to check all boxes on that front), and players shooting for individual awards.  I’ll be on chat earlier tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

 

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Gerrit Cole, HOU ($11,400)

Cole as literally the only viable cash SP1 yesterday, but there are at least other options to consider today.  It doesn’t stop Cole from being the top overall starter as he gets a matchup against the Orioles who rank 29th in wRC+ against RHP and are last in ISO.  Cole is a Cy Young candidate with a 2.98 xFIP and an elite 35% K rate (although I think Blake Snell has wrapped it up now), and he’s a massive -240 road favorite where the temps will be cool in Camden Yards.

Other options – Patrick Corbin, Mike Clevinger, Mike Foltynewicz

 

VALUE PLAY

Tyler Glasnow, TB ($6900)

If you’re looking to emphasize offense, Glasnow is a viable cash option at such a cheap price tag.  His command issues leave him prone to blowups, and the scary thing is we saw him hit rock bottom less than a month ago when he gave up seven runs in one inning to these very same Blue Jays.  However, now the Blue Jays come to Tampa where they get a major park downgrade, and Glasnow’s 3.4 IRTA rivals the studs listed above.  He’s an elite GPP option, and you can play him in cash to load up on the bats.

Other options – Thomas Pannone, Jordan Zimmermann, Wade LeBlanc, Zack Davies, Corey Oswalt

 

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($3800)

Goldy is in San Diego which is one of the worst hitting environments on the slate, but he’s too cheap at his price tag and is facing Eric Lauer who has allowed a 41% HHR to RHB.  Goldy has a career .428 wOBA and .268 ISO and is finishing off another amazing offensive season.  He can be played in all formats.

Other options – Freddie Freeman, Edwin Encarnacion, Jesus Aguilar, Matt Olson

 

VALUE PLAY

C.J. Cron, TB ($3000)

Cron owns a massive 40% HHR over the last 15 days and will have the platoon edge where he owns a .242 ISO against LHP over the last three years.  Thomas Pannone can be easily attacked as his 3.58 ERA is all smoke and mirrors (5.49 xFIP, 16.8% K rate), and the Blue Jays bullpen ranks 24th in FIP.

Other options – Carlos Santana, Steve Pearce, Joe Mauer, Derek Dietrich

Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann, Rockies catcher

 

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Travis Shaw, MIL ($4100)

The Brewers are a key team on this slate.  They are in a dead tie with the Cubs for the division so every game is critical over the weekend.  Shaw has a .290 ISO against RHP this year and opposing pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has allowed 1.84 HR/9 to LHB.  The Brew Crew has an IRT of 5.1 runs at home, and Shaw has been firmly ensconced in the 3/4 hole.

Other options – Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve, DJ LeMahieu

 

VALUE PLAY

Logan Forsythe, MIN ($2400)

“Lovable Logan” is always there if you need a punt.  He’s not an exciting hitter by any means, but he hits in the top four of the lineup more often than he doesn’t, and whatever success Lucas Giolito was having is long over with.  The Twins have an IRT of 4.8 runs, and the White Sox bullpen behind Giolito ranks 27th in FIP.

Other options – Ozzie Albies, Gleyber Torres, Yoan Moncada, Jonathan Schoop

 

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Anthony Rendon, WAS ($4800)

If you want to spend up for someone, I have no problem with it being Rendon.  Kyle Freeland has been really good for the Rockies, but there’s definite room for regression (2.84 ERA/4.21 xFIP), and Rendon is a known lefty-killer with a .402 wOBA and .271 ISO against them over the last three years.  The Nats’ IRT of 4.6 runs seems way too low, and Rendon is also sizzling right now (three homers, 12 RBI last seven games with a 46% HHR in that span).  He’s well worth his price tag, but I wouldn’t pay for him if it costs you Blackmon/Dahl (more on them later).

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Mike Moustakas, Matt Chapman, Miguel Andujar, Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson

 

VALUE PLAY

Matt Duffy, TB ($2800)

Duffy is not near as exciting as the top guys, so I’d devote some funds up there if you can.  However, I mentioned the struggles of Thomas Pannone, and Duffy usually hits in the top three against lefties.  He has a 16% K rate over an 8.4% BB rate, so a lot of his downside is diminished by his ability to get on base.

Other options – Adrian Beltre, Wil Myers, Eduardo Nunez

 

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trea Turner, WAS ($4600)

Turner is a reverse split hitter, but he’s a solid power/speed option as a top two hitter on the road in Coors Field.  Kyle Freeland has a career 50% GB rate which speaks a lot to his success, but Chris Iannetta has a -3 wSB rating so if Turner gets on he could run wild.  He falls way down the cash priority list but is a key part of Nats stacks.

Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Jean Segura

 

VALUE PLAY

Jorge Polanco, MIN ($3400)

I wish Polanco was a little cheaper than this, but he’s a switch hitter and is a great way to attack Lucas Giolito and the White Sox pen.  Polanco is 7-14 over his last three games and he also has 19 steals over his last two years.  This is significant as Giolito has allowed 25 SBs this season which is the most on the slate, and Omar Narvaez has a -2.5 wSB rating.

Other options – Willy Adames, Marcus Semien, Elvis Andrus

 

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Charlie Blackmon/David Dahl, COL ($4400/$4300)

You want one of these guys in cash, and if you go cheap at SP (Glasnow or someone in that range) I’d target both.  Joe Ross has been awful since returning from the DL, and even when he was good he was still bad against lefties.  He’s allowed a career .362 wOBA and 1.54 HR/9 to LHB and Blackmon and Dahl both have elite platoon splits and will be at home.  Dahl is particular is incredibly enticing as he’s now homered in four straight games with eight hits and 11 RBI as well.  Take advantage of the Rockies’ IRT of 5.9 runs with at least one, if not both of these guys.

Other options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, George Springer, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Ronald Acuna, Michael Brantley, Khris Davis, Tommy Pham

 

VALUE PLAY

Eddie Rosario, MIN ($3400)

Rosario is not quite in the tier of the amazing upside guys listed above, but he possesses power and speed for a Twins team that should find success tonight against Lucas Giolito.  Rosario has 51 homers and 17 steals over the last two seasons and has a 37% HHR against RHP since the beginning of last year.  He’s viable in all formats.

Other options – Victor Robles, Curtis Granderson, Ryan Braun, Aaron Hicks, Daniel Palka, Nicky Delmonico, Kole Calhoun, Gerardo Parra, Max Kepler, Ramon Laureano, Steven Souza, Marwin Gonzalez, Jay Bruce

Fantasy Baseball

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