FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 9/26/18

Free Draftkings DFS MLB Plays

It was a successful day of Ryan Braun-owning yesterday in DFS, although benching him in my high stakes seasonal league may be my fatal flaw.  Let’s keep the final week of baseball going with today’s 12-game slate, and the big question is will Cy Young favorite Jacob deGrom get to double-digit wins?? It’s amazing we even have to ask that question, but baseball has been wacky this year.  Make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600, and my chat presence tonight will depend on volleyball results.  Good luck!

 

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Jacob deGrom, NYM ($12,300)

It’s deGrom’s final start before he cashes in his stats in hopes of winning the NL Cy Young.  It’s a hefty price tag to pay in cash, but you can’t get more money than this guy.  He’s gone 28 straight starts allowing three runs or less and only has one start the entire year that wasn’t of the “quality” variety.  The Braves do rank third in wRC+ against RHP but deGrom has a freaking 1.66 ERA and a 35% K rate at home this season.  The temps have cooled off, and I expect the Braves bats will too for one night.  DeGrom is viable across all formats.

Other options – Chris Sale (keep an eye on pitch counts – if he’s at 85-90 he’s cash viable at a depressed price tag), Masahiro Tanaka, German Marquez

 

VALUE PLAY

Shane Bieber, CLE ($8800)

Biebs should be a good play tonight with a long leash.  There is a little risk since the White Sox have been able to get pretty left-handed recently (Bieber has allowed a .401 wOBA and .241 ISO to LHB), but they still have the highest K rate against RHP and the game will be played in sub-50 degree temps with a favorable umpire.  You can use Bieber in cash if you want to fit in Coors bats and whatnot, and he has a tiny 3.7 IRTA.

Other options – Andrew Heaney, Jake Odorizzi, Sean Newcomb, Ross Stripling, Felix Hernandez

 

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4200)

The wind is blowing out tonight in Wrigley against and Anthony Rizzo has rocked RHP for a .405 wOBA since the ASG.  Ivan Nova is no match for lefties as he’s been blistered for 1.52 HR/9.  If you dip down into the Bieber/Heaney range for cash tonight, Rizzo is an easy fit, and rates as one of the best overall hitters on the slate.

Other options – Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Olson

 

VALUE PLAY

Carlos Santana, PHI ($3300)

Attacking German Marquez has not yielded positive results in the second half of this year as he’s pitched like a bona fide #1 SP.  However, Santana is cheap in Coors Field and holds a .191 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.  Despite all his success this year, lefties have still gotten to Marquez via the long ball, as he’s allowed 1.33 HR/9 to them.

Other options – Tyler Austin, Ian Desmond, Steve Pearce

Catcher values – Wilson Ramos, Chris Iannetta, Willson Contreras

 

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4700)

Ramirez carries the top projection at the position against a White Sox bullpen that ranks 27th in xFIP.  He’s a stronger hitter from the left side, but Jace Fry shouldn’t last long in this game which gives Ramirez potentially almost a full game as a lefty where he’s got near a .300 ISO since the beginning of last year.  He’s not necessary in cash, but spend away in GPPs.

Other options – Robinson Cano, D.J. LeMahieu

 

VALUE PLAY

Daniel Murphy, CHC ($3300)

Murphy is a way you can get access to Cubs upside without spending all the way for Rizzo (even though he is the better hitter).  Murphy has been swinging a cold bat lately (8% HHR last 15 games) but his price tag is now reflective of that and Nova is a good way to get back on track.  Over the past two seasons, Murphy has posted a .239 ISO against LHP.

Other options – Cesar Hernandez, Yoan Moncada, Ian Kinsler

 

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4600)

It’s better to attack Nick Pivetta with lefties, but Arenado is the best hitter on a Rockies team sporting a healthy IRT of 5.8 runs.  He still holds a .243 ISO against same-handed pitching, and when Pivetta goes wrong he’s giving up long balls left and right.  He’s allowed 1.30 HR/9, and his FB ways will not do him any favors in Coors Field.

Other options – Matt Chapman, Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson

 

VALUE PLAY

Rafael Devers/Eduardo Nunez, BOS ($3100/$2300)

The second starter of the BAL/BOS doubleheader has not yet been named for the Orioles, but the Red Sox already have an IRT in anticipation of it being someone lousy (which is a safe bet when you’re facing the Orioles).  Their entire pitching staff now ranks dead last in FIP, and it’s possible one of these “too-cheap” third basemen wind up with a great lineup spot given the propensity to rest up other players before the break.

Other options – Wil Myers, Adrian Beltre, Todd Frazier

 

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Lindor does not quite fit the slate for cash, but he’s a massive upside play against a White Sox bullpen that should struggle all game.  Lindor has a combined 59 homers and steals and has a .401 wOBA against LHP this season.  The Indians have an IRT of 5.1 runs.

Other options – Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Javier Baez

 

VALUE PLAY

Andrelton Simmons, LAA ($2700)

The Angels were a bit of a letdown yesterday, but they get an even better matchup tonight against Yohander Mendez who is not a major league pitcher.  Mendez has allowed a 49% FB rate and 1.47 HR/9 to RHB this season with a ridiculous 4.1% K/BB rate (get ready for a Trout writeup later).

Other options – Jorge Polanco, Elvis Andrus, Amed Rosario, Marcus Semien

 

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mike Trout, LAA ($5000)

Trout has a .421 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 174 wRC+ against LHP this season.  Yohander Mendez can’t get people out.  Feel absolutely free to pay the price tag here.  Nuff said.

Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Rhys Hoskins, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Khris Davis

 

VALUE PLAY

Steven Souza, ARI ($2000)

Souza has a tough matchup against Ross Stripling, but Souza is min priced with a lineup spot of fourth or fifth.  He’ll help you fit Trout/Blackmon along with a pretty decent pitcher if that’s the route you want to go.

Other options – Joc Pederson, Kole Calhoun, Odubel Herrera, AJ Pollock, Kole Calhoun, Daniel Palka, Gerardo Parra, Ramon Laureano

 

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