We had some GPP winners as we kicked off the final week of baseball, so jump on into our premium subscription and see what FTA has to offer! Today we have a full 15-game slate, complete with Coors, Scherzer, value pitchers, and Trout in a mismatch. You’ll have some decisions to make, so let us help you all we can! I’ll see everyone in chat tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
David Price, BOS ($9800)
Max Scherzer is so money that he’s incredibly tough to fade, especially against Miami with their 2.6 IRTA. However, this Marlins squad proved to be very contact-oriented as they frustrated Stephen Strasburg (and me) by working him until he could only last four innings. In cash, I’m perfectly fine saving $2600 on Price, which gets me some solid bats. Price is facing the Orioles who rank last by FAR in wRC+ against LHP, and he’s a huge -295 favorite with an IRTA of only 2.9 runs. Don’t worry about Price last game against the Yankees – he’s always lousy against them.
Other options – Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Luis Severino
Josh James, HOU ($6500)
There’s too much high-end pitching to risk this in cash (although I said the same thing about Nathan Eovaldi yesterday), but James looks like a wondrous GPP play. It’s tough to pin down an innings baseline for him, but there’s no denying the talent or the upside. James had an elite 35.7% K rate in AAA all this year and thus far it’s translated to the major league level, with a 37.2% K rate in his first 16 innings of work. Toronto is 20th in wRC+ against RHP this season and has some high K bats in there.
Other options – Chris Archer, Chris Stratton, Matt Harvey, Touki Toussaint, Robbie Erlin
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4100)
Attacking Chris Archer is tough because there are much less talented pitchers on this slate, but the wind is blowing out in Wrigley Field and Archer has allowed a .187 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year. Rizzo has a .246 ISO against RHP in that span, but I don’t see the need for him in cash with a too-cheap Santana in Coors Field.
Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, Joey Votto, Wilson Ramos
Carlos Santana, PHI ($3400)
Santana is in Coors and is priced as a value. That’s all you need to know, but he’s got a good shot at five PAs and has a .192 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season. The Phils have an IRT of 5.2 runs and Santana’s recent HHR does not reflect his game log.
Other options – Justin Smoak, Joe Mauer, Steve Pearce, Jose Fernandez
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann, Tucker Barnhart
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4600)
Ramirez has a combined 71 homers and steals and is facing James Shields who has allowed a .214 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. The Indians sat most of their regulars yesterday so it’s likely they’re back in today, and J-Ram is pushing for the AL MVP. He’s a bit pricey for cash, but remains an elite GPP option.
Other options – Jose Altuve, D.J. LeMahieu, Whit Merrifield, Rougned Odor
Logan Forsythe, MIN ($2400)
Forsythe is not an exciting hitter by any means, but he should keep his top-four lineup spot for a Twins offense that has a surprisingly high IRT of 5.3 runs. Spencer Turnbull is a highly rated prospect who has had an amazing year at AAA (1.38 FIP, 35.9% K rate). However, he got blitzed in his first start the other day and ZiPS has him for a 6.13 K/9 and a 4.49 BB/9. This is a cash punt that can make big bats work with an expensive pitcher.
Other options – Cesar Hernandez, Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4500)
Arenado has a fairly difficult matchup against Vince Velasquez who has a 26.1% K rate and has been good against righties this year. However, this is a guy fresh off a year where he allowed 1.88 HR/9, and he’s still been prone to those blowups this year. Coors Field is not going to help his FB ways, and the Rockies have an IRT of 5.8 runs.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Donaldson, Asdrubal Cabrera
Rafael Devers, BOS ($3100)
Devers’ lineup spot has been bouncing all over the place, but he’s got a .202 ISO against RHP in his career. Jimmy Yacabonis is starting for the Orioles and he’s allowed 2.21 HR/9 this year. Boston has an IRT of five runs, and Devers is an affordable way to get a part of it. It’s also important to note that Baltimore’s bullpen ranks dead last in FIP.
Other options – Wil Myers, Maikel Franco, Taylor Ward
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4400)
Lindor fits into any format tonight as he carries the same upside as mentioned in Jose Ramirez’s blurb. He is leading off on the road against James Shields, and he has a combined 59 homers and steals this season. The White Sox bullpen behind Shields also ranks 27th in FIP and 26th in xFIP.
Other options – Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts
Andrelton Simmons, LAA ($2700)
Simmons is a punt option at the SS position if you want to spend in the outfield alongside a top pitcher. The environment isn’t great in L.A., but the Angels have an IRT of five runs against Yovani Gallardo who is simply awful. He’s allowed a .383 wOBA and .224 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last season while striking out only 14% of them. He’ll help you get Trout in cash if you want, a much bigger fish in the same game.
Other options – Jorge Polanco, Amed Rosario, Hernan Perez, Ronny Rodriguez
Mike Trout, LAA ($5000)
Blackmon is facing a righty in Coors for $700 cheaper, but I just can’t get off Trout tonight. I mentioned Gallardo’s horrific splits since the beginning of last year, and Trout has a .435 wOBA and .345 ISO against RHP in that span. He is more than worth his price tag, and also has a 39% HHR over the last 15 games. Yowza.
Other options – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Rhys Hoskins, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Cody Bellinger
Joc Pederson, LAD ($3100)
As long as he’s leading off, Joc is jumping off the page even with the PH risk. Matt Koch has been tabbed the starter for the Diamondbacks, and he’s allowed 1.97 HR/9 while posting a 5.74 FIP and a meager 14.1% K rate. Joc’s K rates have plummeted this season and he’s posted a .253 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He remains perpetually underpriced on FD.
Other options – Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Starling Marte, Ryan Braun, Christin Stewart, Kole Calhoun, Marcell Ozuna, Tyler O’Neill, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Billy McKinney, Josh Reddick