FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 9/19/18

Rejoice, for the Yankees hath finally gained a game back on the Oakland A’s (it was looking bleak there for awhile).  The DFS season rages on as we continue with a 10-game slate this evening, and there are multiple ways to go in cash.  I will not be in chat at the typical times, but Thor and Alex are there for you to run optos and help you build the best routes to both cash and GPP.  I’m on twitter @jac3600 as well.  Remember, tomorrow is football day, so look out for my NFL week 3 article.   STARTING PITCHER TOP PLAY Walker Buehler, LAD ($9400) To be clear, Carlos Carrasco is the top pitcher, but the $2000 discount on Buehler is one that I can’t pass up.  The Rockies are ranked dead last in wRC+ against RHP with an above average K rate (I mean that in a bad way), and they have an IRT of three runs which is tied for the lowest on the slate.  Buehler does not have the innings safety that Carrasco does, but the matchup and discount provide you with an extra big bat in your lineup, and Buehler has an elite 28% K rate on the season as well. Other options – Carlos Carrasco, David Price, Luis Severino   VALUE PLAY Chris Archer, PIT ($7800) If you want to add a little more volatility while not sacrificing upside, Archer is your guy.  Archer is fully prone to blowups, but the Royals are the other team on the slate with an IRT of three runs, and Archer is still posting a K rate near 30% with Pittsburgh.  The Royals rank 23rd in wRC+ against RHP and their newer lineups have been a lot more strikeout-prone than earlier in the year.  Archer is an elite GPP play, and he can be used in cash if you want to load up on hitting. Other options – Robbie Ray, Felix Pena, Gio Gonzalez, Tyler Anderson, Robbie Erlin   CATCHER/FIRST BASE TOP PLAY Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4200) Goldy has a fairly difficult matchup against Cole Hamels, but you can still use him in any format since he’s crushed LHP for a .410 wOBA and .277 ISO since the beginning of last year.  Hamels has picked it up since joining the Cubs, but he’s still allowed 1.36 HR/9 this year and a 38% HHR to RHB. Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Matt Olson   VALUE PLAY Justin Smoak, TOR ($3200) Game log watchers will likely fade Smoak as he’s been in a brutal slump which is driven by a 5.3% HHR over the last 15 games.  However, he’s now priced accordingly for this and it’s not going to last forever.  Luis Ortiz is starting for Baltimore and he had a 4.50 FIP in AAA with only a 38% GB rate and 15.6% K rate, and he’s backed by a Baltimore bullpen that now ranks dead last in FIP.  The Blue Jays have an IRT of five runs in Camden Yards. Other options – Kendrys Morales, Josh Bell, Yuli Gurriel, Mitch Moreland, Chris Davis Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Francisco Cervelli, Evan Gattis, Tucker Barnhart   SECOND BASE TOP PLAY Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4900) Jose Ramirez laps the field at 2B tonight, and I’d love to get up to him in cash if possible.  Dylan Covey is one of my favorite attack points in DFS, and the Indians have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.5 runs.  Covey has a career 15% K rate and has allowed a .202 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year, and Ramirez has obliterated RHP over the last two seasons.  He has a combined 71 homers and steals this year and 34 of his 38 homers have come against right-handed pitching.  Whew. Other options – Jose Altuve, Travis Shaw, Whit Merrifield   VALUE PLAY Jonathan Villar, BAL ($3200) Marco Estrada is strong at holding runners on, but he’s also allowed almost a 50% FB rate over the last three seasons and Camden Yards can really get FB pitchers into trouble.  Villar has been swinging the bat well lately (26% HHR last ten games) and he brings immense speed even to a tough matchup for it.  As I said, I’d like to get to Ramirez in cash, but Villar is a fine fallback option if you prioritize Lindor instead (more on him to come). Other options – Brian Dozier, Adam Frazier, Yoan Moncada, Jonathan Schoop   THIRD BASE TOP PLAY Josh Donaldson, CLE ($3500) Donaldson joins the Cleveland onslaught against Dylan Covey tonight.  He won’t have the platoon edge but he’s still posted a .237 ISO in that split since the beginning of 2016.  Covey’s inability to miss bats coupled with the White Sox bullpen that ranks 27th in FIP gives the Indians lineup upside across the board, and you’ll want multiple pieces in cash if you can. Other options – Alex Bregman, Kris Bryant, Justin Turner, Matt Chapman, Eugenio Suarez   VALUE PLAY Renato Nunez, BAL ($2400) If you need a pure punt, you can use Nunez as he’s been getting lineup spots in the top six recently.  Nunez has shown enough of an ability to hit the ball hard that ZiPS has an ISO projection of .219 for him, and he’s facing Marco Estrada who struggles immensely with righty power.  Nunez is a potential means to get both Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor into your lineups without sacrificing a top SP. Other options – Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Rafael Devers, David Freese   SHORTSTOP TOP PLAY Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4700) I don’t need to justify this pick much.  You need one of either Ramirez or Lindor no matter what SP you use, and the cheaper you go increases the likelihood of getting both.  Lindor is having every bit as good a year as his teammate (combined 58 homers and steals) and he’ll lead off for the highest projected offense tonight. Other options – Manny Machado, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa   VALUE PLAY Lourdes Gurriel, TOR ($2900) There’s nothing special that really pops about Gurriel here, but he can be used in any format as a sub-3k player.  He’ll hit in the top two of the order in Camden Yards, and the horrible Orioles pitching staff presents nine innings of upside (hence the Jays’ IRT of five runs).  Gurriel has been serviceable in the power department, posting a .170 ISO against same-handed pitching. Other options – Jean Segura, Nick Ahmed, Tim Beckham   OUTFIELD TOP PLAY Christian Yelich, MIL ($5000) Yelich is becoming a staple of my articles now, but he’s priced far too aggressively for cash today, especially considering I have the Indians’ middle infielders ranked as much higher priorities.  Yelich is up to 51 combined homers and steals and has a 35% HHR the last ten games for a Brewers squad that also has an IRT of five runs.  Matt Harvey has allowed a .377 wOBA and .239 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last season and his velocity is slowly coming down.  Make sure to have plenty of Yelich exposure in GPPs tonight. Other options – Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Brantley, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Khris Davis, George Springer, Starling Marte   VALUE PLAY Billy McKinney, TOR ($2800) With so much priority on the Indians infield, you’ll want to save money in the outfield.  McKinney is constantly going to be a top value on FD where his price tag just refuses to move, and leading off on the road gives him a good shot at five PAs.  There’s some risk here as he got pinch hit for last night, but the sub-3k price tag mitigates a lot of that risk.  McKinney has a .200 ISO this season. Other options – Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, AJ Pollock, Steven Souza, Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins, Adam Jones, Corey Dickerson, Aaron Hicks, Ramon Laureano, Jason Kipnis Fantasy Baseball

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