FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 9/18/18

FTA is having GPP takedowns almost every day now, so you owe it to yourselves to get in on the action at the most competitive rates in the industry.  We have a full 15-game slate tonight, so why not join us in FTA+ chat for us to help you wade through the noise!  We have an interesting mix of pitching and offense, and just a reminder the Yanks/Red Sox game has been pushed back to tonight as well.  I’m on twitter @jac3600 for all your needs as well.   STARTING PITCHER TOP PLAY Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($11,500) There is a ton of pitching up top, and you can justify each and every pick up there as the cash play if you spin it right.  I have Kluber and Kershaw even at the top of the rankings, and the $500 price discount makes the decision easy for me.  The Rockies are better against lefties than they are against righties but still well below average in the K department, and they have a slate low IRT of 2.8 runs (and there are a lot under four tonight).  Kershaw has an elite 3.05 FIP, and his 25% K rate is excellent (even though it’s below his career rates).  The Dodgers need every game desperately, so they’ll push Kershaw to the limit. Other options – Corey Kluber, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola   VALUE PLAY Jameson Taillon, PIT ($9400) Taillon is not priced like a value, but he’s still a great mid-tier option and is borderline cash viable if there are some bats you can’t possibly live without.  Taillon has been great this year with a 3.54 FIP and a 16.1% K/BB rate, and he’s facing a Royals squad that ranks 24th in wRC+ against RHP and is getting a park downgrade while also losing the DH.  KC’s K rates are below average, but Taillon has a 3.1 IRTA and is a -210 favorite.  He can be used in all formats, but I’d pay a little more for cash. Other options – Anibal Sanchez, Joey Lucchesi, Austin Gomber, Dylan Bundy, Jake Odorizzi   CATCHER/FIRST BASE TOP PLAY Ji-Man Choi, TB ($3500) That’s right, wood chuck-chuckers, it’s GROUNDHOG DAY!  Choi came through with flying colors last night, and I’m going back to the well again.  Tampa Bay once again leads the slate with an IRT of 5.6 runs, and they get to take on Yovani Gallardo in the heat of Texas tonight.  Choi has just been bashing the ball the entire second half this year and has a .387 wOBA and .277 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.  He’s going yard again folks – book it. Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Matt Carpenter, Anthony Rizzo   VALUE PLAY Justin Smoak, TOR ($3200) Smoak has been cold (5% HHR last 15 games), but he’s in a nice spot against Dylan Bundy and his price is down.  Bundy has really struggled with LHB since the beginning of last year, allowing a .217 ISO and only striking them out at a 17% rate.  Based on expected low ownership here, Smoak comes in as an elite GPP play if he can get back on track in a good spot. Other options – Kendrys Morales, Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers, Chris Davis Catcher values – Wilson Ramos, Yadier Molina, Brian McCann   SECOND BASE TOP PLAY Travis Shaw, MIL ($4000) Michael Lorenzen will take the hill for the Reds tonight and he’s struggled with command (10% BB rate with only a 16% K rate) while also allowing a ton of lefty power (45% HHR to LHB since the beginning of last year).  Shaw has a .245 ISO against RHP in that span, and is hitting third and fourth now for the Brewers.  They have an IRT of 5.2 runs, which is the second highest on the slate (just like last night). Other options – Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies   VALUE PLAY Logan Forsythe, MIN ($2200) This is a dull pick, but it’s one that could prove necessary if you’re spending all the way up for Kershaw/Snell/Kluber.  Forsythe hit sixth last night which is concerning, but I imagine his .190 ISO against LHP over the last three years will be enough to move him back into the top four, which is a nice value for someone this cheap.  He allows you a lot more wiggle room for a top pitcher and a top hitter (lookin’ at you again, Yelich). Other options – Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Villar, Brandon Lowe, Cesar Hernandez   THIRD BASE TOP PLAY Justin Turner, LAD ($4300) The Dodgers will fly under the radar tonight at home against Kyle Freeland, but they’re a sneaky option as they now rank second in wRC+ against LHP (even with Brian Dozier becoming a total non-factor).  Turner has the highest xwOBA in the league with the platoon split in the second half, and Freeland is still showing some possible regression in that tidy little 2.96 ERA he has (4.14 xFIP).  This is a GPP-only play, but one that could win it for you. Other options – Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Kris Bryant, Eugenio Suarez   VALUE PLAY Josh Donaldson, CLE ($3300) The last time Donaldson faced a lefty at this price, I played him, and he homered.  I’m banking on this again tonight.  Carlos Rodon is by no means a gas can, but he’s still be VERY lucky this year, and his 47% FB rate could be incredibly dangerous against an Indians team that ranks fourth in wRC+ against LHP.  Donaldson is still showing rust, but he’s got a .406 wOBA and .326 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. Other options – Mike Moustakas, Jeimer Candelario, Matt Duffy, Joey Wendle, Wil Myers   SHORTSTOP TOP PLAY Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4500) Lindor has been a machine against LHP this year, posting a .410 wOBA and .260 ISO.  He’ll get the same positive matchup against Rodon’s FB ways, and Lindor also brings an elite speed component to the game.  He has a combined 58 homers and steals this season, and the tribe has a solid IRT of five runs.  Lindor’s price makes it tough in cash, but he’s an elite GPP option. Other options – Manny Machado, Javier Baez, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa   VALUE PLAY Asdrubal Cabrera, PHI ($2700) Just play Cabrera in cash (unless there’s a cheaper option that opens up).  He’s very mediocre from the left side (.114 ISO), but Steven Matz has allowed a 42% HHR to RHB this year.  Cabrera will also maintain the platoon edge against a lousy Mets bullpen that ranks 25th in FIP and 26th in ISO allowed.  #JustPuntIt. Other options – Jorge Polanco, Lourdes Gurriel, Elvis Andrus   OUTFIELD TOP PLAY Christian Yelich, MIL ($4800) I’m now convinced Yelich is the NL MVP.  I used him in all lineups last night, and it paid off handsomely as Yelich hit for the cycle for the second time this year.  Michael Lorenzen is no match for Yelich who now has a .472 wOBA and .372 ISO against RHP in the second half.  He has the second highest xwOBA in the platoon split of any hitter in the majors other than Justin Turner, and Yelich will hit in Miller Park where lefty power is amplified.  He’s worth every penny. Other options – Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, George Springer, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz   VALUE PLAY Mallex Smith/Tommy Pham, TB ($3100/$3300) Much like yesterday, the Rays values are the best in cash with an IRT of 5.6 runs.  Both offer immense speed upside and Pham comes with power as well.  Yovani Gallardo has allowed a .393 wOBA to RHB over the last three years and is prone to the run game as well.  Mallex has 33 SBs this season and has a wonderful shot at five PAs on the road.  He’s the top cash value of the day. Other options – Curtis Granderson, Ryan Braun, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins, Adam Jones, Randal Grichuk, Billy McKinney, Nick Castellanos, Scott Schebler, Kevin Kiermaier   Fantasy Baseball

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