FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 9/12/18

Mike Trout of the Anaheim Angels diving head first into 3rd base

A Yankees/Twins stack in GPP with Shane Bieber/Brad Keller jettisoned some good money into my account yesterday, so let’s keep the magic rolling along tonight!  We have quite a few day games on the slate, so there’s only eight contests for the main.  That said, there’s still Coors Field to deal with (with two good pitchers going there) and a slew of high-quality starters.  I’ll be in chat around 6:15 tonight helping our loyal subs get ready for another night in baseball, and follow me on twitter @jac3600 (and us @FanTeamAdvice).   STARTING PITCHER TOP PLAY Stephen Strasburg, WAS ($9500) There are a lot of pitchers up top that look solid but all come with some risk, so I’m going to write up the best combination of upside and price for cash, and I think that’s Strasburg.  Even though he’s had a “down year”, he’s still struck out 28% of batters this year and is facing a Phillies squad that has the fourth highest K rate against RHP.  The win is not near a given considering his opponent is Aaron Nola, but you can fit in some nice bats while not sacrificing a great deal of upside at the pitchers spot.  Strasburg is by no means a lock, and this pick could change drastically once lineups are released later. Other options – Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, David Price, Patrick Corbin   VALUE PLAY Jon Gray, COL ($7700) Gray remains a great GPP option despite a velocity dip over his last couple of starts.  Pitching in Coors Field never does him any favors, but the Diamondbacks are actually quite awful against RHP, ranking 29th in wRC+ with the seventh highest K rate.  Gray has a solid 25% K rate this season and Arizona’s IRT under five runs says a lot about the opposing pitcher on a Coors slate. Other options – Kyle Hendricks, Carlos Rodon, Felix Pena, Jake Odorizzi   CATCHER/FIRST BASE TOP PLAY Matt Olson, OAK ($3600) The A’s are in Baltimore tonight with an IRT of 5.4 runs, and all are in play against the fly ball tendencies of Andrew Cashner.  Olson hits fifth and has a career .335 ISO against RHP.  Cashner has allowed a 47% FB rate to LHB over the last three years and is backed by a rotten bullpen as well.  At the very least, use him in your Oakland stacks. Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Abreu   VALUE PLAY Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3000) The Red Sox edge out the A’s for the highest IRT on the slate at 5.5 runs, and Moreland should hit no lower than fifth.  Aaron Sanchez has allowed a .391 wOBA and 36% HHR to LHB this season (in limited work), and Mitch Moreland has a .215 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.  Even if he doesn’t produce upside, being a part of the offense gives him a run scoring floor that’s solid for cash. Other options – Ian Desmond, Matt Davidson, Carlos Santana, Luke Voit, Jose Fernandez Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Salvador Perez, Willson Contreras, Welington Castillo   SECOND BASE TOP PLAY Whit Merrifield, KC ($3600) For the third straight day, Merrifield sits at the top of my 2B pool.  He has shown upside in both the power and speed department lately (two more bags stolen last night) and now faces Carlos Rodon who has been incredibly lucky this year.  Rodon has a 3.11 ERA but a 5.22 xFIP and has only struck out 18% of batters this season.  Merrifield has a .379 wOBA against LHP this season. Other options – Gleyber Torres, Rougned Odor, Daniel Murphy, Jed Lowrie   VALUE PLAY D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($3400) I’d be careful about how much you attack Patrick Corbin, even in Coors Field.  However, LeMahieu should lead off and he has a .382 wOBA and .212 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last season.  He strikes out a lot less than his righty power counterparts, and Arizona’s bullpen behind Corbin isn’t the greatest. Other options – David Fletcher, Ketel Marte, Ian Kinsler, Logan Forsythe   THIRD BASE TOP PLAY Nolan Arenado, COL ($4400) Again, Arenado has a tough task against Corbin, but it’s impossible to discount his talent (particularly against left-handers).  Arenado has has a .533 wOBA, .441 ISO, and a 53% HHR against LHP this season, and the Rockies’ IRT is still five runs even against an NL Cy Young dark horse candidate. Other options – Miguel Andujar, Matt Chapman, Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar   VALUE PLAY Eduardo Nunez, BOS ($2300) Nunez really pops on FD at his price tag, even if he’s batting seventh again.  He’s not the best hitter but he does better against same-handed pitching, and Aaron Sanchez has been below average in his career at holding base runners on.  Taking a near punt for the highest projected offense on the slate is a smart move, and allows you to spend up at other spots for high level offensive players. Other options – Jurickson Profar, Hunter Dozier, Taylor Ward   SHORTSTOP TOP PLAY Trevor Story, COL ($4100) Story falls into the same category as the other high priced Rockies as primarily “GPP-only”, but he’s been amazing this year with 32 homers and 25 steals.  Story has a .289 ISO against LHP this season and could double-dong your team to a GPP victory. Other options – Javier Baez, Didi Gregorius, Xander Bogaerts   VALUE PLAY Tim Anderson, CHW ($2700) Tim Anderson is an easy call in cash for me.  He should lead off against the lefty, and Anderson has a solid .188 ISO against LHP this year (good for a player that doesn’t profile for much pop).  Eric Skoglund has allowed a 45% HHR to RHB since the beginning of last year, and he’s backed by a KC bullpen that ranks last in FIP (and not close). Other options – Adalberto Mondesi, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Rondon   OUTFIELD TOP PLAY Mike Trout, LAA ($5100) If you can pay for Trout, I would.  The Angels have an IRT of 5.1 runs against arguably the worst pitcher on the slate in Yovani Gallardo, who has allowed a .394 wOBA and .227 ISO to same-handed hitting over the last three years.  In that span, Trout has rocked RHP for a .425 wOBA and .251 ISO and can run.  What other reasoning is needed? Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, David Peralta, AJ Pollock, Steven Souza, Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Andrew McCutchen, Khris Davis, Christian Yelich, Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon   VALUE PLAY Avisail Garcia, CHW ($2500) I’m a big fan of White Sox hitters in GPP, and some of the cheaper ones (like Garcia) can be used in cash.  Garcia has a 37.5% HHR over his last 15 games and has a .230 ISO against LHP over his last three years.  He shouldn’t hit any lower than cleanup, and the White Sox have an IRT of 4.7 runs despite ranking last in wRC+ against lefties. Other options – Kole Calhoun, Joey Gallo, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Holliday, Joey Gallo, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Nick Williams Fantasy Baseball

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